SB Props – Novelty Best Bets
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
Super Bowl 54
Novelty Props - Best Bets
The prop market in the Super Bowl has exploded beyond belief over the past decade or so, as it's a market where everyone is looking to pounce on numbers they believe to be mistakes and/or shop around at various outlets to get the best numbers available. That's always key, but definitely for Super Bowl props.Heads or Tails Props
Coin Toss Odds per DraftKings (T&C's Apply, 21+, NJ, IN only)
And before I get to the couple novelty props I do like this year, I do have to make a comment about the always popular coin toss prop. Everyone loves to bet heads or tails with this prop, but sportsbooks still put a few cents juice on either side to take their cut. It's literally a coin flip though and here you are paying juice.If you are betting large sums of money on this prop, using a sportsbook and paying the vig on this prop may be your only option (and again, why bet large sums of money on an actual coin flip while paying vig), but if you are doing it for recreational purposes for $5, $10, $50, or even a few hundred, try to find someone you are watching the game with to bet the coin toss with at even money. The majority of people watch the Super Bowl at a party or in a large group, so finding someone to take the other side of the age old question “heads or tails” shouldn't be too hard. At least that way you are saving yourself some juice win or lose, and it's just the smarter way to do things in my view. But to each their own.
Now that that is out of the way, let's get to a couple of novelty props offered out there that can promote some discussion. You still shouldn't be unloading large chunks of your bankroll on these things, but if you are aiming to add some entertainment value to the game and hopefully making a few extra bucks while doing so, consider these plays.
Best Bet #1:
Total Players to Attempt a Pass: Under 2.5 (-155)
Super Bowl 54 Props Odds provided by BetMGM Odds Subject to Change (T&C's Apply, 21+, NJ only)
This is always one of my favorite props to look at every year, and for years I loved to always take the 'over' at plus money odds. I don't know if that was because I loved when we called the halfback option play while I was a running back in high school, or I'm just a fan of wanting to see guys pull out some trickery in the biggest game of the year. In recent years the 'over' has paid off too as it's connected in two of the last three Super Bowls and three of the last six. But after doing much more digging on the history of this in Super Bowls, I've come to realize that the 'under' for this prop is always slightly juiced, but in terms of the historical sense, it should be juiced much more.
In the 53 Super Bowls we've already had in history, only 20 times have we had at least three players attempt a pass. That converts to 37.7% and if you were to convert that percentage into money line odds, that equates to what should be about a +165 price. That alone suggests there is some value on going low.
| Super Bowl - Passing Attempt History | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Taking it a step further, in those 20 Super Bowls that we did have a third player attempt a pass, the majority of them came because the games turned into blowouts. Only four of those 20 times was the eventual winning margin in single digits (SB 52, 51, 5, and 3) as the average margin of victory in those games turned out to be 20.1 points. It's tough to see this game turn into a blowout all things considered (if it does, it does), and when you consider that historically only six of those 20 past occurrences had a point spread of -3 or less entering the game, it's probably not a spot where either side wants to get too cute. The average point spread for the favorite in those 20 Super Bowls comes in at -7.65 points, much higher then this year's number.
Furthermore, if you want to narrow it down to a more modern view of the game, yes, it has happened in two of the past three Super Bowls and three of the past six, but from Super Bowl 30 until now, the grand total sits at just four. That means that you would have cashed this 'under' 20 times in the last 24 Super Bowls, and if you convert that percentage (83.3 %) to a projected money line price, that comes in around -495. Are you starting to see a trend here?
But what about the 2019 Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers respectively you ask?
Well, had you theoretically been betting this prop in 49ers games this year, the 'over' 2.5 players attempting a pass would have connected four different times (4 out of 18 or 22.2 %) , but only twice by San Francisco's hand. Both times the 49ers had someone else attempt a pass it was a WR (Dante Pettis and Emmanuel Sanders) and oddly enough, they each completed their attempt. But Cleveland tried some trickery against SF as well, and the regular season meeting with Green Bay saw the Packers backup QB get some snaps as well after things were well decided.
