Betting Recap – Week 5

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

18 minute read

Editor's Note: Don't miss out on Winning Football Picks from Joe Williams for the 2020 NFL regular season. Click to win!

Overall Notes

The largest underdogs to win straight up

• Raiders (+10.5, ML +575) at Chiefs, 40-32
• Dolphins (+8, ML +300) at 49ers, 43-17
• Bears (+3.5, ML +170) vs. Buccaneers, 20-19
• Titans (+3, ML +145) vs. Bills, 42-16
• Panthers (+2.5, ML +110) at Falcons, 23-16

The largest favorites to cover

• Ravens (-12.5) vs. Bengals, 27-3
• Steelers (-7.5) vs. Eagles, 38-29
• Cardinals (-7) at Jets, 30-10
• Rams (-7) at Washington, 30-10
• Texans (-6.5) vs. Jaguars, 30-14

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Minnesota Vikings-Seattle Seahawks game on Sunday Night Football was a strange game. For bettors, it was a roller coaster ride full of emotions, good or bad depending on which side of the line or total you were on.

The Vikings (+7) opened up a 13-0 lead at halftime, and moneyline bettors (+263) and 'under' (54) were both feeling really good about themselves. Seattle head coach Pete Carroll said something super inspiring at halftime, because the Seahawks came on out the break on fire. They scored 21 unanswered points in a span of 113 seconds, opening up a 21-13 lead at the midway point of the third quarter. Suddenly, under bettors weren't feeling very good, Minnesota moneyline bettors and side bettors were feeling awful, and the Seahawks were covering for the first time all evening.

The good feeling for Seattle side bettors was short-lived, though. While the struggles of Vikings QB Kirk Cousins in primetime games is well documented, he had a pretty good evening, throwing for 249 yards and two touchdowns. He needed to pick up his play, too, as oft-injured star RB Dalvin Cook went down with a groin injury in the third quarter and was unable to return. That was one of the biggest injuries in all of Week 5, but not THE biggest (see below). Anyway, it's uncertain how long Cook will be sidelined.

The Vikings answered back with 13 unanswered points of their own, taking a 26-21 lead. Then, late in the fourth quarter, head coach Mike Zimmer made a quizzical move. Rather than kicking a field goal, inside the red zone on a 4th and 1, he elected to go for it. Mind you, Cook, their backfield hammer was sidelined. And to be fair, RB Alexander Mattison filled in admirably, even hitting triple digits in a reserve role. But the Vikings were stuffed trying to run it, rather than make it an eight-point game.

The Seahawks have MVP candidate QB Russell Wilson under center, and he calmly and coolly led the team down the field. With 15 seconds remaining, Wilson hit WR DK Metcalf in the right corner of the end zone for a touchdown, as Seattle took a 27-26 lead. For Vikings moneyline bettors, their heart was broken, and it was like losing a second time, after they blew a big lead earlier. For over bettors, they sat on the edge of their seats during the two-point conversion. It didn't happen, though, and wasn't even close. The Vikings never really threatened when they got the ball back with 15 seconds, and under bettors all cashed, regardless if they bet the number early in the week in the high 50's, or at the close of 54. All under tickets were winners.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board among the Sunday slate was the Philadelphia Eagles-Pittsburgh Steelers (44) game. This Keystone State battle ended up being a wild affair featuring plenty of scoring. Steelers rookie WR Chase Claypool became just the third rookie in NFL history to record four touchdowns in a single game, scoring all but one of the home team's touchdowns. This game saw each team score at least seven points in every quarter, totaling 67 in all. With the exception of the New York Giants-Dallas Cowboys (52) game, the Eagles-Steelers was the highest-scoring game on Sunday.

The highest total on Sunday's board was the Jacksonville Jaguars-Houston Texans (54.5) game. The Texans made a change at the top spot, firing Bill O'Brien after last week's disappointing loss to the Vikings. The Texans looked like a brand new team under interim head coach Romeo Crennel, firing off a 30-14 victory as the 'under' connected. The two teams played a scoreless first quarter, one of just two scoreless quarters either on Thursday or Sunday in NFL Week 5. Believe it or not, the Las Vegas Raiders-Kansas City Chiefs game (54.5) featured the other one. The Raiders fired off a 40-32 win, so it was rather surprising that one of the quarters saw zero total points. Of course, the game-total over and first-half over was helped out by 38 total points in a wild second quarter.

