Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:52 AM
Over-Under Week 14 Total Predictions, Odds
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Handicapping Week 14 Totals
-- We're on to Week 14 of the NFL regular season, and knock on wood, we do not appear to have any COVID issues heading into the new week. We have the Thursday game, the regular Sunday slate and Monday night game. There are no reschedules - yet. Let's hope that's a sign of things to come.
-- The first-place New York Giants streak into their game against the Arizona Cardinals on a four-game win streak. More importantly, they have cashed the 'under' in each of the past four games, and six of the previous seven.
-- The Tennessee Titans hit the 'over' for a fourth consecutive game last week in a 41-35 home loss to the Cleveland Browns, and they lead the NFL with a 9-2-1 mark to the 'over'.
-- As far as injury news is concerned, Carolina Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey reportedly tweaked his quadriceps working out during the team's bye week, so add that to his list of injuries this season. He missed several weeks due to a high-ankle sprain, returning in Week 9. He played in that game, but suffered a sprained AC joint, missing the next three. He appeared poised to return this week, which would make a huge difference for the Carolina offense, but it appears he is a question mark yet again.
-- Lastly, remember that the Philadelphia Eagles are turning to rookie QB Jalen Hurts to make the start, sending QB Carson Wentz to the bench. Head coach Doug Pedersen is going all-in on the rook, perhaps for just one week, but maybe for the rest of the season. He offered more mobility last week in Green Bay when he came into the game.
Over-Under Line Moves
We've had a fair amount of action for several totals in Week 14, although bettors are taking more of a wait-and-see approach. We haven't had as much movement as in recent weeks, and most of the movement is driving totals down.
- Baltimore at Cleveland (MNF): 48 to 46.5
- New Orleans at Philadelphia: 45.5 to 44
- Atlanta at L.A. Chargers: 50 to 49
- Dallas at Cincinnati: 43.5 to 42.5
- Houston at Chicago: 46 to 45
- Minnesota at Tampa Bay: 52.5 to 51.5
- N.Y. Jets at Seattle: 47.5 to 46.5
- Pittsburgh at Buffalo (SNF): 47.5 to 46.5
- Denver at Carolina: 45.5 to 47
- Miami at Kansas City: 48.5 to 50
Over-Under Betting Trends
Listed below are the largest leans for Week 14 as of Thursday.
- Minnesota at Tampa Bay: Over 89%
- Dallas at Cincinnati: Over 85%
- Pittsburgh at Buffalo (SNF): Over 80%
- Green Bay at Detroit: Over 71%
- Atlanta at L.A. Chargers: Over 69%
- N.Y. Jets at Seattle: Under 98%
- Kansas City at Miami: Under 63%
- Tennessee at Jacksonville: Under 59%
Division Over-Under Notes
The 'under' went 3-2 in the five NFL Divisional battles in Week 13, and the 'under' is now tied 33-31-1 (51.5%) overall this season. We have two divisional matchups on tap for Sunday, and another on Monday.
Tennessee at Jacksonville: As mentioned above, the Titans lead the NFL with nine 'over' results to date. That includes a 33-30 win over the Jaguars in Nashville back in Week 2, a total of just 44.5. That was actually their second-lowest total of the season. The Titans have hit the 'over' in each of the past four, scoring 35, 45, 30 and 17, while allowing 41, 26, 24 and 34.
For the Jaguars, they took the Vikings to the mat at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis last weekend, falling 27-24 in overtime. With the field goal, rather than a touchdown, the 'under' (51.5) just came in. The under is 3-1 in the past four for the Jags. At home, the 'over/under' has split 3-3 so far through six home dates, hitting the 'over' in the last game at TIAA Bank Stadium in Week 12 against the Browns, falling 27-25. The Jaguars offense has scored 20 or more points in five of the previous six, and they have allowed 24 or more points in 11 consecutive outings.
Green Bay at Detroit:
The Packers have seen the over outpace the under 7-5 so far this season, and their first meeting with the Lions at Lambeau Field on Week 2 was an 'over' result. They doubled up the Lions 42-21 as the 'over' (51) easily cashed.
It's been all 'over' all the time for the Lions lately, hitting in five of the past six contests. In five home games for the Lions the 'over' is a perfect 5-0, including their only previous NFC North Divisional battle at Ford Field in Week 1 against the Bears.
The 'over' has cashed in seven of the past 10 in this series, including four of the past five in the Motor City.
Baltimore at Cleveland (MNF): (see below)
Week 13 featured four non-conference matchups and the totals were a 2-2 split.
We have five more AFC vs. NFC battles on tap for the Week 14 Sunday schedule.
Dallas at Cincinnati: The Cowboys defense looked like they were making a little bit of progress in the month of November, hitting the 'under' in four straight from Week 6 through 9, allowing just 24.0 PPG in a three-game span against Washington, Philly and Pittsburgh. In the past three they have yielded 28, 41 and 34 in the past three, all 'over' results. The 'over' is 2-1 for Dallas vs. AFC North teams this season, allowing 35.7 PPG.
QB Joe Burrow went down for the Bengals midway through Week 11's game against the Washington Football Team. In approximately 10 quarters since he has been gone, the Bengals have scored a total of 24 points, including just seven last week in Miami. Yes, the 'under' is 3-0 in the past three for Cincinnati. The 'under' is also 3-0 for Cincinnati in three games against NFC East foes in 2020, scoring 16.3 PPG while allowing 26.0 PPG.
