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Handicapping Week 7 Totals
-- The good news for Week 7 is that, knock on wood, we haven't had any huge number of positive COVID-19 tests, and all games appear to be on as scheduled, with no games being canceled or moved.
-- The Tennessee Titans had some issues with positive tests, and their games were moved around quite a bit. The Titans were expected to host the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 4, but instead that was made a bye for each side. The Steelers and Baltimore Ravens game, originally slated for this weekend, was moved to the previously scheduled bye in Week 8 for both of those teams. Now, we get a Steelers-Titans showdown in Week 7 which is a battle of the last two unbeatens in the AFC.
-- The Steelers rolled up 38 more points last week in a win over the Cleveland Browns, but they allowed just seven points for an 'under' result, snapping a 3-0 'over' run for the Yinzers. Pittsburgh has scored 26, 26, 28, 38 and 38 this season, as their offense continues to get better and better as the weeks go on.
-- The Titans also know a little bit about offense. They're on a 4-0 'over' run since an 'under' result back in Week 1 in their opener against the Denver Broncos. Since that season-low 16 points on MNF, they have registered 33, 31, 42 and 42, including a thrilling six-point overtime win over the Houston Texans at Nissan Stadium last weekend.
-- The Buffalo Bills are the only team in the AFC East to hit the 'over' more than the 'under', going 4-1-1 through six outings.
-- The Las Vegas Raiders have yet to see an 'under' cash this season, going 4-0-1 through the five five contests.
-- The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 'over' in four of their six games so far this season, although they hit the 'under' on Monday against the Arizona Cardinals to slap the brakes on a 4-0 'over' run.
Over-Under Line Moves
We've had a decent amount of movement for several totals in Week 7, and you can expect more movement heading up to game day.
The oddsmakers did a good job setting the initial totals, but injuries, personnel changes, etc. have caused bettors to react early.
Kansas City at Denver: 49.5 to 46
Buffalo at N.Y. Jets: 48 to 45
Dallas at Washington: 49 to 46
Chicago at L.A. Rams (MNF): 47 to 45
San Francisco at New England: 45.5 to 43.5
Tampa Bay at Las Vegas (SNF): 53.5 to 51.5
Green Bay at Houston: 56 to 57
Jacksonville at L.A. Chargers: 48 to 49
Seattle at Arizona: 55 to 56
Over-Under Betting Trends
Listed below are the largest leans for Week 7 as of Thursday.
Carolina at New Orleans: Over 93%
Dallas at Washington: Over 86%
Jacksonville at L.A. Chargers: Over 75%
Kansas City at Denver: Under 92%
Cleveland at Cincinnati: Under 86%
San Francisco at New England: Under 86%
Pittsburgh at Tennessee: Under 82%
Division Over-Under Notes
The 'under' went 4-1 in the NFL Divisional battles in Week 6, and is 15-9 (62.5%) overall this season. We have another six divisional matchups on tap for Sunday.
Carolina at New Orleans: The New Orleans Saints are the only team to hit the 'over' in each of their games without any 'under' results or pushes, going 5-0. They're back in action after a rest in Week 6, and the Saints have also hit the 'over' in 10 of their past 14 after a bye, while going 4-1 in their previous five divisional matchups. That will be put to the test this week, as the Carolina Panthers slide into the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on a 4-0 'under' run. The Panthers have allowed just 19.0 PPG across the past four, and they have managed just 22.8 PPG during the run. The trends in this series all point to a high-scoring affair under the Dome, cashing in seven straight meetings in New Orleans, and six of the past seven overall meetings.
Cleveland at Cincinnati: The Browns and Bengals met back in Week 2 on Thursday Night Football, and the Browns came away with a 35-30 win as the 'over' easily connected. Cleveland saw the 'under' cash last week, snapping a 4-0 'over' run. The Browns offense has been electric at home, but awful on the road, particularly in road games. Cleveland is averaging just 6.5 PPG in two divisional road games, hitting the 'under' in each. The Bengals have alternated 'under' and 'over' results in each game so far this season. The 'under' has hit in odd-numbered weeks, and the 'over' has cashed in even-numbered weeks, including the first meeting. Cincinnati is playing just its third home game, and this will be the second time they're a home 'dog. The 'under' hit in the only previous instance.
