Over-Under NFL Week 15 Total Predictions, Odds

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

23 minute read

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Handicapping Week 15 Totals

-- We're on to Week 15, which means we have just three weeks remaining in the regular season. The postseason picture is starting to get a little more clarity. The good news, as opposed to other seasons, is that there is just one bye and it is in play in both conferences. So teams might not rest in the final week or two like we've seen in the past. There are seven playoff positions up for grabs in 2020, so we even have less have-nots than usual heading into the final three weekends.

-- Week 15 is also when we see our first Saturday games, with the Buffalo Bills-Denver Broncos playing at 4:30 p.m. ET, and the Carolina Panthers-Green Bay Packers playing in primetime at 8:15 p.m. ET.

-- Like the past few weeks we have some injury issues at the quarterback position. Detroit Lions QB Matthew Stafford banged up his ribs last week and might not practice heading up to Sunday's tilt in Tennessee. With nothing to play for there is no real reason to make matters worse, so QB Chase Daniel might get the starting nod.

-- San Francisco 49ers QB Nick Mullens was named as the starting signal caller, so he'll make his sixth consecutive start. However, head coach Kyle Shanahan is tired of the turnovers, and it might be a short hook for Mullens if he has any miscues. QB C.J. Beathard is waiting in the wings, as QB Jimmy Garoppolo is not quite ready yet.

-- Washington Football Team QB Alex Smith (leg) is also a question mark after leaving last week's game due to a calf injury. The good news is while his right leg is OK. That leg is the one he suffered a gruesome injury back in 2018. X-rays were negative, and it was just muscle related. Still, QB Dwayne Haskins could start, and that changes the complexion of their game dramatically.

-- Another situation that is non-QB related is in Tampa, as Buccaneers RB Ronald Jones II (finger, illness) had surgery for a fractured pinkie earlier this week. While that already made him a question mark for Sunday, he is also on the Reserve/COVID-19 list, too. The Bucs have depth, with RB Leonard Fournette expected to start, and RB LeSean McCoy also expected to pick up the slack.

Over-Under Line Moves

We've had a little bit of action for several totals in Week 15, with most of the games getting bet down slightly. The most movement has been on the New England-Miami and Buffalo-Denver games. 

Down

• New England at Miami: 43.5 to 41.5
• Cleveland at N.Y. Giants (SNF): 46 to 44.5
• Detroit at Tennessee: 52.5 to 51.5
• Houston at Indianapolis: 52 to 51
• N.Y. Jets at L.A. Rams: 44.5 to 43.5
• Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (MNF): 41.5 to 40.5
• Seattle at Washington: 45.5 to 44.5
• Tampa Bay at Atlanta: 51.5 to 50.5

Up

• Buffalo at Denver: 48 to 50
• Philadelphia at Arizona: 47.5 to 49.5
• Jacksonville at Baltimore: 46 to 47.5
• Chicago at Minnesota: 46.5 to 47

Over-Under Betting Trends

Listed below are the largest leans for Week 15 as of Thursday.

• Chicago at Minnesota: Over 94%
• Philadelphia at Arizona: Over 93%
• San Francisco at Dallas: Over 87%
• Houston at Indianapolis: Over 81%
• Tampa Bay at Atlanta: Over 64%

• Detroit at Tennessee: Under 94%
• New England at Miami: Under 92%
• Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (MNF): Under 89%
• Jacksonville at Baltimore: Under 78%
• Seattle at Washington: Under 73%

Division Over-Under Notes

The 'under' went 2-1 in the three NFL Divisional battles in Week 14, and the 'under' is now 35-32-1 (52.2%) overall this season. We have four divisional matchups on tap for Sunday, and another on Monday, as well as the Week 15 battle on Thursday.

Chicago at Minnesota: These two teams are barely breathing in the NFC playoff picture, and a loss likely means curtains for the 2020 season. So it will be interesting to see if we get a little more defense than usual. The last time these teams squared off we saw plenty of D, as the Vikings won a Monday night game in Week 10, 19-13.

The Bears have shown a little more flash on offense lately, averaging 33.0 PPG, with 30 and 36 in the past two games. They allowed just seven last time out against Houston, but prior to that they allowed 34 and 41 in the previous two. So the Bears are a difficult team to figure.

