Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:55 AM

Total Talk - Week 17

Editor's Note: Don't miss out on NFL Winners from Joe Williams on VegasInsider.com this season. Click to win!

We have reached the final weekend of the National Football League regular season. We'll break down the injuries, resting players and other important news and notes to try and help you win as best we can. The final regular season week usually has a handful of strange lines.

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 16 6-10 7-8-1 6-10
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 116-123-1 115-123-2 107-128-5



Divisional Game Results Week 16
Buffalo at New England Over (39) New England 24, Buffalo 17
N.Y. Giants at Washington Over (42.5) N.Y. Giants 41, Washington 35 (OT)
Baltimore at Cleveland Under (49) Baltimore 31, Cleveland 15
Oakland at L.A. Chargers Under (45) Oakland 24, L.A. Chargers 17
Dallas at Philadelphia Under (46.5) Philadelphia 17, Dallas 9
Arizona at Seattle Under (51) Arizona 27, Seattle 13
Green Bay at Minnesota Under (47) Green Bay 23, Minnesota 10

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 17 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.

Chicago at Minnesota: 41 ½ to 36
Tennessee at Houston: 48 ½ to 44
Pittsburgh at Baltimore: 41 to 37
Arizona at L.A. Rams: 49 to 45 
New Orleans at Carolina: 48 to 45
Cleveland at Cincinnati: 46 to 43
 
Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 17 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore: Under 96%
Arizona at L.A. Rams: Under 94%
Oakland at Denver: Under 91%
L.A. Chargers at Kansas City: Under 90%
New Orleans at Carolina: Under 82%
N.Y. Jets at Buffalo: Under 81%
Tennessee at Houston: Under 75%
Cleveland at Cincinnati: Under 72%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'under' (63 percent) in the Miami at New England matchup, and heavy lean on the 'over' both the Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants and Atlanta at Tampa Bay (61 percent) contests. As many of you know, the last week of the regular season is often the most difficult to handicap and while we’ve had plenty of great games to follow, Week 17 is borderline unwatchable at times.

Handicapping Week 17

All 16 games are divisional matchups on Sunday. As many of you know, the last week of the regular season is often the most difficult to handicap and while we’ve had plenty of great games to follow, Week 17 is borderline unwatchable at times.

Week 17 Total Results (2011-2018)
Year Over/Under
2018 7-9
2017 8-8
2016 9-7
2015 5-11
2014 6-10
2013 6-10
2012 8-8
2011 9-7


If you were to lean one way or another on your total wagers this week, the 'under' is probably the better option. 

We saw the 'under' go 9-7 last season and that's been the common theme in the finale with the low side going 70-58 (55%) overall the last eight seasons in Week 17.

Week 16 Total Results
Matchups Over/Under Year to Date
Divisional 1-3 32-41
NFC vs. NFC 4-0 26-22
AFC vs. AFC 2-2 22-21-1
AFC vs. NFC 3-1 30-28

Week 17 Action

Cleveland at Cincinnati : This is a rather meaningless game, as the Bengals have locked up the No. 1 overall pick, but no one is expected to be rested. They'll play this one like regular. One thing to watch, Browns WR Odell Beckham Jr. last (illness) is questionable to play, so that's an injury to keep an eye on. These teams just met on Dec. 8 in Cleveland, and the Browns came away with a 27-19 win and 'over' result. The over has cashed in three straight for the Bengals, while going 3-3 in Cleveland's past six road outings. 

Chicago at Minnesota: The Vikings are not expected to play their starters in Week 17, while Vikings RB Dalvin Cook (shoulder) is ruled out, and RB Alexander Mattison (ankle) is listed as questionable. MLB Eric Kendricks (quadriceps) will also sit, after he created mayhem with two fumble recoveries last week. The status for the Vikings' starters is why the line is listed in the mid-30's, and could potentially fall further.

