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Hot & Not Report - Week 6



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Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS

NFL Week 6 Betting Angles

It was interesting to see mostly more of the same regarding last week's scenarios, as teams before their SNF or MNF showcase went 2-2 ATS (3-1 SU).

But more importantly, those readers that had the balls to stick with the trend of fading teams pre-TNF in the outright market were rewarded handsomely if they stuck with fading the Kansas City Chiefs.

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Kansas City's game may have already been moved from Thursday Night Football, but they technically still classified as being in that scheduling spot where teams have not performed well this year.

That Raiders win was by far the best result, and it's something that is more likely to continue in Week 6 with the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles slated to open Week 7 with a TNF game.

Both of those NFC East teams are at home this week, as it's their division of atrocity that gets the light shone on it a bit today.

Who's Hot

NFC West teams are a combined 8-2 ATS on the road; Only one division game played so 7-2 ATS on the road vs rest of the league

Quite the run for these NFC West teams away from home, and that's with the defending NFC Champions (San Francisco) sitting with a losing record SU overall right now. But the 49ers are 2-0 ATS away from home this year, as are the Seahawks.

Los Angeles and Arizona both sit at 2-1 ATS on the road, but that Rams loss came up in Buffalo in a contest that could have easily worked out in LA's favor.

Who do you follow?

  • Cardinals
  • Rams
  • 49ers
  • Seahawks

Coming into the year you had to wonder if road teams would achieve even marginally more success with the lack of opposing crowds to deal with, and so far it has been this NFC West division to make the most of the opportunity.

But given that this division has represented the last two NFC Champions and has had a QB on the 3rd team that has been in the MVP conversation in both of those years, continuity was always going to be valuable this year and it's shown in this division.

Week 6 has the Rams in San Francisco on SNF to deal with a reeling 49ers team that's in desperate need of a win, while Arizona's out in Dallas for MNF the following evening. Both are sitting as small road favorites right now which brings a whole other can of worms to the party with popular road chalk in prime time, but it's hard to stand in the way of any of these teams when they are away from home.

The recent successes of Seattle, Los Angeles, and San Francisco have taught those organizations that winning on the road is a must in this league, and this is a trend I would expect to continue to perform rather well long term this season.

Who's Not

NFC East teams are a combined 2-8 ATS at home this year; 2-6 ATS outside of division games

As if some bettors needed another reason to want to fade the Dallas Cowboys yet again, but here we've got Dallas hosting Week 6's MNF game with the NFC West Arizona Cardinals coming into town.

On top of the awful defense the Cowboys have, and the devastating injury situation with quarterback Dak Prescott, this run of futility for NFC East teams at home only adds more fuel to the fire of a market that's likely going to be excited about fading this Dallas Cowboys team already.

How interesting that line gets throughout the week is something to keep an eye on.

Who do you fade?

  • Cowboys
  • Giants
  • Eagles
  • Football Team

But the Cowboys aren't the only team from this division at home in Week 6, as the Eagels host Baltimore, and the Giants are hosting Washington.

In fact, it's the combination of Dallas/NYG/Philadelphia that accounts for all eight of those ATS losses at home for this division (0-8 ATS combined), and it's Dallas and Philly – the two teams expected to ultimately fight for this division – who are the ones catching points this week.

Maybe the market has finally caught up to these teams, although who knows where the masses sit on the Cowboys now that Prescott is out.

Dallas is always going to be a public team, but as one that's done nothing but burn money in all roles this year, you've got to imagine a good chunk of that support waivers with those results and a backup QB in Andy Dalton now at the helm.

The Eagles are in tough against Baltimore, and the Washington/Giants game is one New York should be able to find a way to get into the win column for the first time this year.

These poor ATS numbers are more then likely to get better for all these NFC East teams at home, but it would still need to be a good spot to back them as well. All four of these teams are still below-average football teams overall, and you don't really want to be going to war with them week after week.


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