NFL

Tech Trends – Week 1

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

Thursday, September 10

HOUSTON at KANSAS CITY (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

Texans 9-3-2 vs. spread last 14 as regular season visitor and 8-3 last 11 as regular season dog.
Chiefs closed 2019 with wins and covers in last nine, covering last six at Arrowhead (all as chalk) after dropping preceding 4 and 8 of 9 vs. number as host.
KC also “over” 44-23 since 2016, and last three meetings “over” since 2017.
Teams split two games at Arrowhead last season.

Tech edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends

Sunday, September 13

MIAMI at NEW ENGLAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Prior to upset in Week 17 last December, Dolphins had lost and failed to cover previous seven at Gillette Stadium, and had lost 10 in a row outright at Foxborough.
Dolphins closed fast in 2019, covering 9 of last 12, all as dog.
Patriots dropped 5 of last 7 vs. number in 2019, and now “under” 19-10 since mid 2018.

Tech Edge: Slight to Patriots and “under,” based on extended trends

CLEVELAND at BALTIMORE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Head coach Kevin Stefanski debut for Browns.
Ravens closed 2019 regular season winning last 12 outright and covering 8 of last 9.
Browns, however, did deal Baltimore its only regular season home loss in Week 4 and have covered last two at M&T Bank Stadium.
Cleveland only covered 4 of last 12 a season ago after that win over Ravens.

Tech Edge: Ravens, based on recent trends

NY JETS at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Road team has won and covered last four meetings.
Bills were just 1-4 vs. spread at Orchard Park last season.
Buffalo on 23-9 “under” run since early 2018.
Jets “under” 5-1 last six in 2019.

Tech Edge: Jets and “under,” based on series and “totals” trends

LAS VEGAS at CAROLINA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Head coach Matt Rhule debut for Panthers.
Raiders lost 5 of last 6 SU and dropped 5 of last 7 vs. line in 2019.
Also “under” 6-1 last 7 in 2019, and “under” 21-11 since 2018.
Panthers however closed 2019 dropping last 8 outright and just 1-6-1 vs. spread in those games, and only 3-7-1 vs. number last 11 at Charlotte since mid 2018.
Panthers “over” 11-5 last season.

Tech Edge: Slight to Raiders, based on team trends

SEATTLE at ATLANTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Seahawks on 9-3-1 spread run away from CenturyLink Field in regular season.
Visiting team is 12-4-1 vs. number in Seattle regular-season games since late 2018.
Falcons covered last 4 and 7 of last 9 in 2019, also winning 6 of last 8 outright.
'Hawks “over” 16-8 in regular season play since mid 2018.

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends

PHILADELPHIA at WASHINGTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Head coach Ron Rivera debut for Washington (if he’s healthy).
Philly has won and covered last four in series, both meetings “over” last season.
Washington 2-8 vs. points last 10 at FedEx Field.

Tech Edge: Eagles, based on team and series trends

CHICAGO at DETROIT (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Bears have won all four meetings since 2018, covering three of those.
Though note Chicago enters 2020 on a 4-13 spread skid.
Bears were 1-7 vs. line as visitor in 2019 after winning and covering 4 of last 5 away in 2018.
Lions dropped last nine outright a year ago and covered just 2 of last 11 in 2019.
Detroit also “under” 11-2 last 13 at Ford Field.

Tech Edge: Slight to Bears and “under,” based on series and “totals” trends

INDIANAPOLIS at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Jags lost and failed to cover 6 of last 8 a year ago.
But they have won and covered last four as series host vs. Colts (five if counting London game in 2016) and were 3-1 vs. line getting 6 or more points a year ago.
Jags 8-1-1 vs. number against Indy since 2015.

Tech Edge: Jags, based on series trends

GREEN BAY at MINNESOTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Packers won and covered both meetings last season.
Vikings however have won and covered last four and five of six openers under Mike Zimmer.
“Unders” 9-2 last 11 in series.

Tech Edge: “Under,” based on series trends

L.A. CHARGERS at CINCINNATI (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)

Chargers fell apart late 2019, losing and failing to cover 6 of last 7.
Bolts 3-7 vs. line last ten away from home, and just 1-8 laying points a year ago.
Cincy only 3-10-1 vs. spread last 14 at Paul Brown Stadium but was 3-2-1 last six as dog in 2019.

Tech Edge: Slight to Bengals, based on team trends

ARIZONA at SAN FRANCISCO (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)

Cards played Niners tough last season and very unfortunate to get push out of second meeting after covering in desert.
Big Red 4-0-1 vs. spread last five in series and on 11-5-1 spread uptick since late 2018.
Cards 6-1-1 vs. spread away in 2019, now 7-1-1 vs. line last nine as a visitor.
Niners were just 3-4-1 vs. spread at home in regular season of 2019.

Tech Edge: Cards, based on series and team trends

TAMPA BAY at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)

Bruce Arians only 5-10-1 vs. line in his Bucs debut season a year ago.
Note - his second year at Arizona in 2014 produced 11-5 SU and spread marks.
Bucs “over” 12-4 in 2019, Arians teams now “over” 27-12 dating back to mid 2016 with Cards.
Over now 5-2 last seven in this series.
Saints only 4-9 vs. number last 11 at Superdome.

Tech Edge: “Over” and Bucs, based on “totals” and team trends.

DALLAS at L.A. RAMS (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

Rams open new SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles.
Cowboys won big 44-21 last December vs. LA at Arlington.
Dallas “over” 22-12 since 2018, both meetings vs. Rams “over” past two years.
Rams were only 5-9 vs. spread their last 14 as host at Coliseum.
McVay has covered in openers the past three seasons.

Tech Edge: Slight to “over” and Rams, based on “totals” and team trends

Monday, September 14

PITTSBURGH at NY GIANTS (ESPN, 7:15 p.m. ET)

Head coach Joe Judge debut for New York.
Steelers “under” 12-4 last season (almost all of it minus Big Ben), now “under” 17-6 last 23 since late 2018.
Steel also just 1-6-1 last eight as visiting chalk since 2018.
Giants “over” 16-8 since mid 2018 but just 2-8 vs. points last 10 at MetLife.

Tech Edge: Slight to Giants, based on team trends.

TENNESSEE at DENVER (ESPN, 10:10 p.m. ET)

Broncos blanked Titans 16-0 in Week 6 last season, and quietly covered 8 of last 12 for Fangio in 2019.
Denver on 17-7 “under” run since mid 2018 (9-7 “under’ in 2019).
Titans covered 5 of their last 6 on road down the stretch last season.

Tech Edge: Slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends

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