The Vikings posted 14 points last time out in Tampa, their least amount of points since a 28-11 loss in Indianapolis back in Week 2. Last week was an issue of four missed field goals by PK Dan Bailey, and the Vikings brought in some competition to perhaps light a fire in their kicking game. The Vikings have hit the 'under' in back-to-back games for the first time this season, as the 'over' was 8-3 in the first 11.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta:  The Buccaneers posted 26 last week in a win over the Vikings, and they have 26, 24, 24 and 46 across the past four outings. They have rebounded nicely from their ugly 38-3 loss against the New Orleans Saints in Week 9. The 'under' hasn't cashed in three in a row for Tampa Bay so far this season.

This is the first meeting between the Bucs and Falcons this season. They'll face each other again in Week 17 at the Ray Jay. As far as the Falcons are concerned, they have been much different under interim head coach Raheem Morris than under Dan Quinn. The 'over' opened 3-0 for Atlanta, mostly due to awful defense, but the 'under' has cashed in eight of the past 10 for Atlanta, including each of the past four. They've posted 17, 16, 43 and 9 over the past four, while allowing 20, 21, 6 and 24. If the 'under' cashes here, it would be the first time since the 2017 season. The 'over' hit in each matchup in both the 2018 and 2019 seasons in this series.

New England at Miami:  The Patriots head into this one with a 5-0 'under' run. It's been night and day for the Pats lately. They won 45-0 in Week 12, and then turned around and lost 24-3 in Week 14 against the Rams. That's a season best offensive showing, and a season worst showing all within five days. These teams met back in Week 1, with the Patriots pushing past the Dolphins 21-11 as the 'under' (41.5) connected.

The Dolphins were locked in a high-scoring affair last week, coming up just short against the Chiefs, 33-27. That 'over' snapped a 3-0 'under' run, as the Dolphins previously had 19, 20 and 13 in the prior three, while allowing just 7, 3 and 20. The 'under' is 3-1 in four games against the AFC East for Miami this season.

Houston at Indianapolis:  The last time these teams got together in Week 13 in Houston, QB Deshaun Watson had his team driving in the red zone, down 26-20. He mishandled a snap, and the Colts recovered it to salt away a road win. It was another ugly loss for the Texans. It also helped 'under' bettors hang on, and the 'under' is now 4-1 in the past five for Houston. There's not much to glean from Houston's divisional results so far, as the over/under has split 2-2.

The Colts rolled up a season-high 44 points last week in Las Vegas, and they have scored 44, 26, 26, 34 and 34 across the past five games, as the offense is on a serious roll. The 'over' is 3-1 in four games against the AFC South so far this season. Defensively, Indy is very giving, too, allowing 27, 20, 45 and 31 over the past four.

In this series, the 'under' is 4-1 in the past five meetings, and 9-2 in the past 11 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (MNF):  (see below)

Non-Conference Angles

Week 14 featured six non-conference matchups and the 'under' went 5-1.

We have four more AFC vs. NFC battles on tap for the Week 15 Sunday/Monday schedule.

 Detroit at Tennessee: The Lions offense has looks a little better lately, posting 29.0 PPG across the past two since interim head coach Darrell Bevell took over for the fired Matt Patricia. The defense isn't much better, though, allowing 41, 30 and 31 across the past three. The 'over' is 5-2 in the past seven overall for the Lions. One thing to keep an eye on before finalizing those bets, is Stafford's availability. He left the Week 14 game against the Packers later after a shot to the ribs, and he has an intercostal injury and will likely not practice at all this week. That might be Daniel takes the reins under center.

For the Titans, their offense has been on point across the past four outings. Tennessee has scored 31, 35, 45 and 30 over the past four, and the defense has allowed 10, 41, 26, 24 and 34. As such, the 'over' is 4-1 in the past five, and 9-2-1 in the past 12 games overall. The 'over' is 19-6-1 in the past 26 overall for the Titans, while going 6-1-1 in the past eight at home for Tennessee. The 'over' is also 6-1 in the past seven for the Titans agaisnt a team with a losing overall record, while going 11-4-1 in their past 16 as a favorite.

N.Y. Jets at L.A. Rams: The winless Jets hit the road for SoFi Stadium in L.A. New York's season high in points is 28, done three times, including two weeks ago against the Raiders, and four weeks ago on the road against the Chargers in this very same stadium. In fact, New York has scored 27 or more points in three of the past five, hitting the 'over' in each outing.

