Over-Under NFL Week 8 Total Predictions, Odds

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

21 minute read

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Handicapping Week 8 Totals

-- We head to Week 8 of the NFL regular season, and thankfully, knock on wood, we do not have any COVID issues or reschedules, although anything can still happen in this current environment. Last week we had a scare with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Las Vegas Raiders game being moved, but they were able to play, and the Seattle Seahawks-Arizona Cardinals game was moved to the Sunday Night Football spot and we were treated to one of the best games of the season in primetime.

-- The Raiders are the only team in the AFC with a goose egg in the 'under' column, hitting the 'over' in five of their first six outings with a push. The Raiders scoring defense ranks second-to-last in the NFL, coughing up 32.8 points per game (PPG), including 45 points last week against the Bucs. They have allowed 45, 32, 30, 36, 24 and 30 in their six outings this season.

-- The New Orleans Saints are the only team in the NFL with no pushes or 'under' results, hitting the 'over' 6-0 so far through their six contests. The Saints offense has rolled to 27, 30, 35, 30, 24 and 34 so far this season while allowing 24, 27, 29, 37, 34 and 23. When the Saints take the field you know it's going to be a track meet, although their streak will certainly be put to the test against the Chicago Bears outdoors. However, the Saints have hit the 'over' in five of their past six on a grass surface, too.

-- The lowest total on the board is the AFC East Division battle between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills. The Patriots offense has been moribund across the past three games, bottoming out with just six points in a blowout loss at home against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 7. The Patriots opened the season with 21, 30 and 36 in their first three outings, but they have posted 10, 12 and 6 across the past three, all losses and 'under' results. That's a dismal 8.0 PPG on offense. Defensively, the Patriots were tuned up for 33 last week, and they're coughing up 34.0 PPG to NFC West teams this season. Against the AFC, the Patriots are much better defensively, yielding 18.8 PPG in four outings.

-- The titanic NFC West showdown between the 49ers and Seahawks in the late window on Sunday has the highest total on this week's board at 54. The books are expecting a high-scoring game between the Tennessee Titans and Cincinnati Bengals, too, as that game has held relatively steady at 53.5.

-- Every team in the NFL has experienced at least two 'over' results this season except for the Cardinals, who have hit the 'under' in six of their seven contests. However, they easily hit the 'over' last Sunday night in a 37-34 overtime win over the Seahawks on SNF.

Over-Under Line Moves

We've had a decent amount of movement for several totals in Week 8, with all of the movement pushing the totals down. Bettors have reacted early and often.

Down

• Minnesota at Green Bay: 56 to 51.5
• Las Vegas at Cleveland: 55.5 to 51.5
• New England at Buffalo: 46 to 42.5
• New Orleans at Chicago: 47 to 43.5
• L.A. Rams at Miami: 49 to 46
• Pittsburgh at Baltimore: 49 to 46.5
• Tennessee at Cincinnati: 56 to 53.5

Over-Under Betting Trends

Listed below are the largest leans for Week 8 as of Thursday.

• N.Y. Jets at Kansas City: Over 96%
• Pittsburgh at Baltimore: Over 85%
• Tennessee at Cincinnati: Over 61%

• New Orleans at Chicago: Under 99%
• Minnesota at Green Bay: Under 97%
• L.A. Rams at Miami: Under 96%
• Tampa Bay at N.Y. Giants (MNF): Under 96%
• New England at Buffalo: Under 92%
• Indianapolis at Detroit: Under 91%
• Las Vegas at Cleveland: Under 89%

Division Over-Under Notes

The 'over' went 4-3 in the seven NFL Divisional battles in Week 7, but the 'under' is still ahead 18-13 (58.1%) overall this season. We have another six divisional matchups on tap for Sunday.

