Week 11 of the NFL season is here and as division races start to tighten up and contenders begin to take form, this week’s slate of games is jam-packed with more exciting matchups and playoff implications across the board, as bettors eagerly prepare for another week of NFL action.
While we are certainly in for another entertaining week of football, bettors are still left in a tough position trying to figure out which teams they want to hitch their wagon to for the remainder of this regular season.
I believe I have found a few betting edges for some crucial games this upcoming weekend, and have chosen to give out my picks for two parlays and one teaser, hoping to help NFL bettors cash winning tickets or inspire them to build parlays of their own.
My top selections for Week 11 can be found below.
NFL Week 11 Parlay Best Bets
Money Line Parlay: The Southeastern
New Orleans Saints (-215) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Miami Dolphins (-176) at Denver Broncos
Payout: 2-Team Parlay +130 at FanDuel
The Saints have known for quite some time now that their quarterback, Drew Brees (41 years old), is running out of time to capture his second career Super Bowl before retirement, which is why New Orleans went out and acquired the league’s leader in passing yards from last season (Jameis Winston – 5,109) to serve as a backup during what is assumed to be Brees’ final campaign in the NFL.
Now, with the Saints’ QB being ruled out indefinitely with a rib injury and a punctured lung, Winston will take on the role of the starter this week in a divisional matchup with the 3rd place Falcons.
For those who have forgotten about Winston already, he was the number 1 overall pick in the 2015 draft and has been a starter in the NFC South for the last five years, but just recently had his job stolen by Tom Brady in Tampa Bay, which is how life goes sometimes.
When Brees went down last season with an injury, it was Teddy Bridgewater who stepped in and delivered a perfect 5-0 record during the absence of the Saints’ veteran quarterback, earning Teddy a three-year 63 million dollar deal and the starting job in Carolina.
Over that time period though, New Orleans’ defense surrendered just 23 points per game, which comfortably ranked them inside the top 10 in points allowed over that stretch.
I don’t think Winston is quite as good as Bridgewater right now, but I do believe this situation is similar as the Saints defense appears to be heating up at just the right time.
The storyline for New Orleans over the last few weeks has been dominated by their defensive front, as the Saints held the 49ers to just 13 points last week, and stifled Brady and the Bucs to just 3 points the week before that.
Brees ranks 21st in the NFL in yards per attempt (7.4) this season, and I think the New Orleans recieivers actually have the potential to benefit from letting the ball fly a little bit more on offense (Winston – 8.16).
I expect the Saints defense to step up and have a solid game during their quarterback’s first absence, and I expect Winston to be just good enough to get it done against the 3-6 Falcons on Sunday afternoon.
Give me New Orleans on the money line to start.
When the 3-3 Dolphins made the switch at quarterback from Ryan Fitzpatrick over to the rookie, Tua Tagovailoa, following the team’s bye week, it seemed like a questionable decision given the team’s recent relative success.
The decision has paid off beautifully though, as the Dolphins have posted a perfect 3-0 record since the quarterback change against a brutal schedule consisting of the Rams, Cardinals, and Chargers.
Miami ranks 5th in the NFL in points allowed per game (20.2) and has a young quarterback that is yet to turn the ball over in a professional game yet (5 TD, 0 INT, 0 FL).
Broncos’ quarterback, Drew Lock, has thrown just 6 touchdowns compared to 10 interceptions over his last five games, and I expect him to throw at least two more this week against a Miami defense tied for 2nd in the NFL in takeaways per game (1.7).
I really like the Dolphins recipe for success right now. Give me Miami on the money line to complete this parlay.
Money Line Parlay: The Underdog, Aaron Rodgers
Payout: 3-Team Parlay +242 at FanDuel
Green Bay Packers (+102) at Indianapolis Colts
Baltimore Ravens (-260) vs. Tennessee Titans
Pittsburgh Steelers (-450) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Division leaders from opposing conferences will clash on Sunday afternoon as the (6-3) Indianapolis Colts will host the (7-2) Green Bay Packers at 4:25.
It feels like the books just dare bettors to take an underdog on the money line in a contest or two every week, and this week books decided to offer Aaron Rodgers and the Packers as one, so consider this week’s dare accepted.
The Colts sit atop the extremely weird AFC South, but I am still not yet sold on this team as the majority of their wins have come in ugly contests with the Bengals, Jets, Lions, and Vikings. While Indianapolis has also managed to drop games against the Jaguars and Browns.
Baltimore has been the only real test Indianapolis has faced so far this season, and the Colts got manhandled in that game (24-10) by a Ravens team that has seemed to struggle against everybody they come across in recent weeks.
