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Nov 24, 2020

Over-Under NFL Thanksgiving Total Predictions, Odds

Editor's Note: Don't miss out on NFL Winners from Joe Williams on VegasInsider.com this season. Click to win!

Editor's Note: The Baltimore-Pittsburgh game will be played on Sunday Nov. 29

Handicapping Thanksgiving Day Totals

-- We're on to Week 12 of the NFL regular season, and we have the usual helping of three Thanksgiving Day games to enhance your holiday on Thursday.

-- Depending when and where you placed your bets, the ‘under’ went 8-6 in Week 11, and the over has a 85-74-2 (53.4%) advantage to date. 

- In last year's Thanksgiving Day games, we saw the 'over' connect in the Chicago Bears-Detroit Lions game, as the Bears won 24-20. If you remember, quarterback David Blough started for the beleaguered Lions, and the total was just 37.

-- In the middle game, the Buffalo Bills surprised the Dallas Cowboys, 26-15 as the 'under' connected.

-- In the late contest, the New Orleans Saints continued the road dominance, winning 26-18. More importantly to our purposes here, the 'under' cashed.

Thanksgiving Day Over-Under Results (Last 10 Years)

Thanksgiving Totals (2010-2019)
Year Lions Game Cowboys Game Late Game
2010 Over 50.5 Over 48 Under 43
2011 Under 55 Under 46 Under 40
2012 Over 49 Over 47 Over 48.5
2013 Over 48.5 Over 49.5 Over 40.5
2014 Over 46 Under 56 Under 40
2015 Over 47 Over 44.5 Under 45
2016 Under 42.5 Over 53 Under 50
2017 Over 46 Under 46.5 Under 44
2018 Under 43 Over 40 Under 61.5
2019 Over 37 Under 47 Under 48

Over-Under Line Moves

We've had a decent amount of early movement for the Week 12 Thanksgiving Day games. 

Down

  • Washington at Dallas: 48 to 46
  • Baltimore at Pittsburgh: 46 to 44.5

Up

  • Houston at Detroit: 51 to 51.5

Over-Under Betting Trends

Listed below are the largest leans for Week 12 as of Tuesday.

  • Baltimore at Pittsburgh: Under 96%
  • Houston at Detroit: Under 86%
  • Washington at Dallas: Under 72%

Divisional Over-Under Notes

The 'under' went 2-1 in the three NFL Divisional battles in Week 11, and the 'under' is now tied 27-26-1 (50.9%) overall this season.

Two of the three Thanksgiving Day games are divisional matchups.

Washington at Dallas - Over/Under Analysis

The Washington Football Team and Dallas Cowboys have met in Big D three times since Nov. 22, 2012.

Every Thanksgiving battle between these heated rivals in the past decade has hit the 'over', including the most recent meeting on Nov. 22, 2018, a 31-23 victory.

In fact, Dallas has scored exactly 31 points in each of the past three Thanksgiving appearances against Washington, all 'over' results.

Of course, those games were with either QB Tony Romo or QB Dak Prescott under center. This will be QB Andy Dalton's first Thanksgiving Day start for the Cowboys.

The 'under' has cashed in two of Dalton's three starts for Dallas so far, including a 25-3 loss in D.C. in Week 7. That's the game where Dalton suffered a hit to the head and was knocked out with a concussion.

As far as the current season is concerned, Washington enters on a 5-1 'under' run, although the over/under is 2-2 in their past four road contests, including an 'over' result last time out at Detroit, a 30-27 loss in Week 10.

The 'under' is 3-1 in the past four for Washington against the NFC East, including 3-0 in the past three games.

The Cowboys also enter on a 4-1 'under' run, although the offense went for 31 points in a road win at Minnesota last week, the highest offensive output since Dalton took the reins of the offense.

The Cowboys are favored, and the 'over' is 3-2 in five games as a favorite this season, with the 'over' 3-1 in four home games as a favorite.

The 'over' is also 7-2 in Washington's past nine appearances on a Thursday, while going 8-2 in the previous 10 meetings with the Cowboys. The 'over' is also 5-0 in the past five meetings in Dallas. The 'over' is 5-2 in the past seven home games for Dallas, and 9-4 in their past 13 divisional games.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh - Over/Under Analysis

The Ravens limp into this one with losses in back-to-back games, with defense the issue. They have allowed 30 and 23 across the past two games, and an average of 23.8 PPG in the past five, with the 'over' going 3-2.

