Vegas Money Moves - Week 15
December 13, 2019
By Micah Roberts
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There’s a monster three-team parlay brewing in Las Vegas for Week 15 that every recreational bettor seems to have a piece of that is going to hit the sportsbooks hard with 6/1 payouts (Bet $100 to win $600). Of course, there’s also the 13/5 (Bet $100 to win $260) two-teamer that is going to cash along with it, teasers, straight bets and the three teams being the root to other teams in larger parlays.
Station Casinos and the South Point, sportsbooks that deal a large percentage of their handle to parlays, both have the Rams, Seahawks, and Patriots as their top public plays. CG Technology books are also seeing the same betting patterns.
“They’re laying -1 with the Rams and taking +2 with Dallas and +107 with the Cowboys money-line,” said CG Technology sportsbook director Tony DiTommaso. It’s our most heavily bet game of the week and we have about a 3-to-1 ratio in ticket counts taking the Rams. Only the Seahawks at a 7-to-2 ticket count ratio is more on-sided,”
DiTommaso said the risk so far isn’t too bad (about $50,000 long) so far because of taking one large wager on the Cowboys.
It’s easy to understand the bettor's mindset with the Rams as the Cowboys ride a three-game losing streak with none of their six wins being against winning teams. It’s a bet-against situation that makes the wager justified and strengthened furthermore by the Rams laying a short price after convincing wins and covers in their last two games.
It appeared the Rams as we knew them were dead after a 45-6 beat-down at home by the Ravens on Monday Night Football in Week 12 for all to see. But the Rams of the past two weeks look similar to last season's Super Bowl squad. Quarterback Jared Goff looks sharp again, his receivers are healthy and running back Todd Gurley is no longer on the load management program and has been unleashed the past two weeks with wins against the Cardinals and Seahawks.
Caesars Palace sportsbook director Jeff Davis said their top public plays this week is “Rams, Rams, and Rams.”
One last note about the Rams that further justifies a wager on them by many bettors is going 7-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last eight road games.
The Seahawks wager this week has similar reasons as the Rams side. It’s a bet against the Panthers who have lost five straight (1-4 ATS) and a bet for the Seahawks coming off a loss. The Seahawks have won six of seven on the road this season (5-2 ATS) and are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has gone from Seahawks -6 to -6.5.
The public Patriots support is kind of a surprise because they’ve failed to cover the spread in their last three games. Joe Public usually holds a grudge against teams like that. But what we have here is the 1-12 Bengals facing the Patriots who have lost their last two. Tom Brady losing three straight starts? It’s happened only once in his career and that was way back in 2002 when he lost four in a row.
In addition to the public jumping all over the Patriots, sharp money also laid the early number.
“We had sharp action laying the Patriots at -9.5, the Titans at -3 (vs. Texans), the Steelers laying -1.5 (vs. Bills), the Browns -2.5 (at Arizona) and the Falcons +11 (at San Francisco),” DiTommaso said. “They also laid -9.5 with the Chiefs, but another group immediately bet +10 with the Broncos after we moved it up.”
Station Casinos is the only book showing Falcons +11.
Davis at Caesars Palace said he’s had a couple of games with sharp groups on opposite sides such as the Texans-Titans battle for the AFC South lead and the Bears-Packers (-4.5) game. He’s also seen large action in the Raiders last game at Oakland against the Jaguars (+7 -120) and the over in the Titans game which has run from 49.5 to 51.5.
The Eagles are tied with the Cowboys for the NFC East lead at 6-7 so it’s an important road game at Washington.
“A really sharp guy laid -4.5 with the Eagles and when we got to -6 we found some Redskins money,” DiTommaso said.
Most of Las Vegas is dealing the Eagles at the dead numbers of -5 and -5.5.
Be sure to check the weather report before betting teams at places like Kansas City, Green Bay, and Pittsburgh.
Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director that has been covering the sports betting industry for the last 15 years.