Indianapolis is slightly favored in this matchup mainly because they are the home team and its defense is ranked 4th in the league in points allowed per game (19.7), but I have a feeling this Colts secondary could be in for a rude awakening this week against a Green Bay offense averaging 30.8 points and 395.8 yards per game.
The Packers are 6-3 ATS this season, while the Colts are 5-4 ATS.
Phillip Rivers likely lacks the firepower to keep up with the Packers in a shootout at this point in his career, which is what I think this game will probably turn into. I am going to ride with the better quarterback as an underdog here in Rodgers.
Give me Green Bay over Indianapolis in an upset to kickoff this parlay.
Speaking of the Ravens, Baltimore will get a rematch against the team that sent them home in last year’s playoffs, as the Titans come to town this week.
The Ravens lost to the Patriots last week on Sunday Night Football (24-17), which was a fluke-game played in such heavy rain that receivers were taking off their gloves so they could get a better grip on the ball, and Bill Belichick managed to outcoach Jon Harbaugh by just a smidge at the end of the day.
Tennessee comes into this matchup following a blowout loss to the Colts (34-17) and has now lost three of its last four games after jumping out to a 5-0 start to the season.
Part of the Titans’ struggles can be attributed to their 31st ranked third-down defense, as opposing teams are converting on over 53% of their tries. Another part of it could be Tennessee’s inability to crack 25 points in three consecutive games.
Whatever the problem is, give me the Ravens as I believe they bounce back against the Titans this week.
For the final leg of this parlay, the last undefeated team in the league will take on a team that has been defeated plenty of times this year, as the (9-0) Steelers will visit the (1-8) Jaguars.
This year’s Steelers team does not have the “feel” of an undefeated squad, but here they are in Week 11 trying to make it 10 straight against a Jacksonville team depleted of talent.
I really believe Pittsburgh will lose a game before this regular season is over, but it won’t be this week against rookie, Jake Luton, who will be making just his third career NFL start.
Give me the Steelers on the money line to close out this parlay.
Los Angeles Chargers -3.5 (-9.5) vs. N.Y. Jets
Minnesota Vikings -1 (-7) vs. Dallas Cowboys
Kansas City Chiefs -2 (-8) at Las Vegas Raiders
Payout: 3-Team Six-Point Teaser +140 at FanDuel
The Los Angeles Chargers have played pretty good football ever since rookie, Justin Herbert, took over at quarterback for the Bolts (L6 – 29 ppg.), but find themselves on a three-game losing streak heading into their matchup with the Jets this week (losses to – Denver, Las Vegas, and Miami).
Luckily for the Chargers, they get their “Jets Bye” this week, as Joe Flacco and the third best team from the state of New York will take a trip to the west coast to likely lose another game as the sweepstakes for the soon-to-be number one overall pick, Trevor Lawrence, continue heat up.
The (0-9) Jets are an absolute dumpster fire, and they have given me no reason to believe they are going to win a game this year, or at least until Sam Darnold returns from injury to audition for a job with another team.
Give me the Chargers -3.5 to get over the hump this week against the Jets.
Speaking of dumpster fires, the Dallas Cowboys are back in action this week, and this time around they will be hosting the Minnesota Vikings who are currently riding a three-game win streak with victories over the Packers, Lions, and Bears over the last few weeks.
The Cowboys run defense has been terrible this year to put it softly, ranking 31st in rushing yards allowed per game (157) and 30th in rushing yards per attempt (5.0), and they haven’t even faced Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook yet who is averaging 112.4 total yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry.
Andy Dalton will return for the Cowboys this Sunday, but it shouldn’t matter as I expect the Vikings to be able to move the football up and down the field with ease through the run-game, and for Dallas’ o-line to fall apart at some point against an underrated Minnesota defensive front.
Give me the Vikings -1 to beat the Cowboys in Jerry’s World.
For the final leg of this teaser, I am diving into Sunday Night Football’s grudge match between AFC West rivals as the Kansas City Chiefs will make their first appearance at Allegiant Stadium against the Las Vegas Raiders.
In the first matchup between Kansas City and Las Vegas this season, the Raiders won a tightly contested game (40-32), handing Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs their first and only loss of this season, in a contest which Derek Carr threw for 347 yards and three touchdowns.
Following their victory over Kansas City, all of the attention was focused on the Raiders for a solid week, until the Buccaneers spanked them back to kingdom come in their next game and everybody realized it was all just a fluke (45-20).
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