Betting Recap – Week 4

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

18 minute read

Overall Notes

The largest underdogs to win straight up

• Giants +7 (ML +280) at Saints, 27-21 (OT)
• Jets +5.5 (ML +210) vs. Titans, 27-24
• Cardinals +4 (ML +175) at Rams, 37-20

The largest favorites to cover

• Bills (-18) vs. Texans, 40-0
• Chiefs (-7) at Eagles, 42-30
• Packers (-6) vs. Steelers, 27-17

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

If you were holding a money line ticket for the Atlanta Falcons (+2, ML +115), or if you took the points, it was a rough finish in Week 4 against the Washington Football Team. 

It was a seesaw affair in the second and third quarters, before Atlanta surged to a 30-22 lead early in the fourth quarter. Washington cut the lead to 30-28 on a desperation sling into the end zone from QB Taylor Heinicke to WR Terry McLaurin from 17 yards out. The two-point conversion was missed, however. The worst was yet to come.

With left than a minute to go, WFT was driving for what appeared to be a game-winning field goal try. A 31-30 win would still have meant most side bettors for the Falcons would be able to cash winning tickets. However, RB J.D. McKissic shook free in the flat, rumbled 30 yards before diving for the end zone pylon. Initially, the play was called no score, but after a conference by the officials, and subsequent instant replay, the touchdown was signaled. That made it 34-30, and now WFT was covering. QB Matt Ryan, who tossed four touchdowns, had one last Hail Mary into the end zone with zeroes on the clock, but the pass was knocked down. Tough loss for side and money line bettors of Atlanta.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The much ballyhooed return of Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Tom Brady to Foxboro turned out to be a really good football game. Well, it was good if you are a Tampa fan and/or you weren't holding a New England Patriots (+7, ML +260) money line ticket.

The OVER 49 was never a possibility, as the intermittment rain in Foxboro ended up keeping the scores down. In fact, we had just three points on the board, 13 total points at half and a total of 20 points through the first 45 minutes.

Things picked up a little bit in the fourth quarter, with the teams exchanging the lead. The Bucs led 13-7 heading to the fourth quarter, but a QB Mac Jones to TE Jonnu Smith touchdown strike gave the home side the lead on the first play of the fourth quarter.

After an early missed field goal on the slippery turf, PK Ryan Succop knocked a 27-yard field through with 7:58 to go to take a 16-14 lead. Patriots PK Nick Folk helped the home side back to the lead, going up 17-16 with 4:34 to go.

But you knew how this one was going to end in Brady's return home.

Jones, who was three years, 25 days old when Brady made his first NFL start against the Indianapolis Colts Sept. 30, 2001, put up a valiant effort. But Brady led the Bucs to the go-ahead 48-yard field goal with 1:57 to go, as Tampa re-took a 19-17 lead.

Jones helped the Patriots get within field-goal range, but Folk hit the left upright at the buzzer on a 56-yard field goal attempt as Brady and the Bucs escaped. If you had a New England ML ticket, condolensces.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board in Week 4 was in the Detroit Lions-Chicago Bears (41.5) game, and we had a total of seven points each in the first, second and fourth quarters. The Bears ended up with a 24-14 win, but the UNDER ended up holding on.

The second-lowest total on the board was the Indianapolis Colts-Miami Dolphins (42), and we had just 10 points on the board at halftime. After three quarters, the Colts lead 17-3, so UNDER bettors looked safe. But we had 24 total points in the final 15 minutes, including a WR DeVante Parker touchdown with 4:24 to go, to inch the OVER across the finish line.

The highest total on the board was a tie. The Kansas City Chiefs-Philadelphia Eagles and Arizona Cardinals-Los Angeles Rams (54) games each ended up going over. The Chiefs saw QB Patrick Mahomes tossed five touchdowns, including three to WR Tyreek Hill, while QB Jalen Hurts flirted with 400 yards passing.

