Over-Under NFL Week 16 Total Predictions, Odds

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

9 minute read

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Handicapping Week 16 Totals

-- It's the penultimate week of the NFL regular season, and the playoff picture is becoming a lot more clear. Despite a ratcheting up of intensity, we haven't necessarily seen offenses bogging down and defenses taking over. In fact, it's been quite the opposite. We saw plenty of offense last weekend.

-- Heading into the new week, we have several injury notes which may play a role in the outcome and totals this weekend.

-- Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill (hamstring) did not practice Wednesday, and it's uncertain if that means anything for his status for Sunday's game against the Falcons. Check back Friday or Saturday when he'll have a bit more clarity.

-- Washington Football Team RB Antonio Gibson (toe) was able to practice on a limited basis Wednesday, while WR Terry McLaurin (ankle) did not participate. Those are two injuries to watch. In addition, QB Dwayne Haskins was penalized for a photograph of him at a party violating COVID-19 procedure, and he had his captaincy stripped. If QB Alex Smith (calf) is able to go, he is expected to make the start.

-- Raiders QB Derek Carr (groin) was able to take part in a full practice session Wednesday. He left last Thursday's game in the second quarter, with QB Marcus Mariota finishing up.

-- Speaking of the Chargers, WR Keenan Allen (hamstring) did not practice Wednesday. He was limited to one grab in that overtime win over the Raiders lat week.

Over-Under Line Moves

We've had plenty of action for several totals in Week 16, with a good handful of games seeing the total going down. We've seen a lot of movement on the Cleveland Browns-New York Jets game, too.

Down

• Denver at L.A. Chargers: 50 to 48.5
• Indianapolis at Pittsburgh: 46 to 44.5
• Minnesota at New Orleans (Fri.): 52.5 to 51
• Tampa Bay at Detroit (Sat.): 54 to 53

Up

• Cleveland at N.Y. Jets: 44 to 48
• Cincinnati at Houston: 45 to 46
• L.A. Rams at Seattle: 46.5 to 47.5
• Philadelphia at Dallas: 48.5 to 49.5

Over-Under Betting Trends

Listed below are the largest leans for Week 16 as of Thursday.

• Cleveland at N.Y. Jets: Over 94%
• Tennessee at Green Bay (SNF): Over 93%
• L.A. Rams at Seattle: Over 86%
• Atlanta at Kansas City: Over 82%
• Buffalo at New England (MNF): Over 73%
• Carolina at Washington: Over 71%

• Indianapolis at Pittsburgh: Under 98%
• Chicago at Jacksonville: Under 93%
• Philadelphia at Dallas: Under 78%
• Cincinnati at Houston: Under 76%
• Minnesota at New Orleans: Under 61%
• N.Y. Giants at Baltimore: Under 58%
• Denver at L.A. Chargers: Under 54%

Division Over-Under Notes

The 'over' went 4-2 in the six NFL Divisional battles in Week 15, and the 'under' is now 37-36-1 (50.7%) overall this season. We have one divisional matchup on tap for Saturday, three more on Sunday, and another on Monday.

San Francisco at Arizona (Sat. - 4:30 p.m. ET): The 49ers and Cardinals meet for the first time since Week 1, when Arizona came away with a 24-20 win in Santa Clara as the 'under' (48.5) connected. QB Jimmy Garoppolo started that day, but he remains sidelined with an injury. Joining him is QB Nick Mullens, who has an elbow injury which will keep him on the shelf the rest of the way. QB C.J. Beathard will make his first start since Oct. 28, 2018, which was also against Arizona. He was bested that day by QB Josh Rosen, who just signed to be Beathard's backup.

The 49ers check into this one with the 'under' in four of the past five as a road underdog, and 3-1-1 in their past five division games. While the Cardinals have hit the 'under' in six of the past seven against a team with a losing record, but the 'over' is 5-0 in their past five home outings.

Denver at L.A. Chargers:  The Broncos and Chargers have nothing to play for except for pride, as this is one of the few games this week with no playoff implications. The last time these teams met it was a 31-30 thriller in favor of the Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High, easily hitting the 'over' (44.5). The Broncos defense has allowed 48, 27, 22 and 31 over the past four outings, but the lack of offense has made the 'over/under' split 2-2. The Bolts hit the 'over' last week in an overtime win in Vegas, snapping a 3-0 'under' run. The offense has scored 20, 0 and 17 in the previous three outings before their 30-point outburst against the Raiders.

The Broncos have hit the 'under' in 15 of their past 21 divisional games, going 15-5-1. The under is 23-10-1 in the past 34 against AFC teams, too. For the Chargers, the 'over' has cashed in four of the past five inside the AFC West, while going 8-3 in the past 11 overall.

Philadelphia at Dallas:  The Eagles handed the keys to QB Jalen Hurts in the past two games, both starts, and the Eagles are averaging 25.0 PPG, which is more than a field goal better than their 21.6 PPG seasonal average. The first time these teams met was a 23-9 win by the Eagles over the Cowboys, but QB Ben DiNucci made the start with QB Andy Dalton on the shelf.

Dalton is back, and the Cowboys are looking like a functional offense again. They have 71 total points of offense in the past two games, and the defense has allowed 33, 7, 34, 41 and 28 over the past five. It's no surprise the 'over' is 4-1 across the past five outings for Big D.

L.A. Rams at Seattle:  The Rams and Seahawks played a defensive battle in Week 10, with Los Angeles picking up a 23-16 win at SoFi Stadium as the 'under' (55) easily connected. L.A. figures to be an angry bunch after losing to the previously winless New York Jets last week, The offense has scored 20, 24, 38, 20, 27 and 23 across the past six games, but the 'under' is 4-2 during the stretch with the defense allowing just 19.5 points per outing.

