Betting Recap – Week 2

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

17 minute read

Overall Notes

The largest underdogs to win straight up

• Titans +6.5 (ML +235) at Seahawks, 33-30 (OT)
• Raiders +5.5 (ML +200) at Steelers, 26-17
• Ravens +4 (ML +170) vs. Chiefs, 36-35
• Bengals +3 (ML +145) at Chargers, 20-17

The largest favorites to cover

• Buccaneers (-13) vs. Falcons, 48-25
• Broncos (-6) at Jaguars, 23-13
• Patriots (-5.5) at Jets, 25-6
• Bills (-3.5) at Dolphins, 35-0

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Sunday Night Football game was everything as advertised. We had a great shootout between the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens (+4, ML +170) at M&T Bank Stadium in Charm City. QB Patrick Mahomes got the visitors off to a great start, tossing three touchdowns in the first three quarters, and the visitors led 35-24 heading to the final 15 minutes. The OVER (53.5) was already in the bag, so total bettors might have shut things off early. Hopefully not, as they missed an exciting finish.

If you were holding a Chiefs ticket, money line or spread, it was not quite as exciting. QB Lamar Jackson rallied the Ravens for 12 points in the final quarter, while the defense allowed nothing to the Chiefs, and Baltimore came back for the 36-35 win.

The Chiefs were driving inside of two minutes in Ravens territory, but RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire coughed up the football, a terrible time for his first ever lost fumble in the NFL. The Chiefs had all three timeouts left, and forced a fourth down, but Jackson converted the short-yardage situation to hold on.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

Backers of the Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) looked like they might be in pretty decent shape, as QB Russell Wilson hit WR Freddie Swain on a 68-yard pass and catch for score, making it 30-16 with 13:06 to go. The good feelings lasted all of 49 seconds, as RB Derrick Henry ripped off a 60-yard touchdown run with 12:17 to pare the lead to 30-23.

That man struck again with just 29 ticks left on the clock in regulation, tying the game at 30-30. The game ended up going to overtime.

Seattle blew the 14-point lead, and then the defense blew the game, as the Titans drove down for the 36-yard field goal from PK Randy Bullock. The Seahawks were 52-0 when holding a lead of 15 or more points at home, but the Titans fixed that, erasing a 24-9 lead at the half.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board in Week 2 was the Thursday night tilt between the New York Giants-Washington Football Team (41). Things started off slow enough, as New York led 7-0 after 15 minutes. But Washington rallied to take a 14-10 lead at halftime. Things were on pace for OVER bettors, and they got even better. The teams combined for 35 points in the final 30 minutes, and the OVER was never in question.

The lowest total on the board for Sunday was the AFC East battle between the New England Patriots-New York Jets (43), and UNDER bettors cashed with the 25-6 win by the road team. The next lowest total, (44.5), also cashed as the Chicago Bears edged the Cincinnati Bengals 20-17 in a game which saw QB Andy Dalton exit early with an injury.

On the flip side, the late-afternoon window saw the Minnesota Vikings-Arizona Cardinals (50.5), Atlanta Falcons-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (51.5), Titans-Seahawks (54 - see above) and Dallas Cowboys-Los Angeles Chargers (55) games with totals all over 50. All but the Boys-Bolts game delivered high offensive numbers, as the Vikes-Cards had 47 points on the board by halftime, and the OVER was in the bag for the Falcons-Bucs by the end of three. The Cowboys and Chargers surprised with a defensive battle, although it did come down to a last-second field to determine a winner, but the UNDER was never in doubt there.

As far as primetime games, the OVER is a perfect 5-for-5 so far this season after two more high-scoring affairs Thursday and Sunday nights. The Monday night game between the Detroit Lions-Green Bay Packers (48.5) is also expected to see some big totals. 

For the regular season the OVER is perfect 5-0 (100.0%) across 5 primetime games, with the MNF game pending. In 2020, the UNDER was 28-19-1 (59.5%) in 48 primetime contests. In 2019, the UNDER went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 3

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Colts (0-2) and Titans (1-1) square off in the Music City in an important AFC South battle. The Titans are coming off a thrilling road win in Seattle.

Indianapolis has posted a 2-6 ATS mark in the past eight games inside the AFC South, but they are a solid 5-1 ATS in the past six games on the road. Tennessee has managed just a 1-4 ATS mark across the past five at Nissan Stadium. They're also just 5-14 ATS across the past 19 meetings with the Colts, including 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings in Nashville. The road team has also cashed in five straight meetings, with the OVER going 5-1 in the past six battles in Tennessee.

We'll be keeping an eye on QB Carson Wentz, who (surprise!) left Sunday's game with an injury.

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Chargers (1-1) and Chiefs (1-1) will be battling to stay out of the basement in the AFC West, as both the Broncos (2-0) and Raiders (2-0) are unbeaten through two games. Kansas City nearly joined them at the top, but fell late in Baltimore.

The Bolts have cashed in five of the past six games overall, and they're a solid 7-3-1 ATS in the past 11 games on the road. The Chiefs have managed to go just 1-5-1 ATS in the previous seven games inside the division, and they're 2-10 ATS in the past 12 as a favorite, including the SNF loss in Balto.

In this series, the road team is a solid 12-3-1 ATS in the past 16 meetings, and the Chargers are 4-1-1 ATS in the past six visits to Arrowhead, too.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Bengals (1-1) and Steelers (1-1) square off, and it usually doesn't go well for Cinti. They're just 1-4 ATS in the past five trips to the Steel City, and 8-21-1 ATS in the past 30 meetings with the Steelers.

As far as the total, the UNDER is 4-1-1 in the past six meetings between these AFC North rivals, and 5-1-1 in the past seven battles at Heinz Field.

The UNDER is also 3-1-1 in Cincinnati's past five on the road, and 13-4-2 in the past 19 as a road underdog. Pittsburgh, who lost WR Diontae Johnson on the final play of their loss to the Raiders, might need to make adjustments on offense. The UNDER is 4-1-1 in the past six for the Steelers as a home favorite, and 6-2-1 in the past nine overall as a fave.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Eagles (1-1) and Cowboys (1-1) wrap up the Week 3 schedule on MNF.

Philly has cashed in just one of the past seven games on the road, although they did win and cover in Atlanta in Week 1 as the UNDER connected. The Eagles are just 1-4 ATS in the past five trips to Jerry World, and 2-5 ATS in the past seven meetings overall. The favorite has hit in eight of the past 11 in this series, with the home team a perfect 5-for-5 against the number in the past five battles.

The Cowboys are just 1-7 ATS in the past eight as a favorite, and 1-5 ATS in the past six inside the division. They're also a dismal 5-11 ATS in the past 16 appearances on Monday night.

As far as the total, the UNDER is 4-0 in the past four MNF games for Philly.

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