The Rams topped the Patriots 24-3 on Thursday night last week, extending their streak to five games or scoring 20 or more points. It was their best defensive showing of the season, and they had allowed 28, 23 and 24 across the previous three. The 'under' is 8-2 across the past 10 for L.A. In addition, the 'under' is 2-1 for the Rams against the AFC East this season.

Kansas City at New Orleans: The Chefs racked up 33 points in a six-point win in Miami last weekend, hitting the 'over' for the first time since Week 11. The Chiefs are good for 22 or more points in all 13 of their games to date, but surprising the 'under' has outpaced the 'over' 7-6 so far this season. The Chiefs will be back east of the Mississippi River for the third time in the past four weeks, and the fifth time this season. The 'under' is 3-1 in those five trips east of the Mississippi this season. 

For the Saints, they hit the 'over' in Week 14, a loss against the Eagles in Philly. It snapped a 5-0 'under' run, including a 3-0 'under' run with QB Taysom Hill under center as a starter. The Saints offense has managed just 24, 31, 21 and 21 over those four outings by Hill, and it sounds like he'll make another start this weekend, too. QB Drew Brees (ribs) is trying to get back, but the team will not put him back under center until he is 100 percent. The 'over' is 2-1 in three games against the AFC West this season.

Cleveland at N.Y. Giants (SNF): (see below)

Prime Time Games

SNF | MNF | TNF

-- The 'over' finished 2-1 in the three primetime games in Week 13, not including the Washington Football Team-Pittsburgh Steelers rescheduled game for Monday afternoon, as technically that is included on the Sunday ledger. The 'under' has produced a 23-18 (56.1%) clip in 41 primetime games so far this season. 

Sunday Night Football Notes

The Cleveland Browns-New York Giants look to improve their chances for the postseason. The Browns lost a tough 47-42 game at home on Monday night in Cleveland against the Ravens, perhaps the game of the year in the NFL. It was a wild one, as the Brown scored 41 or more points for the second consecutive weekend against an AFC playoff contender. The defense is also struggling, though, allowing 47 and 35 in the past two. Luckily for the Browns weather hasn't been an issue lately. Wintry or wet conditions in three home games in November slowed the offense to a crawl, as they scored just 6, 10 and 22 in three home dates. Defensively, they allowed just 6, 7 and 17 in those games, but they're back to scoring big points again.

The Giants were in first place after a 17-12 win in Seattle, a low-scoring affair. They scored just seven last week in a loss to the Cardinals, and the offense is averaging just 12.0 PPG in the past three. The 'under' has hit in five straight for the G-Men, and seven of the past eight overall. New York has hit the 'under' in each of their two games against AFC North teams to date, including a primetime game against the Steelers in Week 1.

Monday Night Football Notes

The Pittsburgh Steelers-Cincinnati Bengals wrap up the week against the Bengals, looking to snap a two-game losing streak. Pittsburgh has had a power outage on offense, too, averaging just 16.0 PPG in the past two games. The 'under' is 5-0-1 in the past six overall for the Steelers, allowing 26, 23, 14, 3, 10 and 19 in the six-game span. That includes a 36-10 score against the Bengals in the first meeting in Week 10, a push at most shops with a closing total of 46.

For the Bengals, their offense has been a disaster with QB Joe Burrow going down in Week 11 in the third quarter in Washington. They finished that game scoreless without Burrow in two quarters, and they have totaled just 31 points in the past 14 quarters without their starting signal caller. Cincinnati has scored 7, 7, 17, 9 and 10 in the past five outings. In their only primetime appearance this season, Cincinnati fell 35-30 in Cleveland in Week 2 in a Thursday night game, but again, that was with Burrow at the helm.

Fearless Predictions

It was another difficult week, going just (-$430), and overall I am a dismal (-$1295) for the season. We'll look for a plus-number in Week 15 with four more wagers, trying to build that bankroll back up for the NFL postseason.

• Best Over: Over 41.5 New England at Miami
• Best Under: Under 47 Chicago at Minnesota
• Best First-Half Total: Under 26 Houston at Indianapolis

• Under 50.5 N.Y. Jets at L.A. Rams
• Under 50.5 Cleveland at N.Y. Giants
• Under 47.4 Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

Week 14 & Overall Betting Results

Depending when and where you placed your bets, the ‘under’ went 10-6 in Week 14, and the over has a 107-99-2 (51.4%) advantage to date. 

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