The 'over' is 6-0 in L.A.'s past six games as an underdog, while going 4-0 in the past four road games against a team with a winning home record. The 'under' is 9-2 in the past 11 overall for the Rams, however. The 'under' has connected in six in a row for the Seahawks, and five straight as a favorite. Seattle's defense has allowedj ust 15, 3, 17 and 17 across the past four games.

Buffalo at New England (MNF):  (see below)

Non-Conference Angles

Week 15 featured six non-conference matchups and the 'over/under' went 2-2.

We have four more AFC vs. NFC battles on tap for the Week 16 Sunday schedule.

 Chicago at Jacksonville: The Chicago offense has come alive over the past three games, including a 33-27 win at Minnesota to hit the 'over' (47.5) rather easily. In the past three games the Bears have posted 33, 36 and 30 on offense, and they're averaging 31.0 PPG across the past four outings, hitting the 'over' in three of those games. Interestingly enough, the under is 3-0 in Chicago's three matchups against AFC South teams, however.

For the Jaguars, they're coming off a 40-14 loss in Baltimore last week, and they have allowed 40, 31, 27, 27 and 27 across the past five. Their offense has averaged a paltry 15.2 PPG during that span, so the 'under' is still 3-2 over the past five. The 'under' is 3-0 in Jacksonville's three games against the NFC North, too.

Atlanta at Kansas City: The Falcons saw the 'over' come through last weekend against the Buccaneers, falling 31-27. That ended a 4-0 'under' run. The Falcons defense allowed 20, 21, 6 and 24 in the four-game under run, an average of 17.8 PPG. The 'under' is 2-1 in Atlanta's three games against the AFC West, including each of the past two.

As far as the Chiefs are concerned, they have averaged 32.5 PPG over the past two, hitting the 'over' in each. Surprisingly, Kansas City hasn't hit the over in three in a row this season, and the over/under is 7-7 for the Chiefs. Kansas City has scored 26 or more points in 12 of their 14 games overall, and at least least 22 points this season. The 'over' is 2-1 in the past three against the NFC South, including last week's 32-29 win in New Orleans.

N.Y. Giants at Baltimore: The Giants are limping to the finish line after showing some signs of life in November. They have scored a total of just 13 points in the past two games, while allowing 20 and 26. The 'under' has hit in each of those games, and six straight dating back to Week 8. The 'under' is also 3-0 for New York in three games against the AFC North this season.

For the Ravens, they have finally re-discovered their offensive ways after some struggles for most of the fall. Baltimore has scored 40, 47 and 34 during a three-game winning streak, and also hit the 'over' in each of the games. Defensively they have allowed 19 or fewer points in three of the past four, with that epic 47-42 win in Cleveland on Monday night in Week 14 as the lone exception to the D being back.

Tennessee at Green Bay (SNF): (see below)

Prime Time Games

SNF | MNF | TNF

-- The 'over' finished 2-1 in the three primetime games in Week 15. The 'under' has produced a 24-20 (54.5%) clip in 44 primetime games so far this season. 

Sunday Night Football Notes

The Tennessee Titans-Green Bay Packers figures to have plenty of fireworks at Lambeau Field under the lights.

Tennessee's offense dropped 46 on the Lions last week in Nashville, and they have scored 30 or more points in five straight outings, going for 46, 31, 35, 45 and 30 during the span. The 'over' is 4-1 during those five games, and 5-1 across the past six overall. The Titans have hit the 'over' in two of three against the NFC North this season, and four of the past five games on the road, too.

The Packers edged the Panthers last Saturday night in a 24-16 win at Lambeau, their third straight 'under' result. It's because the defense has stepped up, allowing 18.7 PPG during the three-game span. The 'under' is 2-1 in three games for Green Bay against the AFC South Division this season, including 2-0 in the games decided in regulation. The lone exception was their 34-31 overtime loss at Indianapolis in Week 11 which hit the 'over'.

Monday Night Football Notes

The Buffalo Bills-New England Patriots put a bow on the Week 16 schedule on Monday. It will be interesting to see how the Patriots react this week, as they are playing their first game since officially getting eliminated from the postseason chase.

The Bills, who are now wearing the AFC East Division crown, thrashed the Broncos in Denver last Saturday for a 48-19 win, notching a season high in points. It's the sixth straight game Buffalo has scored 26 or more points, with the 'over' going 5-2 in the past seven overall. The 'over' is also 3-1 in the first four games inside the division for Buffalo, including their Week 8 home win over the Patriots, 24-21, as the 'over' (41) just came through.

The Patriots are on a 6-0 'under' run, as they have had a brownout on defense in the past two. They have a total of just 15 points in the previous two outings, both losses, and the defense has been much better, too. The Pats have allowed 22, 24, 0, 17, 27 and 17 over the six-game under streak.

Fearless Predictions

It was another week stuck in neutral, but at least it wasn't a negative one. I ended up just (+$15), and overall I am a dismal (-$1280) for the season. We'll look for a plus-number in Week 16 with four more wagers, trying to build that bankroll back up for the NFL postseason.

• Best Over: Over 56 Tennessee at Green Bay
• Best Under: Under 49 San Francisco at Arizona
• Best First-Half Total: Under 25 San Francisco at Arizona

• Over 40.5 Cleveland at N.Y. Jets
• Under 54 Chicago at Jacksonville
• Under 52 N.Y. Giants at Baltimore

Week 15 & Overall Betting Results

Depending when and where you placed your bets, the ‘over’ went 10-6 in Week 15, and the over has a 117-105-2 (52.7%) advantage to date. 

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VegasInsider Staff

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