In the NFC West showdown, the Cardinals opened a 34-13 lead. That's how it looked like it would end, with no points in the first 11:22 of the fourth. However, PK Matt Prater booted a 23-yard field goal with 3:38 to make it 37-13. It was still UNDER, however, before a late touchdown from QB Matthew Stafford to WR Robert Woods with 1:14 to go, pushing the total OVER.

As far as primetime games, the Jacksonville Jaguars-Cincinnati Bengals (46) just ended up going UNDER, with the home side winning 24-21. The total did spend some time at 45 during the week, so it's possible at some shops it was a PUSH, but we'll officially call it UNDER since the close was 46. And the Bucs-Pats (49) game was an easy UNDER in the rain, making the UNDER 2-0 in primetime games heading into Monday's AFC showdown between the Las Vegas Raiders-Los Angeles Chargers (51.5). That's now 8-3 (72.7%) through 11 primetime games, with the Monday night battle still pending. In 2020, the UNDER was 28-19-1 (59.5%) in 48 primetime contests. In 2019, the UNDER went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 5

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Rams (3-1) suffered their first loss of the season at home against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 4, and now they have the quick turnaround and another NFC West Division game.

The Seahawks (2-2) snapped a two-game skid with a gutsy 28-21 road win against the San Francisco 49ers. It helped that QB Jimmy Garoppolo (calf) left the game and is expected to miss time with a calf injury.

The Rams are 10-4-1 ATS in the past 15 against divisional foes, while the Seahawks are 3-7 ATS in their past 10 inside the NFC West. As far as the total, the UNDER is 5-2 in the past seven inside the division, while the UNDER is 5-2 in the past seven appearances on Thursday for Seattle.

L.A. has cashed in four of the past five meetings in this series, with the OVER hitting in four of the past five battles in Seattle.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Titans (2-2) were without WRs A.J. Brown and Julio Jones due to injuries, and that certainly didn't help in their road loss against the New York Jets in Week 4 in overtime.

The Titans looked to bounce back in Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4), facing a Jags team which has had a couple of days to rebound after a loss Thursday in Cincinnati. Of course, the Jags have some distractions with head coach Urban Meyer appearing on social media in an unsavory manner.

Tennessee fell to 1-4 ATS in the past five as a road favorite. Jacksonville is 5-2 ATS in the past seven inside the division, although they're 2-5 ATS in the past seven at home.

The OVER is 6-1 in the past seven for the Titans inside the AFC South, although the UNDER is 9-2 in the past 11 meetings in Jacksonville. The Titans have covered six of the past eight against the Jags.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Lions (0-4) hit the road looking for their first victory of the season. The Vikings (1-3) are looking to rebound from a 14-7 loss against the Cleveland Browns.

Detroit has covered just four of the past 13 games on the road, while the Vikings have failed to cover seven in a row dating back to last seasn. They're also 0-5 ATS in the past five as a favorite, and 0-4 ATS in the past four at home.

Looking to the total, the OVER is 5-1 in the past six inside the division for the Lions, while going 6-1 in the past seven vs. NFC North teams for the Vikings.

Minnesota has dominated the series, especially against the number, going 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings, and 10-4-2 ATS in the past 16 battles in the Twin Cities. The UNDER is 7-1 in the past eight meetings in Minneapolis, too.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)

The Giants (1-3) earned their first win of the season in an overtime road win in New Orleans, while the Cowboys (3-1) won its third consecutive game, while grabbing a fourth straight cover in as many tries. The OVER is 3-1 in four games for the 'Boys.

New York has covered four straight inside the NFC East, while going 20-7 ATS in the past 27 on the road, including Week 4. The Giants are also 21-6 ATS in the past 27 as a road underdog.

Dallas is 1-5 ATS in the past six inside the division, while going 2-7 ATS in the past nine as a favorite.

The Giants have managed to cover just twice in the past eight meetings overall in this series, with the OVER 4-1 in the past five meetings, and 9-3 in the past 12 battles in Arlington.

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