Buffalo at N.Y. Jets: The Jets were blanked last week in Miami, falling 24-0, and the 'under' has cashed in two straight, and three of the past four. The Jets offense has been brutal, especially if you take out their Week 4 result against Denver when they lost 37-28. The Jets are averaging a league-low 12.5 PPG through six games, and just 9.4 PPG in the other five games if you take out the loss to the Broncos. Like Cleveland-Cincinnati, this is a rematch from an earlier meeting. The Bills won 27-17 at home against the Jets in Week 1, an 'over' result. Buffalo had been 4-0-1 on the 'over' until a 26-17 loss against Kansas City gave them their first 'under' of the season. The Bills actually led the NFL with 12 'under' results in 2019, but their vaunted defense just hasn't shown up at any point this season.
Dallas at Washington: The team to host Monday Night Football in the previous week has seen the 'over' go 3-1 in their next game. The Broncos, Raiders and Ravens each hit the 'over' in their next Sunday game after hosting MNF, while the Giants are the only team to hit an 'under' the following week. The trend didn't apply in Week 5 or 6, as the Packers and Saints had byes after hosting on Monday in the previous week. And don't put a lot of stock into the fact the 'over' is 8-1 in thye previous nine meetings in this series. Washington is averaging just 18.0 PPG, ranking 30th in the the NFL, and they're consistent. They have scored 15, 20, 17, 10 and 19 in the previous five. Will the Washington Football Team finally break out against the awful defense of the Cowboys? Bettors seem to be dubious, as the line dropped from an open of 49 to 46.
Seattle at Arizona: This game features the highest total on the board among the divisional games. The Seahawks rank No. 1 in the NFL with 33.8 PPG, and they're 18th in the league defensively, yielding 27.0. Surprisingly, the 'over' is just 3-2, and the 'under' is on a 2-0 run after averaging just 29.0 PPG in the past two, while yielding 24.5 PPG. Their defense has been slightly better, although the Cardinals certainly look to test that. The Cardinals scored a season-high 38 points on Monday night in Dallas, but they allowed just 10 points for the second straight week, as their defense has stepped up. Of course, they faced a Dak-less Cowboys team in Week 6, and the lowly Jets in Week 5, so the jury is still out on whether their defense is much improved, or they have just faced ultra-favorable matchups. If they shut down MVP candidate Russell Wilson and the Seahawks, then it's time to believe. Still, Arizona is the only team in the NFL to hit the 'under' 6-for-6 so far this season.
Kansas City at Denver: The Chiefs have been just a little off lately. They rebounded from a 40-32 home loss against the Raiders in Week 5, posting a 26-17 win in a steady light rain against the Buffalo Bills. Perhaps the weather helped to keep their offense down, or maybe it was the fact their game was moved from Thursday to Monday. But the 'under' is 4-1 in the past five, and they just haven't looked to be hitting on all cylinders. The Chiefs have posted rather mortal number of 23, 34, 26, 32 and 26 in the past five weeks, while the defense is allowed 20, 20, 10, 32 and 17. Denver surprised New England on the road in an 18-12 score, as their defense played its best game of the season. It was especially impressive considering they allowed 28 points to the lowly Jets in a Thursday game the previous week. So we're still trying to figure out the Denver defense. They have alternated 'under' and 'over' results in each of their five games, and if you believe in that trend, an 'over' is right around the corner in Week 7.
Don't Believe All Trends
The Cowboys had a 4-0 'over' run going into last Monday's game against the Cardinals. Of course, QB Dak Prescott (ankle) had started each of those games before leaving with a season-ending injury in Week 5 against the Giants. In the first start by QB Andy Dalton, the Cowboys offense was brutal. He was unable to do anything escept for a garbage-time touchdown, and the 'under' easily cashed in a 38-10 loss against the Cardinals. Don't believe the majority of 'over' results for the Cowboys.
Week 6 featured just two AFC-NFC matchups and the totals split 1-1.The Detroit Lions and Jacksonville Jaguars saw a total of 50 points, but fell just short of the 'over' (53). Points weren't a problem in the Baltimore Ravens-Philadelphia Eagles (46.5) matchup, as the game featured 58 total points, including a fourth-quarter flurry which saw 28 total points, including 22 by the home team alone. We have three more AFC vs. NFC battles on tap for Week 7.