The three scheduled primetime games in Week 5 saw the 'under' go 2-1. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Chicago Bears (44) game saw just 39 total points thanks to 12 total points in the final 30 minutes. At least first-half total (22.5) bettors hit the over with 27 points. We already covered the SNF game, which also went under. The Los Angeles Chargers-New Orleans Saints (50) ended up going to overtime, tied 27-27, so the 'over' was in the bag already in regulation. The Buffalo Bills-Tennessee Titans (53) game, which was rescheduled for Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET due to COVID-19, also hit the 'over'.

So far this season the over is 8-9 (47.1%) across 17 primetime games. In 2019, the 'over' was just 17-31-1 (35.4%) during primetime games.

Injury Report

Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys quarterback was having an MVP caliber season heading into Week 5. He became the first player in NFL history to throw for 450 or more yards in three consecutive games last week. In Sunday's game, he was making headlines for another reason. He suffered a major right ankle injury, and there were reports the bone poked through the skin. He was taken immediately to a hospital and has already underwent successful surgery to repair a dislocation and fracture. It sounds like he'll miss a significant amount of time, and QB Andy Dalton will not take over as the signal caller. The former Bengals QB led the team to a comeback win against the New York Giants, 34-31, but it will be interesting to see if there is a stark drop-off on offense. The Cowboys are +3500 in the future odds to win the Super Bowl, as of Monday morning.

Looking Ahead to Week 6

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Bears and Panthers opened with the lowest total on the Week 6 board at 44 points. Chicago hits the road for the second time this season where they have seen the 'over' connect in both outings, going 2-0 SU/ATS while averaging 28.5 points per game. They have allowed 24.5 PPG in those two outings. The Panthers head into this one on a three-game heater, including a 31-21 win and cover as three-point 'dogs in their most recent home game. The 'under' has hit in their past three outings, going 3-0 SU/ATS. They're averaging 25.0 PPG on offense during their three-game win streak, but allowing just 17.7 PPG.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Browns are on their first four-game winning streak since 2009, and they're 4-1 for the first time since the 1994, and they are 3-0 at home to start a season for the first time since 2004. And they scored 32 points in their nine-point win over the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, giving them 30 or more points in four straight games for the first time since 1968. All of that scoring will be necessary if they want to cool of the equally hot Steelers, who have fired out to a 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS start, including 'over' results in each of the past three. The Browns are on a 4-0 'over' run.

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The 49ers were drummed at home by a 43-17 score against the Miami Dolphins of all teams, slipping as eight-point favorites for the second consecutive week. QB Jimmy Garoppolo returned from injury, but was lifted at halftime with the team facing a 30-7 deficit. QB C.J. Beathard finished up, and at least led the team to 10 points. It appears there might be a quarterback controversy brewing in Frisco, or at least a situation worth watching very, very closely. The Rams improved to 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS with a 30-10 road win over Washington, and they might be a perfect 5-0 if not for a phantom DPI against the Buffalo Bills in Week 3. The Rams hit the under for the first time in three road games in Week 5. L.A. is allowing just 9.5 PPG over the past two games, and they have yielded 19 or fewer points in four of their five outings.

Arizona Cowboys at Dallas Cowboys (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Cowboys will take on the 'new-look' Cowboys, as Dalton makes his first start on Monday night. At least he gets one more day to get prepared for his first starting assignment. Dallas enters this game 2-3 SU/0-5 ATS overall, and they have hit the 'over' in four straight outings. Dallas has registered 31 or more points in four straight while giving up 34 or more during the same span. It will be interesting to see if Dalton can keep up the good production on offense. He has GIANT shoes to fill. The Cardinals got well on the road against the hapless Jets, 30-10, and the Cardinals remained the only team in the NFL to hit the 'under' in all five of its first five games.

Daily Newsletter - Sign Up Today!

Where to place a bet this NFL Season?

• Use our exclusive BetMGM Bonus Code VIBONUS1500 to unlock BetMGM’s welcome offer for new sportsbook users!
• Compare the latest NFL Odds from the best sportsbooks before placing a bet on this week's games.
• Check out the North Carolina Sportsbooks just before they launch legal online sports betting.

VegasInsider Staff

More from VegasInsider Staff