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Sunday’s Tip Sheet

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
7 minute read
Total Talk | Line Movements - HOU/KC | Line Movements - SEA/GB | Best Bets

Texans at Chiefs – 3:05 PM EST – CBS

Betting Odds: Kansas City -9 ½, Total 51
Provided by DraftKings (IN, NJ & PA only)

The only rematch from the regular season in this weekend’s divisional playoff round takes place at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. Houston (11-6 SU, 8-8-1 ATS) was on its way to an early postseason exit as the AFC South champions dug themselves a 16-0 hole in last Saturday’s Wild Card matchup with Buffalo. However, the Texans did not repeat last season’s Wild Card performance in a 21-7 setback to the Colts as Houston rallied past Buffalo in overtime, 22-19 to cash as 2 ½-point favorites.

Quarterback Deshaun Watson led the comeback with a touchdown run late in the third quarter, followed by a two-point conversion to cut the deficit to 16-8. Following a field goal early in the fourth quarter, the Texans grabbed their first lead of the afternoon on a Watson touchdown pass to Carlos Hyde for a 19-16 advantage. The Bills tied the game in the final seconds with a 47-yard field goal, but the Texans escaped on a short field goal by Ka’imi Fairbairn in overtime to grab the narrow cover.

The Chiefs (12-4 SU, 10-5-1 ATS) wrapped up their fourth consecutive AFC West title, but have only one AFC Championship to show for it. Kansas City dropped a heartbreaker to New England in overtime last January, 37-31, preventing the Chiefs from making their first Super Bowl since the 1969 season, when they won the franchise’s only championship.

Kansas City posted a perfect September by winning all four games, including three victories away from Arrowhead Stadium. The most notable triumph came in Week 3 against Baltimore, 33-28, handing the Ravens one of their two defeats on the season. However, the Chiefs lost three of their next four games, including home setbacks to the Colts, Texans, and Packers in October. The biggest loss suffered was 2018 MVP Patrick Mahomes, who sustained a dislocated kneecap in a Week 7 rout of Denver.

Mahomes miraculously missed only two games, as Kansas City split a pair of home contests against Green Bay and Minnesota. In Mahomes’ return at Tennessee in Week 10, the All-Pro quarterback threw for 446 yards and three touchdowns, but the Chiefs squandered a nine-point fourth quarter lead in a 35-32 defeat. That would be the last loss suffered in the regular season by Kansas City as Andy Reid’s club finished the campaign with six consecutive victories to lock up the second seed in the AFC playoffs.

Circling back to the Week 6 matchup at Arrowhead, the Texans fell into a 17-3 hole against the Chiefs, but Houston stormed back by outscoring Kansas City, 20-0 in the second quarter to grab a 23-17 halftime edge. Only 15 more points were scored in the final two quarters to barely eclipse the total of 54 ½, but Houston picked up the 31-24 victory thanks to a one-yard touchdown scramble by Watson with 6:17 remaining in regulation. The Texans cashed as short 3 ½-point underdogs, while outrushing the Chiefs, 192-53 and owning nearly a 2-to-1 time of possession advantage.

Playing at home in the playoffs hasn’t been kind to the Chiefs since 1995 as Kansas City is 1-7 in its last eight postseason contests at Arrowhead. Granted, the lone victory came against Indianapolis in the divisional playoffs last season to end that long hex, but it is still a sore spot for Chiefs’ fans as the franchise is 2-5 in the postseason since Reid took over as head coach in 2012.

Since this is the lone rematch out of the four divisional affairs, teams seeking revenge have not fared well the second time around. Dating back to 2015, teams that lost the regular season meeting and hooked up in the second round of the playoffs posted a 3-7 SU and 5-4-1 ATS record. Favorites own a 1-2-1 ATS mark in this stretch with the lone chalk team to win and cover being the Falcons in 2016, who avenged a three-point loss at Seattle to cruise past the Seahawks at home in the playoffs, 36-20 as 6 ½-point favorites.

Seahawks at Packers – 6:40 PM EST – FOX

Betting Odds: Green Bay -4 ½, Total 47
Provided by DraftKings (IN, NJ & PA only)

The final team to take the field for the first time in the postseason is Green Bay (13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS), who are back in the playoffs following a two-year absence. The last time the Packers grabbed the NFC North crown came back in 2016, as Green Bay reached the conference championship before getting rolled by Atlanta. Now, the Packers are back atop the division as Matt LaFleur was the only first-year head coach out of seven to finish with a winning record in 2019.

Green Bay lost only once at Lambeau Field this season by posting a 7-1 mark with the lone blemish coming against Philadelphia in a Thursday night defeat, 34-27 in Week 4. The Packers were blown out in a pair of road routs against the Chargers and 49ers, but Green Bay swept the six games from the NFC North, including a pair of wins over Minnesota. The defense limited eight opponents to 16 points or less, while compiling a solid 7-3 ATS mark as a single-digit favorite.

The Seahawks (12-5 SU, 8-8-1 ATS) continued their domination of the highway by improving to 8-1 away from CenturyLink Field in a 17-9 triumph at Philadelphia in the Wild Card round. Seattle moved to 10-1 since 2005 in its first game of the postseason, while picking up its first road playoff victory since 2015 at Minnesota.

The Eagles lost quarterback Carson Wentz in the first quarter to a head injury, as Philadelphia’s offense didn’t reach the end zone with backup Josh McCown by getting held to three field goals. Seahawks’ running back Marshawn Lynch scored a touchdown for the second straight game after returning to Seattle prior to Week 17 to give them a 10-3 halftime lead. Quarterback Russell Wilson hooked up with rookie wide receiver D.K. Metcalf on a 53-yard touchdown connection to put the Seahawks in control, 17-6 as Seattle owns a perfect 6-0 record in the Eastern Time Zone.

Seattle and Green Bay didn’t meet this season, but this has been a series dominated by the home team. In the last eight matchups since 2009, the home squad is a perfect 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS, which includes a 27-24 victory by Seattle at CenturyLink Field in 2018.

However, Wilson and head coach Pete Carroll have never won at Lambeau Field in three tries by losing in three straight seasons from 2015 through 2017. The offense didn’t produce much by scoring 17, 10, and 9 points in those defeats. The most recent playoff hookup came in January 2015 in Seattle when the Seahawks rallied from a 16-0 deficit to shock the Packers in overtime, 28-22 on a Wilson 35-yard touchdown strike to Jermaine Kearse.

Under Carroll, the Seahawks have never won a divisional round game after grabbing a victory in the Wild Card round. In 2010, 2012, 2015, and 2016, Seattle fell in the second round on the road, with three losses coming by a touchdown or more. In the two seasons that the Seahawks reached the Super Bowl in 2013 and 2014, they played both games at home each time and have never made a Super Bowl while winning at least one road game.

You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com

Kevin Rogers can be followed on Twitter at virogers.


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