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Over-Under NFL Week 3 Total Predictions, Odds



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Handicapping Week 3 Totals

We have 15 totals left on the Week 3 NFL slate and we'll continue to see zero fans, or limited capacity, indefinitely. While we did lack fans, we didn't lack major injuries in Week 2, and that's something we'll delve into more as we go along for the Week 3 report. 

Some quick total notes before we break down the action. 

-- Through two weeks and 32 games, NFL teams have scored a combined 1,611 points this season for an average of 50.3 points per game. That effort broke the previous record of 1,556 points, which took place in 2012. When you look at the overall total results (see below), you'll see that the 'over' holds a 20-12 (63%) record.

-- The Dallas-Seattle matchup opened with the highest total on the board at 55, and has inched up to 55.5 since early in the week. The Detroit-Arizona game also opened above the 50 line, 51 to be exact, and has shot all the way up to 55 as bettors continue to thump the over. And Monday's titanic Kansas City-Baltimore battle opened at 52, and is also up to 54, and might go a lot higher based on the early betting trends.

-- Books aren't expecting many defensive battles this week, with the San Francisco-N.Y. Giants battle the lowest on the board at 42.5. Again, that's likely a product of the massive casualties on both sides of the ball. The 49ers lost QB Jimmy Garoppolo to a high-ankle sprain, which is likely to put QB Nick Mullens under center to start Week 3. The team also expressed concerns about the artificial surface at MetLife Stadium, which led to a rash of injuries last week against the New York Jets. As such, TE George Kittle (knee) could be held out, even if he is deemed ready to play, just as a precaution against potentially aggravating his injury. With RBs Raheem Mostert (knee) not practicing, and RB Tevin Coleman (knee) hitting the Reserved/Injured list, the 49ers figure to be a shell of themselves. DE Dee Ford and LB Dre Greenlaw are also nicked up on the other side of the ball. Oh, and remember the Giants lost RB Saquon Barkley (knee) for the season, so the total is low for a reason.

-- Despite the rash of injuries last week, the 49ers still treaded on and posted an 'over' total against the New York Jets. And while we have three teams going West to East for Week 3 games, the 49ers aren't one of them. They stayed at the White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia this week rather than traveling cross-country and then back, so they aren't in as bad of shape as, say, the Las Vegas Raiders, who played Monday, then travel to Foxboro for an early Sunday kick.

-- Keep an eye on teams traveling from coast to coast this week as we have five matchups that feature clubs traveling from Eastern Time Zone to Pacific Time Zone and vice versa. 

  1. Las Vegas at New England
  2. L.A. Rams at Buffalo
  3. San Francisco at N.Y. Giants
  4. Carolina at L.A. Chargers
  5. Detroit at Arizona

-- Make a note that the 'over' went 3-1 in games where the West Coast club traveled to the East Coast with the lone 'under' winner taking place in the Washington-Arizona tilt (just barely).

Over-Under Line Moves

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 3 based as of Friday afternoon.

Down

  • N.Y. Jets at Indianapolis: 45 to 44
  • San Francisco at N.Y. Giants: 42.5 to 41.5
  • Carolina at L.A. Chargers: 44.5 to 43.5
  • Tampa Bay at Denver: 44.5 to 43.5

Up

  • Dallas at Seattle 55 to 57
  • Detroit at Arizona: 53 to 55.5
  • Green Bay at New Orleans (SNF): 51.5 to 53
  • Kansas City at Baltimore (MNF): 52 to 54.5
  • L.A. Rams at Buffalo: 44.5 to 47
  • Tennessee at Minnesota: 45.5 to 49.5

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 3 per the betting trend percentages as of Friday.

Over-Under Betting Trends

  • Cincinatti at Philadelphia: Over 90%
  • Detroit at Arizona: Over 88%
  • Dallas at Seattle: Over 81%
  • L.A. Rams at Buffalo: Over 79%
  • Kansas City at Baltimore (MNF): Over 79%
  • N.Y. Jets at Indianapolis: Under 85%
  • Chicago at Alanta: Under 71%
  • Tampa Bay at Denver: Under 70%
  • San Francisco at N.Y. Giants: Under 67%
  • Washington at Cleveland: Under 67%

Division Over-Under Notes

The 'over' went 5-1 in the NFL Divisional battles in the Week 2, according to our betting results (see below), and is 11-4 overall this season. Will the trend continue? Well, it might, but in an odd twist to the NFL schedule, we have ZERO divisional matchups on tap for Week 3. So we'll have to wait until at least Week 4 before we see if teams familiar with each other continue to light up the scoreboard.

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Don't Believe All Trends

The New York Jets have hit the over in each of their two games, but it has nothing to do with their offensive production. They are averaging just 15.0 PPG, and over bettors strictly playing the trends are going to be sorry when they match up against a team which is not terribly impressive on offense. New York's D has yielded 29.0 PPG in two games against the Bills and 49ers. It might not happen this week, as Indianapolis can score, but Oct. 1 against Denver on a short week is the game to watch.

Non-Conference Angles

Week 2 featured three AFC-NFC matchups and the totals went 3-1, with the Vikings-Colts battle at Lucas Oil Stadium the only exception. The teams combined for just three points in the first quarter, and 21 total points after three quarters. An 18-point flurry wasn't enough, as 'under' bettors easily cruised to a victory there.