Green Bay at Houston: The Packers got a big wake-up call last week in Tampa, falling 38-10 to the Buccaneers as the 'under' hit. The 10 points were easily a season low, and the 'under' is now 2-0 in their past two after a 3-0 'over' run to open the season. Green Bay started with 43, 42 and 37 points, but they had 30 in a Monday game before the bye against a defensively-challenged Falcons side, and they managed just the 10 last week. Perhaps injuries at the skill positions are catching up to the Packers? We'll find out a lot in Houston. The Texans scored a season-high 36 points in six-point overtime loss at Tennessee in Week 6. Houston's offense started off rather sluggish, managing 20, 16, 21 and 23, but the past two games have seen them go for 30 and 36. This is the Texans offense we expected. The 'over' is 3-1 in their past four games, as their defense is still struggling. They're allowing 30.3 PPG, 26th in the NFL.
San Francisco at New England: Speaking of injuries, the 49ers have a ton of them, and things aren't getting much better. They lost RB Raheem Mostert to an ankle injury, and QB Jimmy Garoppolo still looks awfully gimpy as he returns from an ankle. They won their game 24-16 on SNF against the Los Angeles Rams as the 'under' hit, but he was favoring his ankle. The offense might struggle to put up points on the road against a damaged, but still dangerous Patriots side. New England fell 18-12 at home against Denver, and the offense has managed just 22 total points in the past two games while allowing 22.0 PPG. The 'under' is 3-2 overall for the Patriots, and they're scoring 21.8 PPG to rank 25th in the league, while ranking 12th in defense with 22.0 PPG allowed.
Tampa Bay at Las Vegas: (see below)
-- The 'under' was a perfect 3-0 in the primetime games, as we'll include the Kansas City Chiefs-Buffalo Bills game, which was rescheduled from Thursday night to Monday evening.
-- The 'over-under' sits at 8-12 (40%) in primetime games this season.
Sunday Night Football Notes
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Las Vegas Raiders go off from Allegiant Stadium, a.k.a. 'The Big Al', from the Strip. The Bucs are coming off their most complete game of the season, stopping the Packers 38-10. The 'under' still hit despite the fact they tied a season high in points. One of their touchdowns came via a pick-six, but they still have managed 31, 28, 38, 19 and 38 over the past five. After struggling in Week 1, QB Tom Brady looks acclimated to his new surroundings, and he is the same as he ever was. The defense has allowed 20 or fewer points in four of the past five, and they're the unit no one is focusing on. They're good. The 10 points allowed also matched a season low.
The Raiders are coming off a bye, and they are feeling good after a 40-32 win in Kansas City before the break. They have rolled up 34, 34, 20, 23 and 40 in five games, while the defense has coughed up 30, 24, 36, 30 and 32. All of those big numbers are why the 'over' is 4-0-1 for Las Vegas, including a perfect 2-for-2 on the 'over' in their new home.
Monday Night Football Notes
The Chicago Bears-Los Angeles Rams wrap up the Week 7 schedule on Monday night from SoFi Stadium. The Bears made a change to QB Nick Foles to start in Week 4, but the offense hasn't exactly been fire. They have scored 11, 20 and 23 in the past three games, actually averaging 18.0 PPG in three starts by Foles after managing 24.7 PPG in three starts by QB Mitchell Trubisky. The defense has come to the rescue, however, allowing 19, 19 and 16 in the past three, all 'under' results. The Rams hit the 'under' in San Francisco last week on SNF, and they also gone under in three in a row. The last time they played in their brand spanking new palacial stadium, they eeked out a 17-9 win over the Giants, an obvious 'under' result. In fact, each of their two games at home so far are unders, averaging 18.5 PPG while giving up just 13.0 PPG.
It wasn't a very good week for me in Week 6, as I dropped two of three games in my 'best' plays, and my teaser was a mess, too. Between college football and pro football last week, I would have been better off just flipping a coin. It happens to everyone on occasion, but it stinks when it goes south all together. I ended up well in the red (-$220), but still remaining ahead for the season overall (+$75). We'll look for a plus-number in Week 7 with four more wagers to build that bankroll back up.
Best Over: Over 51 Carolina-New Orleans
Best Under: Under 50.5 Pittsburgh-Tennessee
Best First-Half Total: Over 27 Detroit-Atlanta
Three-Team Total Teaser (+7, +135)
Over 44.5 Cleveland-Cincinnati
Under 52 Dallas-Washington
Under 51 Chicago-L.A. Rams
Week 6 & Overall Betting Results
Depending when and where you placed your bets, the ‘under’ went 10-4 in Week 6, and the over has a 49-42 (53.8%) advantage to date.
NFC vs. NFC
AFC vs. AFC
AFC vs. NFC
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