Minnesota at Green Bay: This game opened at 55.5, and it has quickly dropped to 51.5. We saw these teams play in Week 1, with QB Aaron Rodgers and company coming away with a thrilling 43-34 victory and easy 'over' result. The fact that bettors are dropping this total so much is likely due to the uncertainty if Vikings RB Dalvin Cook (groin) or Packers RB Aaron Jones (calf) will be available. Even without Jones the Packers were able to roll up 35 in Houston. The Packers have been dinged up most of the season, but they still have 30 or more points in five of their six outings. The 'over' is 3-1 in the past four for the Vikings, as they have posted a respectable 23, 26, 31 and 30 since a season-low 11 points of output in Week 2.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore: The marquee matchup of the weekend takes place in Baltimore. The Steelers are the only unbeaten team in the NFL, and that's because they have been one of the most consistent offensive units. Pittsburgh as 26 or more points in each of its six games, posting 26, 26, 28, 38, 38 and 27. That's good for a 3-1-1 run on the 'over' since an 'under' in Week 1. There is risk, however, as the Steelers rank first in total yards allowed with just 286.3, sixth in passing yards allowed at 217.5 and second against the rush with just 68.8 yards per game. For the Ravens, they have posted 30, 27 and 31 across their three-game winning streak, hitting the 'over' twice. The Ravens boast the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL, allowing 17.3 PPG, which is a good reason the 'under' has hit in four of their six games overall.

New England at Buffalo: The 'under' has connected in 10 of the previous 14 divisional games, including its only game against an AFC rival this season in Week 1 against the Miami Dolphins. The Bills opened the season with the 'over' going 4-0-1 in the first five games, but they have forgotten how to score lately. After posting 27, 31, 35 and 30 in the first four, the Bills have notched just 16, 17 and 18 in the past three, including 'under' results in the past two.

L.A. Chargers at Denver: The Chargers have found their quarterback of the future in QB Justin Herbert. The offense is really clicking over the past three games, hitting the 'over' in each outings after the 'under' hit in the first three. The Bolts have posted 39, 27 and 31 in the previous three after opening with 16, 20 and 16 in the first three. Defensively, the Chargers have relaxed a bit, coughing up 29, 30 and 38 in the past three. As far as the Broncos are concerned, they have alternated 'under' and 'over' results in each of their six games. They're a hard team to figure. They shut down New England 18-12 in Week 6, and then were tuned up 43-16 last week in an 'over' result. Before that Patriots game they coughed up 28 points to the lowly Jets.

San Francisco at Seattle: The 49ers defense looked impressive, posting a season-high 33 points in a blowout road win against the Patriots. Still, the 'under' hit because of their defensive effort. They have allowed 11.0 PPG in the past two, as they are starting to round into form after a slow start. The Seahawks were toasted for 37 points last week, hitting the 'over' for the fourth time in six games. MVP candidate QB Russell Wilson has helped the Seahawks score 27 or more points in each of their six games, and at least 31 in five of the contests. Seattle is the highest-scoring team in the NFL with 33.8 PPG, and they allow 28.7 PPG to rank in the bottom half of the NFL.

Dallas at Philadelphia (SNF): (see below)

Big Numbers

The New York Jets travel to meet the Kansas City Chiefs, and the game opened with the defending champs favored by 21 with a total holding steady around 49. Last season we saw several games with huge lines, and it ended up hitting the 'under' frequently. In Week 2 of the 2019 season, the Patriots won 43-0 in Miami to hit the 'under' (48.5). In Week 3 of 2019, the Patriots were favored by 20.5 points over the Jets, and they hit the 'over'. In that same week, the Cowboys were 22-point favorites over the Dolphins, and they won 31-6 to hit the 'under'. We saw a line of 15 in the Chargers-Dolphins game in Week 4 last season, and another 'under'. In Week 5 of 2019, the Patriots topped Washington 33-7 as 16.5-point road favorites, hitting another 'under'. Overall, in 2019 when we had a favorite of 12.5 or more points, the 'under' going 11-7.

Non-Conference Angles

Week 7 featured three AFC-NFC matchups and the totals saw the 'under' go 2-1.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Las Vegas Raiders (51.5) certainly didn't disappoint, as we had a high-scoring battle at Allegiant Stadium, 45-20. Depending on when you placed your total wager on Green Bay Packers-Houston Texans, you could have hit the 'over', but officially it closed at 55.5, and we had a total of 55 points, so we're calling it an official under result. We have just two AFC vs. NFC battles on tap for Week 8.