The Ravens have the No. 1 rushing offense in the NFL, posting 160.5 yards per game, but the pass attack has been marginal and they are averaging just 26.8 PPG to rank 12th.

Defensively, it's business as usual for the Ravens, as they're third in scoring defense with just 19.5 PPG.

The offense will have a different look for the Ravens, though. COVID-19 has reared its ugly head, and running backs Mark Ingram and rookie J.K. Dobbins have tested positive for the coronavirus and are on the Reserve/COVID-19 list.

They're sit on Thursday night, so RBs Gus Edwards and Justice Hill will be counted upon to pick up the slack.

The last time these teams faced each other, Pittsburgh edged Baltimore 28-24 at M&T Bank Stadium in Week 8 as the 'over' (44) connected. 

The unbeaten Steelers have watched the 'under' going 3-1-2 across their past six, and they have yielded just 10.7 PPG across the past three.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's offense has been on point, posting at least 24 points in all 10 games so far this season. They rank fourth in the NFL with 29.8 PPG, which is great for 'over' plays, but they're first in the league in scoring defense with just 17.4 PPG allowed.

In three divisional games the total is 1-1-1 so far for the Steelers, while the 'under' is 2-1 in three games vs. AFC North for the Ravens.

This will be the first meeting on Thanksgiving night between these AFC North rivals since Nov. 28, 2013, a home win by the Ravens, 22-20 as the 'over' (40.5) just hit.

As mentioned above in the chart, the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 in the past six 8:20 p.m. ET kickoffs on Thanksgiving night. The last 'over' result was the game between these two teams in 2013.

Non-Conference Angles

Week 11 featured three non-conference matchups and the under went 2-1.

On Thanksgiving we have the early game as the lone AFC vs. NFC matchup to kick off the holiday festivites.

Houston at Detroit - Over/Under Analysis

The Texans picked up a much-needed win, 27-20 over the New England Patriots in Week 11, but the 'under' connected. It's the first time this season that the 'under' has hit in consecutive games for Houston.

That's because the defense has stepped up, as the Texans are allowed just 15.0 PPG over the past two. Of course, that's helped out by Mother Nature, as we saw wintry mix, cold rain and wind in their Week 10 loss at Cleveland.

In the three games from Weeks 6, 7 and 9, the Texans coughed up 42, 35 and 25.

The Texans have seen the over/under go 1-1 in two previous games against NFC North teams this season, and this is their first foray on the road against such teams. They have allowed 35 and 31 in the two prior games vs. NFC North clubs.

For the Texans, the 'over' is 5-1 in their past six road games, and 4-1 in the past five as a road favorite. The 'over' is also 8-3 in their past 11 on the road against teams with a losing home record.

The Lions were blanked on Sunday in Charlotte against the Carolina Panthers, their first shutout loss since Week 6 of the 2009 season, which is when QB Matthew Stafford was a rookie.

It was a shocking turn of events, as the Lions had posted at least 20 points in each of the first nine games this season, including 30 points in Week 10 against Washington.

The Lions hit the 'over' last Thanksgiving despite a rash of injuries. The last time Detroit hit the 'over' on consecutive Thanksgiving appearances was a 4-0 'over' Turkey trot from 2012-2015.

For the Lions, they have hit the 'over' in 10 of the past 11 games at Ford Field. The 'over' is also 7-1 in the past eight as a home 'dog, and 7-2 in the previous nine appearances on a Thursday.

Fearless Predictions

The results in Week 11 were not good yet again, going (-$-210), and overall I am sitting at a dismal and inexcusable (-$845) for the season. I hope your bankroll is much healthier.

We'll look to rally in Week 12 with four more wagers on Thanksgiving, and with four more for Sunday.

  • Best Over: Over 46 Washington at Dallas
  • Best Under: Under 51.5 Houston at Detroit
  • Best First-Half Total: Under 26 Houston at Detroit

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7, +135)

  • Under 58.5 Houston at Detroit
  • Over 39 Washington at Dallas
  • Under 52 Baltimore at Pittsburgh

Week 11 & Overall Betting Results

Depending when and where you placed your bets, the ‘under’ went 8-6 in Week 11, and the over has a 85-74-2 (53.4%) advantage to date. 

Week 10 Total Results
Year Over/Under
Divisional matchups 1-2
NFC vs. NFC 2-1
AFC vs. AFC 2-3
AFC vs. NFC 1-2

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