 Atlanta at Tampa Bay: The line is rather high for this game, but there are a few things to watch. Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston (right thumb, knee) is considered questionable, while WR Chris Godwin (hamstring) has been ruled out. Falcons WR Julio Jones (knee, shoulder) was limited in practice, and a question mark as well. If Jones and Winston are out, the line is likely to plummet.

N.Y. Jets at Buffalo: The Biulls are locked into the No. 5 seed in the AFC playoff picture, so watch their players. Head coach Sean McDermott didn't give bettors much information, only telling local beat writer Joe Buscaglia that they will "play a majority of the guys", while not getting into specifics. You can expect the Bills to treat this similar to a preseason game, as QB Josh Allen might play a couple of offensive series, perhaps the first quarter or into the second quarter. McDermott did confirm QB Matt Barkley would see time. For the Jets, both QBs Robby Anderson (calf) and Demaryius Thomas (hamstring) are each question marks.

L.A. Chargers at Kansas City: The Chargers are likely to be at full strength in this one, while the Chiefs haven't revealed whether or not anyone will be resting. While yes, technically the Chiefs can get to the two-seed and a first-round bye with a win and a loss by the Patriots to the Dolphins, don't bet on that. If the Chiefs are scoreboard watching, and things get out of hand in Foxboro, the Chiefs could potentially rest guys in the second half, so beware.

Tennessee at Houston: The Titans are still jostling for a playoff spot, so you can expect they'll be playing hard. They'll be without CB Adoree' Jackson (foot) and WR Adam Humphries (ankle) for the matchup. This will be a game to watch closely. If the Chiefs end up beating the Chiefs in the 1:00 p.m. window, you can expect several stars for the Texans to be held out. They would be locked into the No. 4 seed in Kansas City wins. QB DeShaun Watson (back) is listed as questionable, while WR Will Fuller (groin) is out. WRs DeAndre Hopkins (illness) and Kenny Stills (knee) are each questionable, while OT Laremy Tunsil (ankle) and CB Bradley Roby (hamstring) are also question marks. Expect a flood of stars resting if K.C. wins.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville: Colts RB Jordan Wilkins (ankle) has starred lately, but he has been ruled out for this one. The Jaguars also have a slew of key players listed on the injury report, including QB Gardner Minshew II (shoulder), CB A.J. Bouye (wrist), RB Leonard Fournette (neck) and WR DeDe Westbrook (neck, shoulder) all listed as questionable. 

Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants: The Eagles cannot afford to take their foot off the gas, so they'll be playing to win and lock up the NFC East Division title. The Eagles have hit the 'under' in five of the past seven games, including their 23-17 win over the Giants Dec. 9 in Philly. The 'over' has connected in six of the past eight meetings in this series, including 7-0 in the past seven battles at MetLife Stadium. TE Zach Ertz (ribs) is out for the finale, so that hurts.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore: The Ravens will rest their starters, as they have the No. 1 overall seed sewn up. QB Robert Griffin III is expected to start, although third-string QB Trace McSorley might also see some time. For the Steelers, they'll be down RB James Conner (thigh), and C Maurkice Pouncey (knee) will also be inactive. This one is likely to be a defensive slog, which is par for the course in Baltimore, whomever ends up playing. The under is 5-0 in the past five meetings in Balto.

Arizona at L.A. Rams: The Cards and Rams are each eliminated from the playoff picture, but most players should play as usual. However, QB Kyler Murray (hamstirng) is considered a game-time decision, and with nothing to play for it's unlikely he is pressed into duty. Look for QB Brett Hundley to get the start under center. The under has connected in four of the past five meetings in this series, and 4-1 in the past five battles in SoCal, too.

Oakland at Denver: The Raiders are expected to be without RB Josh Jacobs (shoulder), as the rookie is dealing with shoulder issue and skin infection. Technically, the Raiders still have a shot at a postseason spot, so WR Tyrell Williams (foot) is available, so that's good news. The under is 4-0 in the past four meetings in Denver, and 6-0 in the previous six meetings in this series overall.

