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AFC-NFC Props – Best Bets

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
9 minute read
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NFL Championship Weekend
Expert Prop Picks

Tennessee at Kansas City

-- The Tennessee Titans and Kansas City Chiefs kick off the two-game slate at 3:05 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium Sunday, and the player props, game props and team props are in. We'll take a look at the **DraftKings (IN, NJ & PA only) and select the best plays for Sunday's big event.

Player Props

The list for player props is rather long, but realistically there are just a handful of options worth selecting for the first touchdown scorer. The best bet for the Chiefs would be TE Travis Kelce (+650), and he is a pretty solid value to score the first touchdown. The top running backs, RB Derrick Henry (+550) of the Titans, and RB Damien Williams (+550) of the Chiefs, are the favorites to score first. However, if you're trying to choose between the two, Henry is a slam-dunk. He is just rolling right along right now and taking no prisoners. The top wideout on the board for first touchdown might be a surprise, but Titans WR RB A.J. Brown (+1400) is worth a roll of the dice at this price point. Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill (+650) is likely the first player who comes to mind for bettors, but you can get more than double the money on Tennessee's top downfield target.

As far as the passing yardage props are concerned, Titans QB Ryan Tannehill (Under 235.5, -134) seems like a slam-dunk play at this level. He passed for just 88 yards in last week's win against Baltimore, and 72 yards in the Wild-Card win in New England, as the offensive game plan was Derrick run right, Derrick up the middle and Derrick to the left. In the first matchup, a 35-32 win in Nashville, Tannehill threw for just 181 yards at Nissan Stadium, too. It isn't as clear-cut on Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (Over/Under 302.5), although he did throw for 446 yards in the previous meeting, which was a season high. So a light-unit bet on Mahomes might be warranted.

The over/under on total completions for Tannehill is at 16.5, too. Again, he had 15 total completions combined in the first two playoff games, so going (Under 16.5, +100) isn't a bad play. As far as Mahomes is concerned, the total number of touchdown passes is set at 1.5, and I love the QB Patrick Mahomes (Over 1.5, -250) prop, although it's a rather high amount of juice. Still, there almost seems to be no scenario where he doesn't hit this, barring injury.

If you're looking at the props for an intercepting player, I don't know why. Maybe it's because he went to Middle Tennesssee...as Chiefs DB Charvarius Ward (YES, +700) sticks out to me. 

 If you want to just cheer for a Chiefs all-out pass storm and not do a lot of thinking while you're watching the game, the Mahomes parlay prop of 350 or more passing yards and three or more touchdowns might be an interesting bet, especially at (+325). The prop of Henry going for 150 or more rushing yards and two or more touchowns (+425) pays rather handsomely, too, but it's a bit of a long shot. He has been killing it lately, but has to take a step back at some point, doesn't he?

I also like the Mahomes (OVER, 18.5 rushing yards, -124) prop, as it won't take much for him to hit this. He did lead the team in rushing last time out, too. As far as total rushing attempts, the Henry (OVER, 22.5 rushing attempts, -112) is the way to go. The Titans offense relies heavily upon him, and he'll see the ball early and often in this one, perhaps approaching double digits just in the first quarter alone.

If you're looking to receivers, the Brown (OVER, 61.5 yards, -112) looks legit. He is their downfield threat, and he'll have at least one big gainer with several other short to intermediate targets. The Titans like to work it to their tight end, too, so Jonnu Smith (OVER, 26.5 yards, -112) is an intriguing play, too. And, of course, Tyreek Hill (OVER, 75.5 yards, -112) looks awfully tasty, as well.

Green Bay at San Francisco

-- The Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers battle at 6:40 p.m. ET at Levi's Stadium in the second game Sunday, and the player props, game props and team props are in. We'll take a look at the DraftKings (IN, NJ & PA only) and select the best plays for Sunday's big event.

