Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:52 PM
Hot & Not Report - Week 13
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Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under - O/U
The Thanksgiving holiday has come and gone and it might of took the great run for those highest (fade) and lowest (play on) scoring teams over their past three games, although when fading Kansas City works out on a backdoor touchdown after backing Cleveland loses on giving up a backdoor TD it's got a sick way of feeling worse than 1-1.
This week it suggests cases should be made for fading the Buffalo Bills (33.7 points per game last three) and backing the Denver Broncos (11.7/game).
Tough to make any sort of case for Denver until you have a better understanding of their QB situation, but it could become a point of how many points are too many.
Buffalo's got a Monday Night Football date as small road favorites (Game Played in Arizona) against San Francisco, the defending NFC Champs trying to make a final run at defending their crown.
A 49ers upset gives them games with Washington and Dallas up next before visiting Arizona on Boxing Day (Dec. 26). Interesting game to spend part of the week breaking down for sure.
Last week's Thanksgiving thoughts didn't bring out the best results with Detroit's greasy turkey fingers fumbling the ball away numerous times in that 1st half to be the 9th team with a better record on Thanksgiving to lose in recent years. The Steelers had an opportunity in that role before the game got moved, and aside from really getting screwed for the second time this year, moving the game isn't all bad news for the Steelers (or Ravens).
Both of them get to avoid the “Thanksgiving Curse” with the game being moved, but who knows how all of this affects these teams in the coming weeks and if the Ravens even find their way into a playoff spot when all is said and done.
At 6-4 SU (pending Wednesday's result), the Ravens and Steelers are still alive in a group of Super Bowl contenders if you want to look back at where Super Bowl participants sat after Thanksgiving week.
Over the past 10 years, 19 of the 20 teams to make the Super Bowl had four losses or fewer after Thanksgiving.
The shorthanded Ravens are going to have to find a way to be the first to beat Pittsburgh this year on Wednesday to stay in this group of 11 other teams currently.
Arizona, Tampa Bay, and Las Vegas all coughed up great opportunities to stay in that range this past Sunday, but the lone outlier of the group was that 2011 New York Giants team who were 6-5 SU at this point of the year too.
You can take this a step further to narrow the field for any future thoughts, with 11 of the 20 teams having two or fewer losses at this point. That leaves three teams with Pittsburgh, Kansas City and New Orleans being the selected three, and all three did start out the 2020 campaign with a win in Week 1 so they are all good here too.
Other teams that are just outside this range with three losses, but did start the year with a victory are Seattle, Green Bay, Tennessee and Buffalo.
Where it gets tricky for the Steelers though, is not only do they have all this adversity with the schedule now, but they are the only one of those Top 3 teams that didn't play a postseason game last season and that may be problematic.
Recommending two of the top three teams currently isn't exactly rocket science though - something I hope former Lions head coach Matt Patricia still remembers – but for those that maybe needed a slight nudge in firing on one of those three organizations, the “are who they are” post-Thanksgiving test certainly matches up with what we've seen on the field from the Steelers, Chiefs, and Saints.
You do have to wonder if the lack of that second bye week throws a wrinkle into things this year with the potential for a seed further down to ride an early upset all the way through, and all four of those three loss teams lurking just behind were playoff competitors a season ago as well.
Finding the right price and learning to stomach the weaknesses Seattle, Green Bay, Buffalo, and Tennessee currently have out there may end up being a nice portfolio to have in a month's time.
The “State Farm Super Bowl” I predicted we would see last year might have been a year too early, and with a Chiefs/Packers win conference parlay currently in the 10/1 range for this year, sticking with that thought would have to be a starting point for me right now.
Fading teams on the Money-Line after they played the New York Jets this year is 1-9 SU
Had another thing lined up and ready to go here but was bitten by the bye weeks again, so I'll save it for next week when two teams will fit the script. So went with a flipped around version of saying that nine of the previous 10 NFL teams to beat the New York Jets have gone on to win their next game as well.
It was actually on a 9-0 SU run until the Los Angeles Chargers lost in Buffalo last Sunday, yet another thing the Chargers can't seem to do right this year. Literally every other team to beat the Jets has turned it into at least a two-game winning streak now but them. It really is tough to watch.
Again, this isn't a whole lot of help this week in recommending the Miami Dolphins on the ML (-55) as a double digit home favorite vs. Cincinnati, but the Jets have a really interesting schedule going forward to keep this idea of riding the team that just played them (and likely beat them) for a second straight week.
N.Y. Jets Schedule
- Week 13 - vs. Las Vegas
- Week 14 - at Seattle
- Week 15 - at L.A. Rams
- Week 16 - vs. Cleveland
- Week 17 - at New England
Las Vegas is visiting New York this week before hosting Indianapolis next week, a two-week stretch for the Raiders where two victories could put them right back where they want to be in the AFC playoff race. The ML option on the Raiders in that Colts contest will be a reasonable price to consider.
The next opponent for the Jets would be Seattle, who visits Washington the following week, ending a three-week run where the Seahawks will be heavily favored each time. Not too applicable unless you are laying the price in some sort of ML parlay.
Who could you follow the rest of the season?
- Week 14 - Raiders vs. Colts
- Week 15 - Seahawks vs. Washington
- Week 16 - L.A. Rams at Seattle
- Week 17 - Cleveland vs. Pittsburgh
Interestingly enough though, after Seattle visits Washington, they host the Rams the following week, with LA being in that positive post-NYJ role for that game in Week 16. Could it be that Seattle gets to feel the sting from both ends of this NY Jets run in consecutive weeks? You know that Rams/Seahawks game will have playoff implications of some sort.
Finally, the only other NFL team to still have a game this year after facing the Jets will be Cleveland, who visits the Big Apple in Week 16. The Browns host Pittsburgh in Week 17 in a game that might actually have more meaning than in the past with only one bye offered in each conference, and Cleveland being wherever they may be in the Wildcard standing at the time.
Definitely some reasonable spots to consider there, and for those that are curious about the ATS record of these post-NYJ games, those teams are 6-4 ATS this number with the Chargers being the fourth defeat.
Obviously the other three came in a role Miami could find themselves in this week with that big number vs Cincinnati – win the game outright but fail to cover – but if you are looking for any addition to a weekly ML parlay, taking the team that just beat the Jets is a good place to start.
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