Betting Recap – Week 5

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

19 minute read

Overall Notes

The largest underdogs to win straight up

• Bears +5.5 (ML +200) at Raiders, 20-9
• Bills +3 (ML +125) at Chiefs, 38-20
• Eagles +2.5 (ML +125) at Panthers, 21-18

The largest favorites to cover

• Buccaneers (-11) vs. Dolphins, 45-17
• Cowboys (-7.5) vs. Giants, 44-20
• Cardinals (-6) vs. 49ers, 17-10
• Titans (-4) at Jaguars, 37-19

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

If you had a Cleveland Browns (+2.5, ML +120) ticket, with the the points or on the money line, it was a stressful afternoon in Week 5 on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers.

There were A LOT of wide open receivers on both sides, as each defense looked like it was playing two or three men short. This was an offensive explosion which saw the Browns fire out to a 27-13 lead early in the third quarter, thanks to a RB Nick Chubb 52-yard scoring scamper.

The Chargers responded with two straight scores, including a 42-yard pass from QB Justin Herbert to a wide-open WR Mike Williams, making it 28-27. Just 42 seconds later, QB Baker Mayfield responded with a 71-yard scoring strike to TE David Njoku to re-take the lead, 35-28. Njoku looked around in the flat, like "am I really this open?", before galloping for a career-long play. After RB Austin Ekeler answered, RB Kareem Hunt scored with 4:45 to go, making it 42-35.

With 3:15 to go, Herbert hit Ekeler on a 19-yard scoring play, but PK Tristan Vizcaino missed the extra point, as the Browns maintained a 42-41 lead. Money line bettors were ecstatic, as Cleveland still held the lead. But they did nothing with the ball next time out, and the Chargers quickly moved the ball back down the field.

Ekeler was trying to position the ball for a field goal. He slid short of the goal line for a first down, and on a first and goal, he ran slowly to the middle of the pack trying to run some clock. The Browns actually grabbed him, pulling him into the end zone for the score, making it 47-42 in favor of the Chargers. While Browns money line bettors didn't like that, they wouldn't have had a chance with the Chargers in place for a chip shot field goal. The Browns moved to midfield before a heave to the end zone with zeroes on the clock, and the Hail Mary fell flat. Great game if you like Madden, as this was like a video game, or if you are a Chargers fan, a Chargers money line bettor or you were laying the points with the favorite.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The Detroit Lions (+10, ML +340) were catching 10 points in an NFC North Division battle on the road against the Minnesota Vikings. They easily covered, but anybody holding a money line ticket was forced to swallow a bitter pill.

The Vikings were leading 16-6 with 3:17 to go, and PK Greg Joseph misfired on a 49-yard field goal to make it 19-6. Vikings side bettors were likely cursing the kicker, as that would have been the first time the home side was covering all day. It got worse.

Vikings RB Alexander Mattison coughed up the ball with the team leading 16-9, giving the Lions the ball back in favorable field position. The Lions were out of timeouts, and just one first down would have ended the game.

Lions RB D'Andre Swift gashed the Vikings for a 7-yard touchdown run to pull the visitors within 16-15. Head coach Dan Campbell elected to go for two, and go for the win. And QB Jared Goff hooked up with WR KhaDarel Hodge in the back of the end zone for a 17-16 led with just 37 seconds left. It looked like Detroit was going to pull off the stunning comeback.

But QB Kirk Cousins led the Vikings down into field goal range, and Joseph atoned for a 54-yard game-winning field goal to sink the Lions - and money line bettors.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board in Week 5 was 39.5, the closing total for both the Denver Broncos-Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots-Houston Texans games.

If you bet the OVER in either of those games, congrats. We had 23 points on the board by halftime in the Denver-Pittsburgh game, and 24 points on the board at half for the New England-Houston game. Both games were in good shape for the OVER most of the day, and double-digit total points in the fourth quarter inches each game across the finish line.

The next lowest total was in the New Orleans Saints-Washington Football Team (43.5) game, and that also followed the same recipe for the OVER. We had 33 total points on the board at halftime. After just one field goal in the third, OVER bettors were feeling as confidence, but a total of 19 points in the final 15 minutes helped this one hit rather easily.