Player Props

-- As you would expect, the first touchdown scorer is heavily skewed to Packers RB Aaron Jones (+650). In fact, the next options on the board are a trio of 49ers - (Raheem Mostert, George Kittle, Tevin Coleman, +850). No disrespect to the run game for the 49ers, but my money is on Kittle at those odds. He has done it consistently all season long. The top wideout on the board is 49ers WR Deebo Samuel (+900),although I do not like that one bit. In fact, most of the wideouts in this game are rather unappealing from a prop perspective. The only one who stands out to me as a nice value is Packers WR Davante Adams (+1000).

Looking to the passing totals for each signal caller, I don't know if it is just because I've watched a lot of football over the years, State Farm commercials have Packers QB Aaron Rodger in my face a lot more, or the inexperience of 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo has me concerned. But Rodgers (Over 239.5, -112) vs. Garoppolo (Over 249.5, -112) seems like a slam-dunk play to me. At the very least, if you're feeling the 49ers to win this game handily like they did in the first meeting, Rodgers will be slinging the ball a lot more, racking up garbage yardage through the air. Either way, Rodgers is still the better play here. Rodgers inched over the line at 243 yards last week in a win over Seattle. Yes, he threw for just 104 yards in that blowout loss in San Francisco earlier in the season, but you can expect much better results in this go-around.

The over/under on touchdown passes by Rodgers (Over 1.5, +100) is a solid play at even-money, too. He had two touchdown strikes last week against the Seahawks, and even had a TD in that blowout against the Niners, hooking up with Adams. As far as Garoppolo is concerned, I'd go lightly on (Under 1.5, +105) since it is plus-money. He has thrown one or no touchdown passes in each of his past four, and five of the previous six outings. Going head-to-head total passing yards, it's (Garoppolo, -130). vs. (Rodgers, +105). The thinking here is that Rodgers will be passing more than Garoppolo, so take Packers signal caller as a good value play.

I know that the 49ers have a sturdy rushing defense, but I can't help but like Packers RB Aaron Jones (OVER, 64.5 yards, -112). He is going to be the factor on the ground for the Pack, especially early on. You can bet player vs. player rushing yards, too, and the prop is the Mostert (+140) vs. A. Jones (-177). It's Jones all day, everyday here.

The Packers have been using Jones out of the backfield more, too, so the (OVER, 21.5 receiving yards, -112) prop looks awfully interesting. Every once in a while 49ers FB Kyle Juszcyzk (OVER, 13.5, +120) seems to get free, so this is worth taking a flier at plus-money. 49ers WR Kendrick Bourne (OVER, 20.5, -106) is the way to go, too. He had 40 yards and a touchdown vs. Minnesota last week, he had 29 yards in the regular-season finale, and 27 yards in the first meeting with the Packers, hitting the mark in each of those games.

You can also pick an intercepting player, and if anyone gets one in this game it will be 49ers DB K'Waun Williams (YES, +900). 

Team Props

Looking to the team props, there is an 'Away Team Points' section. Hammer both of these. The Titans (Over 22.5, -125) and Packers (Over 19.5, -124) are each astute plays. Tennessee's offense has been rolling along, and the Packers aren't going to get housed again like last time against the 49ers. They scored a total of just 19 points in their two showings in the state of California during the regular season, but I expect much better from them in this one.

Conference Finals Specials

There are some props where you can pick one of the highest scoring teams of the weekend. Chiefs (+100), 49ers (+215), Titans (+475) or Packers (+750). Call me crazy, but if I were to sit back at the sportsbook on Sunday and cheer for any of these props, I'd throw a few pieces of lettuce at the Packers and hope Rodgers goes off. More than seven and a half times return is quite attractive, although the Chiefs is the more obvious play here.

The highest scoring game can be bet, too. It's Titans-Chiefs (-177) or Packers-49ers (+140). We saw both of these matchups during the regular season, with 67 total points in the first meeting in Tennessee, and 45 points in the first meeting in Santa Clara in the NFC game. It wouldn't be surprising to see quite a few less points in the AFC game, and the Packers to score a few more in the NFC game, after getting embarrassed 37-8 in the first matchup. The NFC is the play here.

**Prop Odds provided by DraftKings (IN, NJ & PA only)

**Odds Subject to Change

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