Even though we haven’t reached the midway point of the 2020 NFL regular season just yet, we’re slowly seeing the contenders separate themselves from the pretenders.
After watching over a month of action, I’ve decided to offer up my weekly exotic bets for VegasInsider.com.
While some bettors shy away from parlays, teasers and proposition wagers, the majority of tickets written in the NFL are focused on those markets.
I’m offering up my top selections below and hope you cash these tickets or your own exotic bets in Week 7. Good Luck!
All Odds and Payouts per FanDuel Sportsbook
NFL Week 7 Parlay Best Bets
Money-Line “Bounce-Back” Parlay
Green Bay Packers (-190)
Cleveland Browns (-178)
Dallas Cowboys (-116)
Payout: 3-Team Parlay +344 at FanDuel
Last week was about the furthest thing from smooth sailing for the three squads receiving the nod in this money-line parlay, as the Packers, Browns, and Cowboys were beaten by a combined 87 points in their respective Week 6 losses, which is why I am calling this a “Bounce-Back Parlay.”
I am giving Dallas a pass for the wretchedly awful performance against the Cardinals last Monday night, considering it was the first game following the season-ending injury to their quarterback, Dak Prescott, and it was just a fluky game in general, starting with the two early lost fumbles from Ezekiel Elliot.
The Cowboys signed Andy Dalton to a one-year, $3 million deal this past off-season, and even at this point in this career, I do not believe he is nearly as bad as he played in Dallas’ 38-10 loss last week (34/54, 266 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT).
I think Vegas is writing off the Cowboys a little too soon here. I still believe Dallas is better than Washington, and likely still has the better starting quarterback. Take the Cowboys to beat the 1-5 WFT’s this Sunday before people realize the Red Rocket still has some gas left in the tank.
The Packers also picked up their first loss last week in what was supposed to be a blockbuster quarterback duel between Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady but evolved into an absolute rout as the Buccaneers hung 38 unanswered points on Green Bay.
Matt LaFleur currently has a 17-4 record in the regular season as the head coach of the Packers and has never lost back to back games. They get a crack at a far inferior Texans (1-5) crew this upcoming Sunday, with their only win coming against Jacksonville. Give me Green Bay in a safe win over Houston.
The final leg of this parlay is the Browns (4-2) over the Bengals (1-4-1), which is a matchup that has already occurred once this season, but I think Vegas is offering an awfully cheap price tag on Cleveland here, thanks to its 38-7 blowout loss against Pittsburgh last week.
Cleveland claimed its first victory of the 2020 season back in Week 2 by squeaking past Cincinnati, 35-30. In that contest, Joe Burrow threw for a career-high 316 yards, 3 TD, and 0 INT and it still was not enough to get the job done the first time around.
Baker Mayfield is in dire need of a bounce-back performance on Sunday afternoon after being benched for Case Keenum down the stretch of last week’s game. Cincinnati is the perfect team to do it against, I like the Browns here.
Primetime “Hail Mary” Parlay
These selections are not ‘locks’ by any means, but if you happen to have a bad week against the books, rolling the dice on a longshot parlay like this could end up salvaging your bankroll and be a lot of fun if it connects.
The parlay is focusing on two money-line underdogs and while a long shot, the payout is close to 8/1.
Chicago Bears (+220)
Las Vegas Raiders (+176)
Payout: 2-Team Parlay +783 at FanDuel Sportsbook
The Raiders are set to square off with the Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football this week, and Jon Gruden’s team heads in lacking no confidence – coming off a win over the Chiefs in their last game, followed with a ‘bye.’
Las Vegas’ schedule has been brutal so far this season – having already matched up with New Orleans, New England, Buffalo, Carolina, and of course, Kansas City. They still boast a solid 3-2 record though and own the second-place spot in the AFC West.
The last time we saw the Buccaneers in Primetime, the game concluded with a dazed and confused Tom Brady trying to figure out what down it is in a Week 5 Thursday Night loss to Chicago. While this game was recently flexed into the afternoon spot due to testing, it’s still a big game and it will be nationally televised.
Everyone loves a good ‘upset’ and that’s why I’m rolling with the Raiders over the Bucs as my first upset of the week. Let’s just hope they play the game!