For Week 3, the schedule is chock full of cross-conference matchups, with a total of six games.

L.A. Rams at Buffalo: After a low-scoring opener against the Cowboys, winning 20-17, the Rams found their offense in Philadelphia with a 37-point outburst. That's nice, but watch their defense. They have allowed just 18.0 PPG so far. Speaking of good defenses, the Bills are supposed to have one, but they allowed the Dolphins to hang 28 points on them. The Bills led the NFL with a 12-4 'under' record in 2019, but the 'over' is 2-0 for Buffalo so far.

Tennessee at Minnesota: The Titans found their sea legs after an ugly 16-14 win in the opener, dropping 33 points on the Jaguars in Week 2. They also allowed 30 points in the shootout. The Vikings are still searching for the first victory of the season. The over has connected in five of the past six when the Vikes are coming off back-to-back straight-up losses, and 7-2 in the third game when facing an unbeaten foe.

Washington at Cleveland: The Washington Football Team seems to enjoy facing the AFC North, as the over has hit in five of the past six in the cross-division games. The Browns are favored to win and move to 2-1, which is interesting. They haven't had a winning record at any point of a season since Dec. 2014. The over is 6-0-1 in their past seven as a home favorite of three or more points.

Cincinnati at Philadelphia: Bengals rookie QB Joe Burrow looks for real, and they dropped 30 on the Browns in a Thursday night loss last week. The over is 4-1 in the previous five when the Bengals dropped at least 30 points in their previous outing. The over seems like a good bet, as the Eagles defense cannot stop anyone. They have yielded 33.0 PPG in their two losses, with the over hitting in each outing.

Carolina at L.A. Chargers: The Panthers are another team struggling on defense, coughing up 32.5 PPG. It's no surprise the the over has connected in each of those contests. A big chunk of Carolina's offense will be in a walking boot this week, as RB Christian McCaffrey has a high-ankle sprain expected to keep him on the shelf 4-6 weeks. That's bad news with a good D on tap. The Bolts are a rarity, as defense has been a big part of their game. They have averaged just 18.0 PPG on offense, and allowed 18.0 PPG on defense for a pair of under results.

Tampa Bay at Denver: The Broncos will be starting QB Jeff Driskel under center this week, as QB Drew Lock has a several-week injury which will keep him on the shelf. They weren't humming along with Lock anyway, posting 17.5 PPG with one under and one over. The Bucs have averaged 27.0 PPG with QB Tom Brady, and he still hasn't looked 100 percent comfortable with his new team. The over is 2-0, and you have to feel TB is just scratching the surface offensively, while allowing 25.5 PPG on defense. They're a good bet for continued overs.

Primetime Points

-- The 'over' was a perfect 3-0 in the primetime games last week, including an entertaining shootout in Vegas between the Raiders and Saints.

-- The run did end on Thursday as Miami defeated Jacksonville 31-13 as the 'under' (49) cashed but the game was on a decent pace at halftime with the Dolphins lead 21-7. 

-- Including that result, the 'over-under' sits at 4-4 in primetime games this season. 

Sunday Night Football Notes

The Sunday night battle between the Patriots and Saints came right down to the wire. When the dust cleared, Seattle had a 35-30 victory, posting their second over result of the season. It also evened up the SNF scheduled at 1-1 on totals to date.

Packers-Saints Preview

For Week 3, we get the high-flying Packers and Saints playing in the Big Easy. The Packers are averaging 42.5 PPG, hitting the over in each outing. The Saints aren't nearly as prolific, but they're averaging a solid 29,0 PPG while also hitting the over twice.

These teams meet in 2017 from Lambeau Field and New Orleans captured a 26-17 road win and the 'under' (45.5) slid in but in the previous encounter at the Superdome in 2014, the Saints blasted the Packers 44-23 and the 'over' (55) was never in doubt.

Monday Night Football Notes

The Chiefs and Ravens square off in a highly-anticipated early-season MNF game. The over has connected in five of the past seven Monday appearances for the defending champs, while the over is 3-1 in Baltimore's past four MNF battles.

The pair have squared off twice in the last three seasons and the 'over' connected in both games. 

  • Sept. 22, 2019 - Kansas City 33 vs. Baltimore 28 -- Over 52.5
  • Dec. 9, 2018 - Kansas City 27 vs. Baltimore 24 -- Over 48.5

Fearless Predictions

A higher scoring game between the Rams and Eagles ruined my three-team teaser. It happens. And I hit two ends of my best bets, but the 49ers and Jets managed to inch over the line as a loser. So for the week I lost a sawbuck (-$10). It's all good. Through two weeks I still sit in the black at ($190). We'll keep it rolling in Week 3 with four more wagers.

  • Best Over: Cincinnati-Philadelphia 45.5
  • Best Under: Carolina-L.A. Chargers 45.5
  • Best First-Half Total: Dallas-Seattle 27.5

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7, +135)

  • Over 41 Chicago-Atlanta
  • Under 52.5 Carolina-L.A. Chargers
  • Under 51.5 Tampa Bay-Denver

Week 2 & Overall Betting Results

Depending when and where you placed your bets, the ‘over’ went 11-5 in Week 2, and the over has a 20-12 advantage to date. 

Week 2 Total Results
Year Over/Under
Divisional matchups 5-1
NFC vs. NFC 2-2
AFC vs. AFC 2-1
AFC vs. NFC 2-1

  
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