In terms of the Chiefs games, the 'over' on this prop would have cashed five different times (5 out of 18 or 27.7%), but only three times by Kansas City's hand. Once, KC's punter attempted a fake, there was the game against Denver when Mahomes got injured and Matt Moore had to come in, and I didn't read the game logs, but I suspect that was the case (at least for a play) in Week 1 when Moore went 0-for-1 throwing the ball as well.
Going the trickery route just wasn't really the mode of operation for either of these teams. And really when you think about it, why would Kansas City want someone else other than the reigning MVP throwing the ball, or why would the 49ers, who invested so much in acquiring and signing Jimmy G want to do the same.
Sure, the element of surprise is always a great thing, but if this game is going to end up being close throughout as this point spread suggests, barring an injury, the only two guys attempting passes in Super Bowl 54 should be Mahomes and Garoppolo. Again, you convert those percentage of times it did happen into money line odds (22.2% for SF and 27.7% for KC) and you still come up with a theoretical line that should be +260 or greater on the 'over'.
Best Bet #2:
Jersey Number of First TD Scorer: Under 26.5 (-143)
Super Bowl 54 Props Odds provided by BetMGM Odds Subject to Change (T&C's Apply, 21+, NJ only)
No historical Super Bowl deep dive done for this one, but I did go back and look at who scored the first touchdowns in each game for both the Niners and Chiefs this year. That works out to 36 total games (18 each), and in 24 of those 36 games we had the first TD scorer come in with a number of 26 or less. San Francisco did play that game in Washington during brutal wet weather where a TD wasn't scored at all too.
| Super Bowl 54 TD Scoring Jersey Numbers | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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For KC, the leader in first TD's was #10 Tyreek Hill (4), followed by #26 Lesean McCoy (3) and then #11 Demarcus Robinson, #87 Travis Kelce and #17 Mecole Hardman tied at (2) apiece. Yes, Kelce was able to grab two initial TD's for the Chiefs this year, but even including those, KC only had 3 of 18 games this year where this 'over' would have cashed, as the other one was scored by #31 Darrel Williams who's now on IR. That's 15 times in KC games that this 'under' would have cashed and that's tough to dismiss, especially when the bulk of KC's receiving core has numbers below this current line.
For San Francisco, the results were a bit more spread out, as their top initial TD scorer was split between #19 Deebo Samuel and #84 Kendrick Bourne with three apiece. Other key weapons like #31 Raheem Mostert (twice) and #85 George Kittle (once) will be the names mentioned for those considering the 'over', but in the 17 games where the 49ers did score at least one TD, the historical results this year are 9-8 in favor of the 'under'. WR #11 Marquise Goodwin is currently on IR so you could theoretically put it at a dead heat for this game, but then you are looking at just a 50% success rate and that's only if San Fran scores first.
When it comes down to it, this is more then a reasonable price to take the 'under' when you do see that the majority of the offensive weapons (combined) do fit into the 26 or under range with their jersey number. Heck, we haven't even talked about the possibility of a defensive score. Who's more likely to return a turnover, one of the heavier guys in the front seven with numbers in the 50's or above, or a defensive back that could just as easily be 26 or under. I mean, even the great Richard Sherman and all his playoff INT's is in play on this 'under' as he currently wears #25.
This prop is juiced to the 'under' for multiple reasons, and the way I see it, unless one of the two great TE's breaks the seal on touchdown scoring in Super Bowl 54, this 'under' play should get you to the payout window.
Where to place a bet this NFL Season?
- Use our exclusive BetMGM Bonus Code VIBONUS1500 to unlock BetMGM’s welcome offer for new sportsbook users!
- Compare the latest NFL Odds from the best sportsbooks before placing a bet on this week's games.
- Check out the North Carolina Sportsbooks just before they launch legal online sports betting.
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