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NFL

Sunday Blitz – Week 15

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
7 minute read
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GAMES TO WATCH

Bears at Packers (-4 ½, 40 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Green Bay (10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS) can move one step closer towards wrapping up the NFC North title with a victory at home. The Packers rebounded from the Week 12 beatdown at the hands of the 49ers to take care of the Giants and Redskins the last two weeks. Green Bay failed to cash as 13-point favorites last Sunday in a 20-15 triumph over Washington, but the Packers are the only team in the NFL that has not suffered consecutive ATS losses this season.

It may be too little, too late for the defending NFC North champion Bears (7-6 SU, 4-9 ATS) to make the playoffs, but Chicago is riding a three-game winning streak heading into Lambeau Field. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky is coming off consecutive three-touchdown performances against the Lions and Cowboys, while helping Chicago pick up only its fourth cover of the season in a Week 14 home underdog victory over Dallas, 31-24.

The Packers held off the Bears in the season opener at Soldier Field, 10-3 as 3 ½-point underdogs. Green Bay owns a 6-1 record in its last seven meetings with Chicago dating back to 2016, as the Packers have won three straight home matchups. The Bears are listed as a road underdog for the third time this season, but are 0-2 SU/ATS with losses to the Eagles and Rams.

Best Bet: Packers 27, Bears 21

Texans at Titans (-3, 51) – 1:00 PM EST

The race for the top spot in the AFC South likely won’t be decided on Sunday, regardless of who wins this important contest at Nissan Stadium. These two division rivals hook up twice in the final three weeks of the season, as Tennessee (8-5 SU, 7-5-1 ATS) has caught fire following a slow start. The Titans made a change at quarterback seven games ago as Ryan Tannehill has led Tennessee to a 6-1 SU/ATS record to pull into first place tie, while averaging 37.5 points per game during this current four-game winning streak.

The Texans (8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS) fell into the expected letdown spot last week after defeating the Patriots as a home underdog in Week 13. Denver rolled Houston, 38-24 as eight-point underdogs to prevent the Texans from winning three consecutive games for the first time this season. The good news for the Texans this week is they have yet to drop back-to-back contests in 2019, while cashing in five of seven opportunities in the underdog role.

The home team has captured the last six matchups since 2016, as the Texans have been limited to 17 points or fewer in their past three visits to Nashville, all losses. Tennessee is currently on a 7-0 streak to the OVER with Tannehill at quarterback, while Houston is 2-1 to the OVER in three road games with totals closing at 50 or higher.

Best Bet: Houston 28, Tennessee 20

Rams at Cowboys – 4:25 PM EST

Two teams going in opposite directions heading down the stretch, yet the colder team has a clearer path to the playoffs than the hotter squad. The Rams (8-5 SU, 9-4 ATS) captured the NFC title last season, but need to likely win out and receive help to return to the postseason for the third consecutive year. Los Angeles is fresh off its fifth win in the past seven games after routing Seattle last Sunday, 28-12 as short home favorites. The Rams’ defense has stepped up in the second half of the season by limiting six of the previous seven opponents to 17 points or less, while riding a 7-1 run to the UNDER the last eight games.

The Cowboys (6-7 SU, 7-6 ATS) don’t own a winning record with three weeks remaining in the season, but still have the inside track on hosting a first round game and grabbing the NFC East title. Dallas can themselves by beating Philadelphia on the road next week for the season sweep of the Eagles, but the Cowboys need to put an end to a three-game skid immediately. The Cowboys still have not defeated a team that sits above the .500 mark, while possessing a dreadful 0-7 record this season when scoring below 30 points.

Los Angeles bounced Dallas from the playoffs last season with a 30-22 home victory in the divisional round. The Rams covered as 7 ½-point favorites after jumping out to a 23-7 lead before the Cowboys made it interesting late. L.A. has put together an 18-5 road record under head coach Sean McVay, which includes a 35-30 triumph at AT&T Stadium in 2017 as five-point underdogs.

Best Bet: Rams 23, Cowboys 20

SUPERCONTEST PICKS

Kevin Rogers (1-3-1 last week, 34-35-1 this season)

Patriots -9 ½
Texans +3
Dolphins +3 ½
Jaguars +6 ½
Chargers +2 ½

Chris David (2-3 last week, 37-33 this season)

Bears +4
Texans +3
Chiefs -9
Giants -3 ½
Cowboys +1

BEST TOTAL PLAY

UNDER 49 – Browns at Cardinals

This total moved up from 47 earlier in the week as a pair of Heisman Trophy winners from Oklahoma square off with Baker Mayfield facing Kyler Murray. The Browns have not cashed consecutive OVERS this season, coming off a 27-19 victory over the Bengals last week on a 43 total. Cleveland is favored on the road for the fourth time this season as the Browns have scored 13, 19, and 23 points in those games, while the lone OVER came in a 24-19 setback at Denver on a 39 total. The Cardinals have tallied only 24 points in the past two losses to the Steelers and Rams as their offense has faltered since November.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

Tampa Bay is trying to salvage a rough season by winning four of its past five games to improve to 6-7. The Buccaneers travel to Detroit to face the Lions, who are riding a six-game losing streak. Tampa Bay opened as a four-point favorite when the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas released Week 15 lines last week. However, the Bucs have moved up to six-point favorites, which is the biggest number Tampa Bay is laying this season.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Seahawks are coming off their first road loss of the season in a 28-12 defeat to the Rams last week. Seattle hits the highway once again on Sunday to face struggling Carolina, as the Seahawks are 3-0 in the Eastern Time Zone this season. However, the Seahawks were no more than a two-point favorite in any of those wins against the Steelers, Browns, and Eagles. Carolina has dropped five consecutive games since a 5-3 start, but the Panthers are six-point home underdogs as they are receiving points at Bank of America Stadium for the first time since a season-opening loss to the Rams.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

The Broncos have been one of the best bets in the NFL since early October by covering seven of their last nine games. Denver is 2-0 SU/ATS with rookie Drew Lock starting at quarterback the last two weeks, as the former University of Missouri standout returns to his home state to face the Chiefs. However, Kansas City has owned Denver through the years by winning eight straight meetings since 2015, including a 30-6 blowout in October. The Chiefs have won nine games this season and covered eight times in those victories as Kansas City is a nine-point favorite.

You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com

Kevin Rogers can be followed on Twitter at virogers.


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