Houston at Chicago: The Texans were driving for a win against the Colts last week, into the red zone in the final ticks of regulation. QB Deshaun Watson fumbled, though, and Houston was left with a loss. More importantly for our purposes here, the Texans miscue helped the 'under' hang on. The 'under' is 3-1 across the past four, thanks mostly due to their defense. Houston is allowing just 20.3 PPG across the past four outings. Their offense has been a bit hard to figure, scoring 20, 41, 27, 7 and 27 across the past five. The seven-point showing was their last game outdoors in Cleveland. They won't face wintry weather in Chitown, but temperatures will be around freezing with a slight breeze off Lake Michigan.
The Bears offense has been a little better over the past two games since a bye, averaging 27.5 PPG. However, the defense has been brutal, allowing 37.5 PPG, as the 'over' has hit in each outing, both divisional battles. In their two previous games against AFC South foes, the Bears have hit the 'under' in each outing.
Denver at Carolina: The Broncos put up a good fight in Kansas City last time out, falling 22-16. However, the Broncos offense continues to struggle, posting 16, 3, 20 and 12 across the past four, all 'under' results. The defense is allowing an average of 25.8 PPG during the four-game span. The 'under' is 2-1 in Denver's three games against NFC South teams in 2020. In four trips to the Eastern Time Zone, however, the 'over' has cashed three times.
As mentioned above, CMC is a question mark again for Week 14 after it appeared he might be nearing a return. He would make a big splash for this offense. Carolina hasn't been terrible lately, though, going for 27, 20, 23 and 31 over the past four, while allowing 28 or more points in three of the past four. The 'over' is 3-1 in the past four for the Panthers, and the over is 2-1 in three games vs. AFC West clubs this season.
N.Y. Jets at Seattle: The winless Jets put up quite a fight in Week 13 against the visiting Raiders, and nearly erased that goose egg from their win column. But the Jets snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, and they lost again as the 'over' hit. The 'over' is 3-1 in the previous four outings after a 4-0 'under' run from Week 5 through 8. In their only previous trip to the Pacific Time Zone, a Week 11 date against the Chargers, the Jets hit the 'over' easily.
The 'under' has been the rule for Seattle lately, allowing 17, 17, 21 and 23 across the past four outings. The offense has struggled a bit, too, going for just 12, 23, 28 and 16. The 'over' is 2-1 in the three previous games for Seattle against NFC West clubs.
Atlanta at L.A. Chargers: The Falcons offense has been up and down lately, going for 16, 43, 9 and 34 across the past four. The defense has been much better lately, however, allowing just 17.0 PPG over the previous three, all 'under' results, and the under is 7-2 across the past nine. Interim head coach Raheem Morris, a defensive specialist, has made a huge difference in terms of the team's defensive effort and late-game management.
The Chargers were blanked last week by the Chargers, and they scored just 17 in the previous game before. However, the 'over' is still 7-2 across the past nine, as the defense has yielded 27 or more points in each of the nine contests.
SNF | MNF | TNF
-- The 'over' finished 2-1 in the three primetime games in Week 13, not including the Washington Football Team-Pittsburgh Steelers rescheduled game for Monday afternoon, as technically that is included on the Sunday ledger. The 'under' has produced a 23-18 (56.1%) clip in 41 primetime games so far this season.
Sunday Night Football Notes
The Pittsburgh Steelers look to bounce back from their first loss of the season, traveling to meet the Buffalo Bills on Sunday night. The Steelers have hit the 'under' in each of the past three, and the under is 4-0-1 across the past five since their last 'over' result in Week 8 in Baltimore. Last season the Bills hit the 'under' in an NFL-high 12 games, but this season the 'over' is performing at an 8-3-1 clip for Buffalo.
Pittsburgh's defense has allowed 23, 14, 3, 10 and 19 over the past five, which is a huge reason for their under run.
The Bills have hit the 'over' in four of the past five, including each of their past two trips to State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. The 49ers relocated to Arizona due to COVID-19 restrictions in Santa Clara County, Calif. The Bills have scored 34, 27, 30 and 44 across the past four while coughing up 26.8 PPG during the span.
Monday Night Football Notes
The Baltimore Ravens-Cleveland Browns will square off at FirstEnergy Stadium. The weather was horrendous in the past three home games, but things look a little nicer at night in Cleveland. Monday's forecast is clear and cold, with temperatures around freezing, but no precipitation on tap.
The Ravens doubled up the Cowboys on Tuesday night, hitting the 'over' with a late touchdown. The 'over' has hit in each of their past three at home, but the 'under' is 3-0 in their past three games on the road, including their oft-rescheduled game at Pittsburgh in Week 12. The offense has posted 34, 14, 24 and 17 over the past four.
In the first meeting in Baltimore, the Browns posted a season-low six points in a 38-6 loss as the 'under' cashed. The Browns offense is on track lately, going for 41, 27 and 22, while the defense has yielded 35, 25 and 17. The 'over' has hit in each of the past two, the first time cashing in consecutive games for the Browns since a 4-0 'over' run from Weeks 2 through 5.
I was stuck in neutral again in Week 13, going (-$10), and overall I am a dismal (-$865) for the season. We'll look for a plus-number in Week 14 with four more wagers, trying to build that bankroll back up for the NFL postseason.
- Best Over: Over 51.5 Minnesota at Tampa Bay
- Best Under: Under 47 Denver at Carolina
- Best First-Half Total: Over 26.5 Tennessee at Jacksonville
Three-Team Total Teaser (+7, +135)
- Over 46 Tennessee at Jacksonville
- Under 62 Green Bay at Detroit
- Under 52 Arizona at N.Y. Giants
Week 13 & Overall Betting Results
Depending when and where you placed your bets, the ‘under’ went 9-6 in Week 13, and the over has a 97-93-2 (51.1%) advantage to date.
|Week 11 Total Results|