Heavy Expectations

There are four games listed with a spread of double-digit points or more for Week 17, with the home team listed as favorites in two of them. The totals range from 49.5 to 51 and cashing a total could come down to whether or not the favorite lays off the gas in the second-half.

New Orleans at Carolina (1:00 p.m. ET): The good news for potential 'over' bettors is that the Panthers plan to get the ball into the hands of RB Christian McCaffrey as much as possible, as he needs 67 receiving yards to be just the third player in NFL history to post 1,000 rushing and receiving yards in the same season. The bad news is that WR DJ Moore (concussion) is out. For the Saints, they're still fighting for a first-round bye, and QB Drew Brees (thumb) and WR Michael Thomas (hand) are ready to roll. The under is 12-4 in the past 16 meetings in Carolina, but the over is 5-1 in the previous six in the series.

Miami at New England (1:00 p.m. ET): The Patriots are still fighting for a first-round bye, and they cannot afford to take their foot off the gas, either. That's all well and good, but their offense has struggled to find consistency for most of the season. The 'over' has connected in five of the past six games overall, while going 5-2 in the past seven inside the division. The under is 9-3 in New England's past 12 inside the division, while going 18-8 in their past 26 as a favorite.

Green Bay at Detroit (1:00 p.m. ET): The Packers have a lot to play for, as they could still work their way up to the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC if things break a certain way. Don't expect the visitors to rest anyone in this game. RB Jamaal Williams (shoulder) is doubtful for the game, but that's the only concern. The under has cashed in eight straight inside the division for the Pack. The under is 6-2 in Detroit's past eight inside the division, too.

Washington at Dallas (4:25 p.m. ET): The Cowboys are expected to have QB Dak Prescott (shoulder) under center, and they'll be fighting for the NFC East Division title if the Eagles lose against the Giants in New York. Both games are at 4:25, so there is no chance the Cowboys are scoreboard watching and resting anyone. They'll keep going hard to the end, as best they can, at least. The over has connected in seven of the past eight meetings in this series, including 4-0 in the past four in Big D.

Under the Lights

San Francisco at Seattle (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The NFC West division title is on the line when the Niners and Seahawks meet on Sunday Night Football in the standalone primetime game of the weekend. It's going to be a war. The over has cashed in four straight for the 49ers inside the NFC West, while going 7-2 in their past nine overall. The over is 7-3 in Seattle's past 10 inside the division, while going 7-2 in the past nine against winning teams. The over is 6-2 in the past eight meetings, too, including the Monday Night battle at Levi's Stadium on Nov. 11, a 27-24 win by Seattle.

Fearless Predictions

It isn't too late. It could still happen. After several weeks of spinning my wheels in neutral, going 2-2 with the juice, or worse - losing weeks, Week 16 was finally a decent, positive week. A result of (+225) was very nice, including hitting the three-team total teaser. Still, I continue to search for that elusive sweep. The deficit is down to (-$270) for the season. We'll look to keep it going in Week 17, hopefully getting back in black soon before it's all over. As CD (see below) would say, always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Oakland-Denver 41
Best Under: San Francisco-Seattle 47
Best First-Half Under: San Francisco-Seattle 24

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7, +135)
Under 52 ½ Washingt-Dallas
Under 44 Pittsburgh-Baltimore
Over 37 ½ Miami-New England

CD's Best Bets

Chris David finally hit the wall last week with a 0-3 mark in his "Best Bet" selections on the "Bet And Collect" podcast last week and he now sits at 27-21 (55%) on the season.  For this week's Podcast, CD finishes off the regular season with three plays that are on meaningful matchups.

CD's Best Bets for this week are focused on three games:

Tennessee at Houston
Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants
Washington at Dallas


Listen Here as he provides his thoughts and selections starting at 36:00 of Episode 32

Joe Williams can be reached on Twitter at @JoeWilliamsVI


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