Overreactions abound throughout the NFL Week 2 card with results from Week 1 still fresh in everyone’s mind and the public is betting as if those results are the gateway to winning this week.
The favorites went 3-13 ATS last week helping the sportsbooks to a large first-week win. Nine of the underdogs won outright. The average Joe has to regroup while sharps and the sportsbooks think they have a good read on their NFL ratings.
Of the 15 games we have between Sunday and Monday, three of them are double-digit favorites, seven are favorites of -6 or higher, and seven of them are hovering around 3, either 2.5, 3, or 3.5. The lone game not represented there is the Chiefs going from -3.5 to -4 at Baltimore for the Sunday Night Football game.
Station Casinos sportsbook director Jason McCormick said his 18 books across the local areas of Las Vegas have seen the most public action on the Rams, Cardinals, and Saints.
South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews gave out the same three teams. This is a combination of ticket counts and parlay money.
The public always seems to derive at the same teams based on what they saw last. After being jilted by their forever loves last week when the Bills, Chiefs, and Packers didn’t cover, they’ve found new loves.
We all want to win and win big which means the most impressive offenses usually get the public attention the next week and it’s amplified after the first week.
The Saints beat the Packers 38-3, the Cardinals won 38-13 at Tennessee, and the Rams won an isolated Sunday night game impressively, 34-14 against the Bears. That’s it, the psychological profile of the average Joe NFL bettor.
What about the popular regulars like the Chiefs and Bills?
“The public is on the Chiefs and Bills, just not as much as those three, but close,” said McCormick.
The public hates the Ravens this week more than the Chiefs so the Chiefs are still in even though they didn’t cover, but did come back to win at home against the Browns last week.
So what about the Packers this week after the Saints exposed Aaron Rodgers for still being in vacation mode?
No one jumped on the Monday night number where the Las Vegas SuperBook opened the Packers -10.5 and are -11 on Friday. Normally always a Packers supporter, I think we’ll see split sentiment from the public finding reason to take the Lions plus-double-digits.
McCormick says the sharpest play they’ve had this week is on the Eagles, Panthers, and Vikings, all three who are facing opponents coming off impressive wins.
The Saints are -3 -120 at the Panthers, the 49ers are -3 EVEN, and the Cardinals are -3.5 against the visiting Vikings
Andrews at the South Point also has sharp play on the Colts who are getting +3.5 from the visiting Rams.
So you can see what’s going on in Week 2. The sharps and public are severely divided on several games.
The Bills have been bet up from -3 at the Westgate to -3 -120 for their game at Miami. Miami comes off a 17-16 win at New England, the Bills just got upset at home after holding the Steelers to no points in the first half. Miami is content, Buffalo is hungry, embarrassed, motivated, and maybe even desperate for a win. Circa Sports has the Bills -3.5 -105 and the South Point is -3.5, flat, as they are with all their football spreads.
The Texans come off an impressive win as a home dog against the Jaguars, 37-21, and the sportsbooks are still making all the Browns fans lay -13 as the Texans visit.
The Bengals have been bet at +3 at Chicago down to +2.5. One team, the Bengals, looked good last week with a thrilling overtime win against the Vikings while the Bears stuck with Andy Dalton and got killed at Los Angeles. As of Friday, no word if Dalton or rookie Justin Fields will start.
How is it that everyone is so smart with the Bears QB decision but head coach Matt Nagy knows better? Is he watching different game film of Dalton from the past two seasons? No arm, can’t run, and can’t make quick decisions is a bad trio for any QB. Dalton has them all, but he’s a veteran so that helps him better the team.
The NFL is a now league and Nagy appears to be ready to sink the ship just to show he’s in charge and knows better. Bigger and better battles to fight than make the stand for Andy Dalton. First coach to be fired?
The big win by the Raiders means nothing this week at Pittsburgh except betting against the team that won an emotional game Monday night has a short week and plays Sunday at a 10 am PT start time. Short week off an emotional high. Steelers are -6 and -6.5 everywhere with the majority of bet tickets written on them.
The Broncos are getting sent flowers again by the public. Last week’s 27-13 win at the Giants impressed many, especially with QB Teddy Bridgewater converting third downs routinely. Everything fell into place. The Broncos have dropped from -6.5 to -6 at Jacksonville even though hardly anyone is taking the Jaguars.
One of the biggest moves of the week is the Patriots going from -3.5 to -6 for their game at the Jets. Bill Belichick off a loss doesn’t sound as scary a prospect for the opponent without Tom Brady as it did in the old days.
The Cardinals have dropped from 4-point home favorites to -3.5 against the Vikings. The main thing I worry about with the Cards is head coach Kliff Kingsbury being so tolerant in his team making the same dumb penalties over and over. There are no repercussions. It will continue and I'll bet they lose at least four games this season because of it happening at crucial moments.
Perhaps the most interesting game of Sunday is the Cowboys at Chargers which has been an evenly bet game although the Chargers went from -3 to -3.5 EVEN at the Superbook. The SuperBook took a sharp wager on the Chargers to push them off 3.
Stay the course my friends in the public. The books owe you one, all the best.
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