Speaking of Chicago…
I cannot remember the last time I saw a 5-1 team in the NFL listed as a +220 underdog against an opponent with an inferior record, but that is exactly what we have in the second leg of this parlay with the Bears (5-1) and Rams (4-2).
Victories are never “pretty” for Chicago, but we have seen quarterback, Nick Foles, put together some gutsy drives down the stretch of games when his defense is able to keep a narrow deficit on the scoreboard.
Regardless of the outcome, I think Los Angeles will struggle to move the ball against this stingy Chicago secondary and keep this game close. Give me some “Foles Monday Night Football Magic” at +220 odds to complete my “Hail Mary Parlay” ticket.
Steel Curtain/Monsters of the Midway Prop Parlay
Titans Under 26 total points vs. PIT (-108)
Rams Under 26 total points vs. CHI (-108)
Payout: 2-Team Parlay +271 at FanDuel Sportsbook
No disrespect to the legendary squads that earned these nicknames, but Chicago and Pittsburgh once again have two of the NFL’s most dominant defenses, and if you are a “boomer” who hates all the new pass-interference rules and fantasy football, this parlay might be something you could get behind.
The Titans have been absolutely rolling on offense, scoring 30+ points in four contests in a row against some “suspect” defenses to say the least (Texans, Bills, Titans, Jaguars). The only “real” defense Tennessee has matched up with this season was Denver in Week 1, when they barely edged Drew Lock and company 16-14.
Tennessee typically fails to get the offense going when Derrick Henry struggles, and I expect the sledding to be tough for him on Sunday afternoon against a Steelers front allowing an average of just 66 rushing yards per game. I think Tennessee gets handed its first loss of the year this week in a low-scoring affair. Give me the Titans ‘under’ 26 total points as the first leg of this parlay.
The highest point total Chicago has allowed all season was 26 points to the Falcons, in the game Foles entered in the 3rd quarter and led the Bears to a 30-26 comeback victory. Other than that one matchup with Atlanta, the Bears have held the rest of their opponents to an average of just 18.2 points per game.
Los Angeles will be the second-best offense this Chicago defense has matched up with this year, but I think they will still be able to keep Sean McVay’s guys under 26 points…
I do not think Chicago has 30+ in the tank, but for some reason this feels like a game they should be able to contest for a win. My final pick of the week is for the Rams to stay ‘under’ 26 total points on Monday night.
NFL Week 7 Teaser Best Bets
Under Green Bay-Houston 63.5
Over Seattle-Arizona 49.5 points
Over Carolina-New Orleans 45 points
Payout: 3-Team Teaser (6-Point) +140 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Clearly, I am on the “Packers Wagon” this week as I have them selected in my money-line parlay, but I am going to double-down on them in a different way here by throwing the Green Bay-Houston ‘under’ in my teaser.
I think the Packers are going to handle QB DeShaun Watson and company with ease on Sunday afternoon, and really stick it to Houston with the run-game on the offensive side of the ball via running back Aaron Jones. It is likely going to take 25+ points from the Texans to send this game ‘over’ 63.5 points. The ‘under’ here should be safe.
Fun Fact: New Orleans matched its lowest-scoring game of the season before the bye week, by knocking off the Chargers 30-27 (57 points) in OT. Saints’ games have 60.6 points games scored in them on average this year.
Now they get a crack at Carolina off a bye. I am riding the ‘over’ in the New Orleans-Carolina game at the adjusted total of 45.
The Cardinals dropped the hammer on Dallas last week during Monday Night Football, 38-10 – really shining the spotlight on all of Arizona’s offensive weapons not named wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (8 targets, 2 receptions).
Lucky for Hopkins, he is going up against one of the worst secondaries in the league this Sunday and his team is likely going to need a lot of points to stay competitive with the lead-candidate to win MVP, QB Russell Wilson of the Seattle Seahawks.
Arizona put on a show against Dallas on offense last week but did not utilize D-Hop nearly as much as they could have. My theory is that Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury has something up his sleeve for the Seahawks this week.
This matchup might be the most “fun” game of the weekend. Take the ‘over’ and watch them light up the scoreboard in what should not be a shortage of points.
Odds Subject to Change
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