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Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:52 AM

Hot & Not Report - Week 10

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Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under - O/U

NFL Week 10 Betting Angles

The weeks just keep rolling by in this NFL season and it was a break even week for that pre-TNF (Thursday Night Football) run that remains at the status quo.

Baltimore was the side to cash against the Colts, but Tennessee nearly let the Chicago Bears through the back door when all was said and done.

With Arizona and Seattle on deck for next week's TNF game, keeping the fade alive is an interesting proposition.

Both of them are lined on either side of tight pick'em-like games, and for one to cash it would mean that the Buffalo Bills beat both of them in consecutive weeks.

A 13-4 straight up run for road teams in non-conference tilts didn't perform well with Denver, Seattle, Chicago, and Pittsburgh the four losses in a 2-4 week for that previous run.

Going back to that in Week 10 would lead you to Buffalo yet again - at Arizona – as well as the Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay, and you know the oddsmakers will be hoping the Jags show up.

The high scoring in those non-conference games did continue though, as a 4-2 O/U record against the closing number could have been 5-1 O/U if you got the 'over' in Pittsburgh/Dallas mid-week.

The average points in those six games clocked in at 58.66 bumping that average up yet still. Seeing points in any Arizona or Seattle game is the norm, so who wants to pull the trigger on a Buffalo-Over parlay?

It's not all good news for the Bills on a larger scale though.

Who's Hot and Not

Only 8 of the 32 NFL teams have a losing ATS record when coming off a loss

Only 11 of the 32 NFL teams have a winning ATS record when coming off a win

The specifics of which teams land in either category always have a place, but in the general sense, this suggests that starting with games where you are looking to back a team off a loss versus a team off a win isn't the worst option in the world.

Week 10 starts with one of those games as the Colts (off a loss) visit Tennessee (off a win) in a divisional game that will go a long way in deciding that division.

But it was the curiosity about the Bills/Cardinals game that brought me here to begin with, as Buffalo was starting to look too good to be true.

It will be interesting to see just how interested the market ends up in that game as it's one that has the potential to generate plenty of action or really not much at all. But with the Cardinals needing to rebound off that home loss as chalk before a return match with Seattle next Thursday, do the Bills get burnt by reading too many headlines before their bye week?

This line of thought is also good news for the Jacksonville Jaguars this week, who you know will be needed to at least put an outright scare in the Packers for teasers at least. They lost to Houston in a failed comeback, while Green Bay got to beat a San Francisco team that had half their unit still wearing name tags on their helmets.

Who Could You Follow in Week 10?

  • Colts
  • Cardinals
  • Jaguars
  • Browns
  • Broncos
  • Chargers
  • 49ers
  • Bears

Other plays that would fit this off loss vs off win scenario include Cleveland (-3) vs Houston, Denver (+5) @ Las Vegas, the LA Chargers (+2.5) @ Miami, San Francisco (+10) vs New Orleans, and the Chicago Bears (+2.5) vs Minnesota.

You've really got to spend time doing your homework on some of those games to want to confidently get behind some of those teams, but there is also time to wait as well because it's not likely many of those spreads are going to move too far in the favor of those suggested options.

There are a couple of specific notes to make as well with a few of those games.

For example, Minnesota is one of those 11 teams to have a winning ATS mark off a victory, as they are now 2-0 ATS in that role and covering the number by 8.2 points in those games.

The Miami Dolphins are another one of those 11 teams at 3-1 ATS off a win, with a margin that's actually better than the Vikings at +8.5.

With the Chargers ability to continually find new ways to come up short, taking as many points as you can with them is always going to be the best way to go, and with how the Dolphins grade out in traditional methods on defense especially, Miami's support is always going to be just fine there.

And then there is the 49ers, who've had a few extra days to get those initial greetings out of the way, catching the Saints between division games.

New Orleans couldn't have played much better in that high profile game against Tampa, and a home date against the rallying Falcons next week isn't the best spot to be in by any means.

Flat spot or not, how comfortable can you be holding any 49ers ticket?


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