 Indianapolis at Detroit: The Colts have really enjoyed the home cooking, posting 31, 36 and 28 at home, including a 31-27 win and 'over' result against the Bengals last week. However, the road has been a different story for the Colts, scoring 23, 19 and 20. Indy's defense was on fire through the first four, allowing 14.0 PPG, but they have coughed up 29.5 PPG in the previous two, both 'over' results. The Lions have hit the 'under' in three of the past four, as their defense has come alive lately. They're allowing just 19.0 PPG in the previous two. 

L.A. Rams at Miami: The Rams have hit the 'under' in each of their past four outings, as the defense continues to impress. L.A. is allowing just 10, 24, 10 and 9 during the 4-0 'under' run, and the offense has averaged just 21.8 PPG. The Dolphins are coming off a bye, and turning to rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa under center, so it's a little uncertain how he'll stand up and perform against DT Aaron Donald and the suffocating Rams defense. What hasn't changed is Miami's defense, as they pitched a shutout before the break against the Jets in Week 6, and they yielded just 17 at San Francisco in Week 5. Miami has hit the 'under' in three of the past four, including 2-0 in their previous two at home.

Primetime Points

-- The 'under' went 1-2 in the three primetime games, as only the Seattle Seahawks-Arizona Cardinals game went 'over' (54.5). In fact, the 71 points tied a high for the weekend.
 
-- The 'under' has hit at a 14-9 (60.1%) clip in 23 primetime games so far this season. 

Sunday Night Football Notes

The Dallas Cowboys-Philadelphia Eagles tangle at Lincoln Financial Field. The Eagles offense has been serviceable lately, going for 22, 28 and 29, while allowing 21, 30 and 38 in the past three, hitting the 'over' in two of those outings. The books aren't expecting much in this game, with a total hovering at 43 as of Thursday morning. The Cowboys scored just three points last week in QB Andy Dalton's second start in place of the injured QB Dak Prescott. Things went from bad to worse, as Dalton was knocked out with a hit the head, so third-stringer Ben DiNucci came on. The Cowboys also sold off some defensive pieces, trading away DE Everson Griffen, while discarding DT Dontari Poe. The Cowboys have hit the 'under' in each of the past two because of an awful offense, and whether Dalton is healthy enough to start or not is of no consequence, really. The 'under' has cashed in five of the past seven in this series, and four of the past five in Philly.

Monday Night Football Notes

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers-New York Giants wraps up the Week 8 slate, and no, it's not a cruel joke from the NFL schedule maker. I mean, QB Tom Brady and the Bucs rolled up 45 points last week in Vegas, and they'll be fun to watch. But the Giants, on primetime televison for a second time in two weeks, and third time in eight? Ugh. Under bettors like the G-Men, as they have hit the 'under' in five of seven overall. They have scored 21, 20, 37, 9, 9, 13 and 16 this season. Lately they have figured out how to be successful despite losing RB Saquon Barkley for the season in Week 2.

Fearless Predictions

It was a disappointing week on picks again in Week 7. I pushed on the Carolina-New Orleans (51) 'over' play, and missed by a half-point on the Pittsburgh-Tennesse (50.5) 'under', as I published the pick mid-week. Technically it would have been a push, too, as it closed at 51, but we're honest here. At least my three-team teaser came through, but I still ended up in the red (-$85). Overall, I am officially in the red for the season (-$10). We'll look for a plus-number in Week 8 with four more wagers to build that bankroll back up.

• Best Over: Over 51.5 Las Vegas at Cleveland
• Best Under: Under 49 N.Y. Jets at Kansas City
• Best First-Half Total: Under 23.5 Pittsburgh at Baltimore

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7, +135)

• Under 53.5 Pittsburgh at Baltimore
• Over 44.5 Minnesota at Green Bay
• Under 53 Tampa Bay at N.Y. Giants (MNF)

Week 7 & Overall Betting Results

Depending when and where you placed your bets, the ‘under’ went 7-6-1 in Week 7, and the over has a 55-49-1 (52.9%) advantage to date. 

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