Joe Public is coming strong in NFL Week 6 action flush with cash after steamrolling the sportsbooks last Sunday with their reliable favorites. The most popular teams last week that did the damage was the Packers, Cowboys, Buccaneers, Titans, and Bills linked up in parlays and once they all hit, the books couldn’t maneuver to make up for the many 10-to-1 and 20-to-1 payouts. Those types of winning weeks happen maybe twice or three times a season and the same type of betting pattern happens the following week with the same teams, except Joe Public has more money to invest.
Early reports for multiple Nevada sports have the public circling the same teams in an extraordinary fashion which sets up for another bloody weekend if they’re correct again. Of course, you know who the teams are but here go with the public favorites for Week 6, ride or fade with discretion.
The Cowboys come in at No. 1 collectively as the most bet tickets and most parlay cash taken for their game at New England. What is the public supposed to do with the only 5-0 ATS team remaining. You keep winning with the same team, you keep betting the same team. The Cowboys look sharp so far with a defense that is getting better. They look like a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
But if so many people are betting on the Cowboys, why is the line dropping. Circa Sports opened the Cowboys -4.5 at New England and are now Cowboys -3.5 -105. The Las Vegas SuperBook is at -3 -120.
There’s a sharp group that has taken the Patriots +4 and +3.5. The home dog is usually very attractive for wise guys. but it’s enhanced more when the road team is a public favorite with an additional point-and-half tax added.
The bookmakers have seen their Cowboys risk growing larger every week with everyone aboard the bandwagon of America’s Team. Joe Public will lay -3.5 or -4 when the game based on true ratings should be -2.5. But while the public is laying any price, it’s the wise guys showing the sportsbooks with large cash that the number is off. Crossing over 3 is a big deal.
I hope all that made sense because I do get asked often why a number is moving the other way against the most popular bet team.
The second most popular parlay bet this week is the Bills who play on Monday night at Tennessee. The Bills have moved up from the dead number of -5 to the other dead number of -5.5, no big deal except that the public is already throwing on the Bills to their parlays.
Monday always has carryover from the weekend, but the public is inspired more because the Bills are the 4-1 ATS with an average score of 34-12 on the season. If only half the public teams cover on Sunday, the Bills risk on Monday night is going to be massive to the point I would suggest waiting to bet the Titans until Monday if you like them. Why not possibly take +6.5 on Monday than bet the Titans +5.5 today?
The Chiefs are next at No. 3 although they are the public’s No. 1 bet at local bet shops at Station Casinos and the South Point who are the champagne of the public bettors. The Chiefs have moved from -6.5 to -7 EVEN at the SuperBook. The South Point also took a sharp bet on the Washington Football Team, but it’s just a blip in Public Chiefs money.
Last week they turned on the Chiefs because they played the popular Bills, but when you can mix in an awful defense the Washington’s turned out to be against the Chiefs offense that scores 30 ppg, it helps ease the pain that the Chiefs are 1-4 ATS and allow 32 ppg.
The total for KC-WASH has dropped from 55.5 to 54 even though both teams are 4-1 to the over. Washington allows 31 ppg. I think the public thinks so little of the Washington’s that they believe Patrick Mahomes can right the ship. The Chiefs are still the Chiefs, right?
Other teams that are being bet by the public that is more about who they are playing are the Rams and Colts. The Rams have dropped from -10.5 to -8 at the Giants and the Colts have been a steady 10-point home favorite against the Texans.
Most of the nation watched the Cowboys destroy the Giants last week, 47-20, and saw all the Giants injury woes coupled with allowing 27 ppg. So the Rams have to play a 10 am PT game after traveling across the country for an east coast game. The Rams last played Thursday in Week 5. They’re rested, but man that’s a lot of points to lay on the road. Chris Andrews at the South Point said he took sharp action on the Giants.
The Colts were impressive Monday night in an overtime loss at Baltimore. They covered to move to 3-2 ATS and made their dink and dunk pass game effective. The Colts have an impressive offensive line and front seven on defense. Meanwhile, the Texans are also 3-2 ATS, and rookie QB Davis Mills looked impressive in their 25-22 home loss to the Patriots. Rough number to lay, but they don’t like the Texans.
Marc Nelson at the Reno Atlantis said he had sharp money laying the Colts earlier in the week. Jason McCormick at Station Casinos said they have sharp action on the Texans +10.
Other sharp plays for the week include the Chargers, Vikings, Bengals, Patriots. Jaguars, and Browns.
The Browns will be without RB Nick Chubb and they’ve moved up from -2.5 to -3.5 at home against the 5-0 Cardinals who have QB Kyler Murray with a banged-up shoulder. The Cardinals also have COVID-19 protocols happening with a few players notably LB Chandler Jones and a few key DBs.
Joe Public is split on the side as the Browns come off a loss and the Cardinals struggled at home against the 49ers. They like both the teams so neither registers as one the most lopsided sides. But it should be an entertaining game.
The Jaguars have dropped from 3.5-point home underdogs against the Dolphins to +3. Winless and 1-4 ATS, the Jaguars have shown spurts of good plays but nothing consistent. The 1-4 Dolphins allow 30 ppg.
The Bengals have gone from -3.5 at Detroit to -4 and then back down to -3.5. The Lions are 0-5 but they could easily be 4-1 after being in so many close games. They’re 3-2 ATS which is better than the Bengals 2-3 ATS mark.
The Panthers opened as 1-point home favorites against the Vikings but sharp action has pushed the Vikings up to a 2-point favorite. Panthers RB Christian McCaffery is listed OUT for the game.
Sharp money took the Chargers at +3.5 and +3 at the Ravens. The Chargers apparently can’t be stopped anywhere, home and away. They’re 4-1 SU and ATS. The Ravens have turned into a passing team now going away from their run strength the last two weeks.
Best of luck with all your betting choices this weekend!