On the flip side, the Buffalo Bills-Kansas City Chiefs (57) game had the highest total on the board for the Sunday Night Football battle. It didn't disappoint, as we saw Buffalo roll to a 24-13 lead at the break before a thunderstorm moved into the area, causing a lightning delay at halftime.

The teams had an hour break, and things weren't quite as crisp in the second half. We had a total of just 21 points on the board in the final 30 minutes, but that was good enough to give OVER bettors just enough points. The Bills have now scored 35 or more points in four consecutive games, and the OVER is 2-1 in the previous three.

As far as primetime games, the Los Angeles Rams-Seattle Seahawks (53.5) on Thursday night saw a scoreless first quarter, and a total of just 10 points on the board at halftime. Seattle also lost QB Russell Wilson to a broken finger, and whenever you see QB Geno Smith in the game, and you're holding an OVER ticket, you can't feel very good. And, as mentioned above, the Bills-Chiefs primetime game went OVER - barely. So that's 1-1 with the Monday Night Football game between the Indianapolis Colts-Baltimore Ravens (46) pending. That's now 9-5 (64.3%) through 14 primetime games. In 2020, the UNDER was 28-19-1 (59.5%) in 48 primetime contests. In 2019, the UNDER went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 6

Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET)

The Dolphins (1-4) and Jaguars (0-5) do battle at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London in Week 6. The stadium just hosted the New York Jets and Atlanta Falcons in Week 5, and Atlanta won 27-20 as the OVER (45.5) just inched across the line. The first two games at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in 2019 ended up hitting the OVER, too, making the OVER a perfect 3-0 all-time at that venue.

This will be Miami's first game overseas since they were blanked 20-0 at Wembley Stadium in London on Sept. 24, 2017. The Dolphins have hit the UNDER in three of four International Series games, averaging 11.5 PPG in those outings.

The Jaguars were dropped 26-3 on Nov. 3, 2019 as the UNDER connected at Wembley, and the UNDER is 2-0 in Jacksonville's past two trips overseas.

Jacksonville has hit the UNDER is three of the past four games, and they're 1-4 ATS so far this season. Miami is 1-3 ATS in the past four games overall, hitting the OVER in each of the past three.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Packers (4-1) and Bears (3-2) square off in a key NFC North Division battle at Soldier Field. With the Bears buying property in Arlington Heights, it might be one of the last few meetings between these historic rivals on the shores of Lake Michigan.

Green Bay has dominated this series, especially against the number, in recent seasons. The Packers are 20-7 ATS in the past 27 meetings, and 17-5 ATS in the past 22 trips to the Windy City. The OVER is also 6-2 in the past eight meetings in Chitown.

The Packers enter on a 4-0 ATS run, scoring 25 or more points in four straight. The UNDER has edged the OVER 3-2 so far. Meanwhile, the Bears grinded out a 20-9 win in Las Vegas, and they're now 3-1 SU/ATS across the past four. The UNDER has cashed in four in a row for Chicago.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Texans (1-4) hit the road to meet the Colts (1-3), who are playing on a short week after going Monday night in Baltimore.

Houston is averaging just 10.3 PPG across the past three outings. While they have won just once in five outings, they have managed to cover three of five outings, including their only outright win and cover in the division.

The Colts lost three straight to start the season, but they won 27-17 in Miami, heading to Baltimore in Week 5 on a high note. Indianapolis has hit the OVER in the two games they have covered, while the UNDER has cashed in the two games with non-covers.

The Texans are 1-5 ATS in the past six battles against the Colts, while the UNDER is 5-1 in the past six meetings, and 10-2 in the past 12 battles in Indy.

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)

The Raiders (3-2) were surprised at home by the Bears at Allegiant Stadium, 20-9, while the Broncos (3-2) were dumped by the Steelers on the road, 27-19.

For Denver, the only surprise in Week 5 was the OVER result, it's first after four consecutive UNDER results. After opening 3-0 SU/ATS, the Broncos are 0-2 SU/ATS in the past two.

The Raiders are in a similar boat, opening 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS, before going 0-2 SU/ATS across the past two outings. They're averaging just 11.5 PPG in the previous two games, while allowing 24.0 PPG. The UNDER has cashed in each game, and three of the past four.

The Raiders are 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings, with the home team 8-2 ATS across the past 10 in this series. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the previous six outings, too. The UNDER has dominated, going 8-1 in the past nine meetings, including 5-1 in the past six in the Mile High City.

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