Betting Recap – Week 12

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

17 minute read

Editor's Note: Don't miss out on Winning Football Picks from Joe Williams for the 2020 NFL regular season. Click to win!

Overall Notes

The largest underdogs to win straight up

• 49ers (+5.5, ML +195) at Rams, 23-20
• Falcons (+3.5, ML +155) vs. Raiders, 43-6
• Titans (+3, ML +125) at Colts, 45-26
• Washington (+2.5, ML +125) at Cowboys (Thu.), 41-16

The largest favorites to cover

• Saints (-17) at Broncos, 31-3
• Packers (-8) vs. Bears, 41-25
• Dolphins (-7.5) at Jets, 20-3
• Bills (-4) vs. Chargers, 27-17

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Kansas City Chiefs-Tampa Bay Buccaneers game was a bummer if you bet the favorite. The Chiefs (-3.5) fired out to a 17-0 lead after 15 minutes, as QB Patrick Mahomes and WR Tyreke Hill combined for over 200 yards -- in the first quarter. Things settled down a bit in the second quarter, as the Buccaneers scored the only touchdown in the quarter to slice the K.C. lead to 20-7 at the break.

In the third quarter, the Chiefs flipped the script, and the Chiefs were leading 27-10. The Chiefs were looking unstoppable, and Mahomes and the pass offense was flirting with 500 before the end of the game. However, the Bucs certainly gave the Chiefs a scare late, showing absolutely no quit.

In the final 15 minutes, the Buccaneers outscored the Chiefs 14-0, and the Chiefs ended up with a 27-24 win, and the Bucs ended up picking up the backdoor cover. The way this one started out, that never looked possible.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The game between the Carolina Panthers-Minnesota Vikings was a bummer on both sides. If you had Carolina on the moneyline (+125), it was a tough pill to swallow. If you had Under (50), it was equally disappointing.

The Panthers picked up a pair fumble recoveries and touchdowns, both by CB Jeremy Chinn, as the Panthers took a 21-10 lead into the final quarter. Under bettors still looked to be in good shape, however.

The two teams exchanged field goals, but the score was 24-13 with just under six minutes to go before the Vikings struck for a touchdown and two-point conversion to cut the lead to 24-21 with 5:31 left in regulation. PK Joey Slye booted a field goal from 21 yards out to push their lead to six with 1:51 to play.

Under bettors were still OK, as were Panthers ML bettors, until QB Kirk Cousins led the team down the field and hit WR Chad Beebe for a 10-yard touchdown with :46 left, giving the Vikings a lead. Carolina ML bettors still had a shot, but a field goal at the horn went well wide to the left.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board for the Sunday slate was the New Orleans Saints-Denver Broncos (36.5), and that total was reminiscent of the 1980's and 1990's when we would routinely see totals in the 30's. Now, it's an extreme rarity.

The Broncos had their top three quarterbacks on the Reserve/COVID-19 list, so they recalled WR Kendall Hinton from the practice squad. The converted wide receiver played quarterback at Wake Forest, and he was summoned to make his first NFL start. It ended how you would imagine. He completed just one of his nine pass attempts, and was brutal. But it was an extremely unfair situation for him to be put into.

The Saints moved to 2-0 with QB Taysom Hill under center, as he ran for two more touchdowns to win it 31-3, covering a 17-point number on the road, too.

The highest total on Sunday was the Chiefs-Buccaneers game (56.5), but the over was never really threatened, as it took late heroics by the Bucs just to get it to a total of 51 points.

In the first primetime game Sunday night, the Chicago Bears-Green Bay Packers (44), the game easily went over, and the Pack nearly took care of it all by themselves. In Monday's Seattle Seahawks-Philadelphia Eagles (49) game, we saw under hit, with Wednesday's Baltimore Ravens-Pittsburgh Steelers (41.5) still left to be played this week.

So far this season the under is 23-14 (62.2%) across 37 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 13

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Saints and Falcons square off for the second time in three weeks. New Orleans picked up a 24-9 win in Week 11 at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in NOLA, covering a 3.5-point number as the 'under' (49.5) was never in doubt. Hill made his first start in place of the injured QB Drew Brees (ribs) in that one, and he proved all of the doubters wrong. The Saints are on a eight-game winning streak, and they have covered four in a row with four straight 'under' results. For the Falcons, they routed the Raiders 43-6 on Sunday, and they're 3-1 SU/ATS over the past four, with just that loss to the Falcons in the L column. The 'under' is 4-1 across the past five for ATL, too.

As far as trends, the Saints are 4-1 ATS in the past five trips to Atlanta, and 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings overall. The 'under' is 4-0 in the past four in this series, and 8-3 in the past 11 meetings overall.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Colts were shellacked at home by the Titans, 45-26, as the 'over' (51.5) easily connected. Meanwhile, the Texans registered a 41-25 win in the early game on Thanksgiving, covering a three-point number on the road as the 'over' (52.5) cashed.

Houston has won back-to-back games for the first time this season, and they have covered a season-high three in a row after a 1-6 ATS start to the season. Indy has won each of its past two road trips, a 34-17 win in Tennessee on Nov. 12, and a 41-21 win at Detroit on Nov. 1 in Week 8. The 'over' is 3-0 in the past three for Indy, and 6-1 across the past seven for the Colts.

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)

The Rams are looking to bounce back after a disappointing 23-20 loss at home to the 49ers in Week 12. The 'under' (44.5) held on for L.A. The 'under' (50.5) also cashed in a disappointing 20-17 loss for the Cardinals in New England, so both teams should enter this one in a rather foul mood.

L.A. is 9-1 ATS across the past 10 games following a non-cover, and 6-1-1 ATS in the past eight following a straight-up loss. They're also 11-5 ATS in the past 16 on the road. For Arizona, they're 5-1-1 ATS in the past seven as an underdog, while going 3-1-1 ATS in the past five inside the division. However, they have failed to cover the past four, and they're 2-5-1 ATS in the past eight following a straight-up loss.

In this series, the road team is 8-2-1 ATS in the past 11 meetings, and the favorite is 6-0-1 ATS in the past seven. The Rams have also covered five straight trips to Arizona, and they're 5-0-1 ATS in the past six meetings in the series. The 'under' is 11-5 in the past 16 meetings in Arizona.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Broncos will hit the road for Sunday Night Football after hitting rock-bottom on Sunday. It was a rough situation for the Broncos to be in, forcing to start a practice-squad receiver at quarterback after losing their top three signal callers. They're expected to have at least one quarterback ready for next week, although it's uncertain who.

The Chiefs will have Mahomes, and that's why they're at two-touchdown favorite to open. The Chiefs are 4-1-1 ATS in the past six against losing teams, and 9-2-1 ATS in the past 12 at home. They're also 14-5-1 ATS in the past 20 overall, although, as mentioned above, they just missing a cover in Tampa last week. In this series, the Broncos are 1-9 ATS in the past 10 meetings, and the 'over' is 3-1-1 in the past five battles at Arrowhead in this series.

Daily Newsletter - Sign Up Today!

Where to place a bet this NFL Season?

• Use our exclusive BetMGM Bonus Code VIBONUS1500 to unlock BetMGM’s welcome offer for new sportsbook users!
• Compare the latest NFL Odds from the best sportsbooks before placing a bet on this week's games.
• Check out the North Carolina Sportsbooks just before they launch legal online sports betting.

VegasInsider Staff

More from VegasInsider Staff