Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:52 AM
Week 12 Parlay, Teaser & Prop Best Bets
Week 12 of the NFL season in underway after two games on Thanksgiving afternoon properly kicked off what is set to be another great slate of matchups on the gridiron.
After nailing all five bets in my Turkey Day piece from Thursday, I'm coming back with the rest of my picks for this week hoping to help bettors cash winning tickets or inspire them to build parlays of their own.
My bets for Week 12 can be found below.
NFL Week 12 Parlay Best Bets
Two-Way Straight Parlay
- Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Bills-Chargers Over 53
Payout: 2-Team Parlay +272 at FanDuel
The Kansas City Chiefs will square off with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, in what is potentially the most highly anticipated matchup of the week as Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady will have their first meeting as members of opposing conferences.
Kansas City has undeniably possessed the best offense in the NFL yet again this season, ranking 1st in points scored per game (32.9) and 2nd in total yards per game (414.1), while the almighty Buccaneers rank just 18th in total yards per game (357.8) and 6th in points scored per game (29.1).
All of the buzz heading into this matchup seems to surround Mahomes matching up against another elite defensive lineup (6th yards allowed per game – 310.5), but the real difference in this game will likely by determined by what Brady is able to do against an underrated Chiefs’ defense that has not received anywhere close to the proper amount of credit it deserves this season.
The Chiefs defense ranks top 10 in both points allowed per game this season (21.4), and takeaways per game (1.5) which is an extremely impressive feat given how many extra possessions their offense tends to generate for opposing teams due to how quick and efficiently Mahomes and company score.
According to Pro-Football Reference, Brady leads the league in “bad throws” with 83, which is almost 10 more errant passes than Eagles’ QB, Carson Wentz (2nd – 74) , who is having a dumpster fire of a season over in the NFC East so far.
Kansas City is 7-0 ATS when favored by 6 points or less over its last stint.
I like the Chiefs for a plethora of reasons in this matchup. Give me Kansas City -3.5 to start.
The Buffalo Bills and the Los Angeles Chargers will also meet up on Sunday in what I believe will result in an extremely high scoring affair.
The Chargers have now cashed ‘over’ tickets in seven straight games, which can mainly be attributed to the play of their rookie quarterback, Justin Herbert, who has propelled his offense up the charts to 3rd in passing yards per game (279.6) and 15th in points scored per game (26).
On the flip-side of things, Buffalo has cashed ‘over’ tickets in three consecutive contests now, giving the ‘over’ an 8-2 record in Bills games so far this season, thanks to an offense led by Josh Allen scoring 27.2 points per game.
Both Buffalo and Los Angeles defenses’ rank in the bottom 12 in points allowed per game, as the Bills sit at 20th (26.5) while the Chargers sit at 24th (27.3).
Herbert and Allen have already combined for 43 touchdown passes so far this season, and I think this Sunday should serve as a great opportunity to pad those totals against a couple of soft defenses.
I’ll take Buffalo-Los Angeles over 53 total points to close out this parlay.
NFL Week 12 Teaser Best Bets
- New Orleans Saints PK at Denver Broncos (-6)
- Miami Dolphins -1 at N.Y. Jets (-7)
- Green Bay Packers -3 vs Chicago Bears (-9)
Payout: 3-Team Six-Point Teaser (+133) at FanDuel
Taysom Hill got his first career start at quarterback last week for the injured Drew Brees, and New Orleans seemed to avoid missing a beat on both sides of the ball as the Saints took care of the Falcons, 24-9, behind 18-23 completions, 282 yards of total offense, and two touchdowns from their backup QB.
The Saints defense has played absolutely lights out over its last three games, holding the Buccaneers, 49ers, and Falcons to an average of 8.3 points per game.
Broncos’ quarterback, Drew Lock, ranks 2nd in the NFL in interceptions thrown (11), 25th in net passing yards per play (6.1), 32nd in QBR (67.5), and yes, 33rd in completion percentage (55.6%).
Lock has had a season to forget so far in 2020 and things do not get any easier against a red-hot New Orleans team. I think this Saints’ defense is going to eat him alive this week. Give me the Saints -0 to beat the Broncos.
The Miami Dolphins will visit the New York Jets this Sunday and this time around there might be a little extra energy filling the Jets’ locker room, as quarterback, Sam Darnold, is set to make his return from injury.
New York is undeniably a better team with Darnold under-center, considering Joe Flacco backs him up, but I still believe this is the worst team in football, regardless who is playing quarterback.
Miami’s defense ranks 4th in points allowed per game (20.2) and takeaways per game (1.7), which is likely bad news for Darnold in his first week back, who struggled miserably before his injury (6 games, 58.64% completions, 3 TD, 6 INT).
Although he had a poor performance against Denver last week, Dolphins’ QB, Tua Tagovailoa, is still yet to turn the ball over in an NFL contest, which leads me to believe that Miami will easily win the turnover battle and dominate time of possession in this game.
I think New York wins a game before the year is over, but surely not this one. Give me the Dolphins -1 to bounce back against the Jets.
The final leg of this parlay comes from Sunday Night Football’s Chicago-Green Bay game, which Bears’ quarterback, Nick Foles, has officially been ruled out for, placing the ball back in Mitch Trubisky’s court as the UNC-product will start is 4th game of the 2020 season.
Trubisky jumped out to 3-0 record as the starter in the beginning of this season before being benched (59% completions, 6.51 YPA, 6 TD, 3 INT), which may seem impressive given the Bears record since the QB swap (2-5), but Chicago’s first three matchups of the year were against the Giants, Falcons, and Lions, who have since then posted a combined record of 10-21.
I truly believe Trubisky was just the beneficiary of an extremely weak schedule to start this year, and now most people have forgotten just how objectively bad he has been throughout his career.
The Packers are a legit contender in the NFC and I think they are being offered at an awfully cheap price here. Back them to win this game by at least a field goal, Packers -2.5.
NFL Week 12 TD Prop Best Bets
Anytime NFL Touchdown Scoring Prop Odds
Wayne Gallman (+105)
Giants running-back, Devonta Freeman, has now missed substantial time with an ankle injury which has set the stage for Wayne Gallman to take over backfield duties in New York during the last four weeks.
Over that stretch, Gallman has rumbled for 5 touchdowns and more than 250 yards of total offense, while looking forward to this week where he will get another start against a Bengals defense ranking 30th in rushing yards allowed per game (136.2) and 19th in opponent rush attempts per game (27.4).
Back Gallman to punch in his 6th touchdown in just his 5th start at running back for the Giants this Sunday.
Keenan Allen (+125)
Chargers’ wideout, Keenan Allen, is now really beginning to find some solid chemistry with his rookie quarterback, securing a touchdown in four consecutive games, making that in six TD’s in his last eight games.
Back him to secure another one this week at +125 odds against a Bills’ defense surrendering over 238 passing yards per game.
Nick Chubb (-155)
DraftKings’ line is juiced heavily, but this is still a bet I am backing with confidence and a line that could differentiate depending on your book. The Jaguars are decimated by injury on the offensive side of the ball, so ultimately this is a game Cleveland should be able to control the tempo of easily and frankly dominate.
The Browns refuse to throw the ball with a lead which tends to get them in trouble at times, but they should have no problem moving the ball up and down the field through the running game against a Jacksonville defense ranking 24th in rushing touchdowns allowed per game (1.3) and rushing yards allowed per game (129.1). Back Nick Chubb (-155) to score a touchdown in this contest, maybe more if the price is right.
Odds Subject to Change - per FanDuel
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