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Vegas Money Moves - Week 3



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Books adjust and accept to "Over Bias"

After most sportsbooks had a losing Week 2 of the NFL, they got some relief with the Dolphins 28-13 win at Jacksonville (-3) that paid +135 on the money-line while also staying under the total of 48 which now makes the 'over' 20-13 this season.

But William Hill’s head bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich said Thursday night wasn’t all rosy.

“Yeah, we won to the NFL game, but the NBA game was brutal with lots of bets pushing and almost all the parlays having the over,” Bogdanovich said of the Lakers Game 4, 114-19, win against the Nuggets (+6) in the Western Conference Finals. “It seems like every game has gone over.”

Almost every conference finals game has gone over in this round of the NBA Playoffs.

In the Eastern Conference Finals between Boston and Miami, three of the first four games have gone and over the West has produced a 3-1 result to the high side as well.

That includes Thursday's Game 4 win over result between the Lakers and Nuggets and Bogdanovich said they lost $150,000 just to that total decision alone.  

Public confident for Week 3

William Hill sportsbooks across the country have six sides that the public has jumped all over and although the bettors have done well with their choices the last two weeks, it’s always a good side note to keep on what the public likes the most because, in the long run, those popular sides usually don’t cover. 

Remember, the public betting patterns are how all those big beautiful sportsbooks are built and the consensus trends can be followed in the VI matchups index.  

One-Sided Favorite Leans - Week 3

  • Titans
  • Falcons
  • Colts
  • Chargers
  • Cardinals
  • Buccaneers 

“We’re going to need Minnesota (+3 vs. Titans) big,” said Bogdanovich.

“They’re (bettors) on the Titans with everything this week: straight bets, parlays, money-line parlays, and teasers. It’s like that with a couple of games this week like the Falcons (-3 vs Bears), Colts (-12 vs. Jets), Chargers (-6.5 vs. Panthers), Cardinals (-5.5 vs. Lions), and Buccaneers (-5.5 at Denver).”

BetMGM’s Jason Scott said the Falcons are their biggest risk of the week for them through Friday. It’s an odd situation with an 0-2 team being favored over a 2-0 team, but the public doesn’t care that the Falcons have allowed the second-most yards-per-game (476) because they like what quartebrack Matt Ryan and his receivers did to quality teams in losses to the Seahawks and Cowboys.

Bears QB Mitch Trubisky has been resourceful in the Bears 2-0 start with short wins against the Lions and Giants, but bettors think they know him a little better than the oddsmakers do. For whatever it’s worth, the Bears have covered the last three meetings with the Falcons.     

“The four biggest risks overall for us are the Bucs, Falcons, Titans, and Cardinals," Bogdanovich said.

South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews says their top public plays (parlays) are the Steelers(-4 vs Texans), Cardinals, and Titans while their top sharp plays have been the Bengals (+4.5 at Philadelphia), Broncos, and Titans.

Station Casinos 17 sportsbooks across Nevada have seen their public jump on the Cardinals, Buccaneers, and Packers the most, director Jason McCormick said, while the top sharp or wise guy plays have been the Bengals, Broncos, and Giants (+3.5 vs 49ers).

Sharp Leans - Week 3

  • Bengals
  • Broncos
  • N.Y. Giants 

The 49ers will be playing their second straight East Coast game at a 10:00 a.m. PT start time and they'll also be playing without QB Jimmy Garoppolo, RB Raheem Mostert and stud defensive players Nick Nosa, and Solomon Thomas. 

Replacing "Jimmy G" under center will be former Southern Miss QB Nick Mullens, who started eight games for the 49ers in 2018 and he went 3-5 in those starts which incldues a 0-3 record outside of Santa Clara. 

The Giants will be without running back Saquon Barkley, which is why they signed former Atlanta Falcons standout running back Devonte Freeman earlier in the week.

Pros vs. Joes 

The Pros vs. Joe's divide is happening with the Lions and Broncos, who the Pros like while the Joe’s are on the other side.

QB Drew Lock is 'out' for Denver and so is wide receiver Courtland Sutton and RB Phillip Lindsay who join defensive stars A.J. Bouye and Von Miller on the sidelines. QB Jeff Driskel will run the show for the 0-2 Broncos, but make a note that the team has covered the spread in both setbacks that were by a combined seven points (14-16, 21-26) to the undefeated Titans and Steelers.

Driskel got the late cover last week at Pittsburgh by making some big throws. No matter how bad the Broncos look in any season, wise guys have been running to the bet windows for as long as I can remember when Denver getting points at home. There will again be a limited number of fans (5,700) in the stands, but the altitude doesn’t know what COVID-19 is making it part of one of the biggest home-field edges in football.

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The Lions 0-2 start features a fourth-quarter meltdown against the Bears in a 27-23 opening season loss at home before getting doubled-up 41-21 against Green Bay in Week 2.

The Lions and Cardinals tied, 27-27, in Week 1 last season as the Cardinals were 2.5-point home dogs. After a 17-3 halftime lead in Arizona QB Kyler Murray’s debut, the first-year gunslinger showed flashes of greatness in the second half outscoring the Lions 21-7. The Lions had won and covered against the Cardinals each of the previous two seasons.

The Cardinals and Buccaneers both lead the way at William Hill with the biggest disparity in tickets written at 86% each as of Friday evening.

Circa Sports has most of their action coming from sharp bettors through the phones and director Matt Metcalf said their biggest risks of Week 3 so far through Friday are the Broncos and 49ers.

Most of my memories of Bucs QB Tom Brady at Denver playing for the Patriots ended up being big Broncos wins as underdogs.

Surprisingly, the most attractive matchups of the week haven’t tipped the scales one way or another.

“We’re dead even to the best matchups this week with the Cowboys at Seahawks (-5), Packers at Saints (-3), and Monday night’s Chiefs at Ravens (-3.5) game, Bogdanovich said.

Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director that has been covering the sports betting industry for the last 16 years.

  
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