AFC Wild Card Cheat Sheet, Odds, Trends

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

12 minute read

The road to the AFC Championship will begin next weekend in the Wild Card Round as six teams will look to advance to the NFL Divisional Playoff Round.

The Kansas City Chiefs will have the first weekend off as the defending Super Bowl Champions earned the No. 1 seed in the conference.

Seeds two through four are the division winners while five, six and seven are the Wild Card teams.

AFC Playoff Bracket and Matchups

• 1 Seed - Kansas City Chiefs (First Round Bye)
• 2 Buffalo Bills vs. 7 Indianapolis Colts
• 3 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. 6 Cleveland Browns
• 4 Tennessee Titans vs. 5 Baltimore Ravens

Odds to Win AFC Championship

• Kansas City Chiefs -120
• Buffalo Bills +350
• Baltimore Ravens +650
• Pittsburgh Steelers +1000
• Tennessee Titans +1300
• Indianapolis Colts +1500
• Cleveland Browns +1800

Odds per (Subject to Change)

Buffalo Bills vs. Indianapolis Colts

• Date: Saturday January 9
• Venue: Bills Stadium
• Location: Orchard Park, New York
• TV-Time: CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET

Opening Line: Bills -6.5, Total 52.5

Indianapolis Road Record: 5-3 SU, 4-3 ATS, 6-2 O/U
Buffalo Home Record: 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS, 5-3 O/U

Head-to-Head

Handicapping current form and this year’s production will be a necessity between these teams since they don’t have much recent history. The Colts defeated the Bills 37-5 in the 2018 regular season, when Andrew Luck was the starting quarterback for Indianapolis. The pair also met in 2017 and Buffalo captured a 13-7 home win.

The home team has won six straight in this series, dating back to 2006. Total bettors should make a note that the ‘under’ has gone 5-1 during this span.

Playoff Notes

The Bills have made the playoffs for the third time in the last four seasons but the franchise hasn’t won a playoff game since 1995. In the most recent games, Buffalo was competitive but it fell to Houston 22-19 last season and Jacksonville 10-3 in 2018. The ‘under’ cashed easily in both of those games.

After missing the postseason last season due to the abrupt retirement of the aforementioned Luck, Indy is back in the dance. The one trend to keep in mind with the Colts focuses on the total as the team is on a 5-0 run to the ‘under.’

The new QB in Indianapolis is Philip Rivers, who owns a 5-6 all-time record in the postseason during his time with the Chargers. Of those five wins, three did come on the road and make a note of this. Rivers was a perfect 4-0 in Wild Card games and his last two wins were outside of California.

Tennessee vs. Baltimore

• Date: Sunday, January 10
• Venue: Nissan Stadium,
• Location: Nashville, Tennessee
• TV-Time: ESPN, 1:00 p.m. ET

Opening Line: Ravens -4, Total 54.5

Baltimore Road Record: 6-2 SU, 5-2-1 ATS, 3-5 O/U
Tennessee Home Record: 5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS, 6-1-1 O/U

Head-to-Head

The 4-5 matchup in the AFC will feature a newly heated rivalry as the Titans and Ravens square off. In last year’s Divisional Playoff round, Tennessee humbled Baltimore 28-12 as a 10-point road underdog.

Fast forward to this season and the Titans captured another road win in Maryland over the Ravens, a 30-24 overtime victory in Week 11. Tennessee was a six-point underdog in this contest.

The visitor has won the past three meetings in this series, which could bode well for Baltimore if you believe the trend will continue.

Playoff Notes

This will be a rare home playoff game for the Titans, the last occurrence coming in the 2008 playoffs and coincidentally Tennessee dropped a 13-10 decision to Baltimore in the Divisional round.

The Titans have gone 3-2 both SU and ATS in their last five playoff games, all taking place on the road. The ‘under’ has gone 3-2 as well and defense has been a major catalyst for Tennessee in those games. In the losses, the Titans allowed 35 PPG while just 15.3 PPG in the wins. This year’s defensive squad for Tennessee would need to improve quickly if it wants to get in the two-touchdown neighborhood.

Baltimore has yet to win a playoff game with QB Lamar Jackson under center, going 0-2 the last two years and both games took place at home. The Ravens were held to 12 and 17 points in the setbacks.

Playing on the road in the postseason has proven to be better for head coach John Harbaugh and Baltimore have gone 8-5 in playoff games away from home, which includes a Super Bowl win in 2013. Digging deeper, Baltimore is 4-0 in Wild Card games on the road under Harbaugh and the offense has averaged 30 PPG.

Pittsburgh vs. Cleveland

• Date: Saturday January 9 or Sunday, January 10
• Venue: Heinz Field
• Location: Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
• TV-Time: NBC, 8:15 p.m. ET

Opening Line: Steelers -3.5, Total 47

Cleveland Road Record: 5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS, 4-4 O/U
Pittsburgh Home Record: 7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS, 5-3 O/U

Head-to-Head

Quick rematch game here as Cleveland (-10) defeated a short-handed Pittsburgh squad 24-22 this past Sunday to clinch a playoff berth. In the first regular season meeting in Week 6, the Steelers blasted the Browns 38-7 as three-point home favorites.

Including those results, the home team has gone 6-0-1 in the last seven encounters between the two teams. The ‘under’ is on a 3-1 run over the last two regular seasons.

Playoff Notes

The Steelers haven’t been in the playoffs since 2017 when they dropped a 45-42 home decision to the Jaguars. Including that loss, Pittsburgh is just 1-2 in its last three home playoff games. However, the Steelers have gone 2-0 in their last two Wild Card matchups and the defense has only surrendered 15 PPG which has led to an easy pair of ‘under’ tickets.

Not much playoff history for Cleveland, who hasn’t participated in the postseason since 2003. Sure enough, their last playoff game came against Pittsburgh and it was a wild one as the Steelers captured a 36-33 shootout victory over the Browns at home. For those who forget, QB Tommy Maddox outdueled his counterpart Kelly Holcomb.

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