Betting Recap – Week 6

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

18 minute read

Overall Notes

The largest underdogs to win straight up

• Raiders +5 (ML +185) at Broncos, 34-24
• Cardinals +3 (ML +125) at Browns, 37-14
• Jaguars +3 (ML +135) vs. Dolphins (London), 23-20

The largest favorites to cover

• Colts (-11.5) vs. Texans, 31-3
• Rams (-7.5) at Giants, 38-11
• Chiefs (-6.5) vs. 49ers, 31-13
• Packers (-5.5) at Jaguars, 24-14

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Dallas Cowboys-New England Patriots game was very exciting in Sunday's late window. The Patriots (+4, ML +175) held a slim 21-20 lead, and that's the way it looked like it might end. All the Patriots needed to do was get a first down or two to salt things away. UNDER (50.5) bettors were also feeling very good with just under three minutes to go in regulation.

With just 2:27 to go, rookie QB Mac Jones was picked off by CB Trevon Diggs, who beat his fellow Alabama alumnus for the interception and a subsequent 42-yard return for touchdown. For the first time all day the Cowboys were covering, even after misfiring on the two-point conversion. Just 16 seconds later, Jones bounced right back, hitting WR Kendrick Bourne for his first catch of the day. Bourne did the rest, taking it to the end zone for a 75-yard score. The Pats also hit the two-point conversion, and they led 29-26. And just like that, the UNDER was gone.

Not to be outdone, QB Dak Prescott drove the Cowboys into Patriots territory and set up the game-tying field goal from 49 yards out. PK Greg Zuerlein sent the game to overtime, knotting things up at 29.

In the overtime session, Prescott threw a dart to WR CeeDee Lamb for his second touchdown of the day. The 35-yard score helped the Cowboys to the win, and the unfortunate non-cover for the Patriots. 

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The Miami Dolphins opened the season with a 17-16 road win against the New England Patriots in Week 1, and things were looking up. They ended up losing QB Tua Tagovailoa to injury, and a four-game losing skid ensued. They got their franchise quarterback into the lineup for Sunday's game at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, and they were facing the winless Jacksonville Jaguars. They'd surely get back on track, right?

Well, things started off well enough for the Dolphins. They fired out to a 13-3 lead before the Jaguars cut the lead to 13-10 right before halftime.

The Jags picked up right where they left off, as RB James Robinson punched one in from a yard out, giving the Jaguars their first lead of the day. It stayed that way until the fourth quarter, when rookie WR Jaylen Waddle hauled in his second touchdown of the day, as the Alabama connection was working overseas. The Dolphins led 20-17 late into the fourth quarter, but the pesky Jaguars were determined to get that first win.

PK Matthew Wright nailed one from 54 yards out to tie things up 20-20 with 3:40 to go, and then Wright bagged the game-winning field goal with zeroes on the clock from 53 yards away. The Jags, head coach Urban Meyer and rookie QB Trevor Lawrence, picked up their first win of the season, and the franchise snapped a 20-game losing streak in the process. If you laid the points with the Dolphins, or just bet the money line, it was a rough finish.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board in Week 6 was in the Sunday Night Football game between the Seattle Seahawks-Pittsburgh Steelers (43). We had a scoreless first quarter, and the Seattle offense was moribund in the first half with backup QB Geno Smith starting in place of the injured QB Russell Wilson (finger). Smith and the Seahawks came alive in the second half. We had 31 points on the board heading to the fourth quarter, and just 34 total points with under two to play. However, a 52-yard field goal by Chris Boswell put the home side up 20-17. Smith miraculously led the Seahawks down the field for the game-tying field goal, tying it 20-20 to force overtime. DE T.J. Watt forced a fumble on a sack, jarring the ball loose deep in Seattle territory. Boswell knocked it through from 37 yards, and after all of that, we had a push.

The next lowest total was in the Green Bay Packers-Chicago Bears (44) game, and the UNDER was never in doubt. We had just 17 points on the board at the break, and 24 total points through 45 minutes.

The highest total was in the Kansas City Chiefs-Washington Football Game (54), but things never really got off the ground for OVER bettors. The Chiefs did their part, even after committing their NFL-high 14th turnover. Washington is to blame, however, going scoreless in the final 30 minutes.

The second-highest total was in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Philadelphia Eagles (53) game, and we had a total of 50 points in that one. The game started off quick enough, as we had a total of 21 points in the first quarter. There were 42 total points through three quarters, but then things grinded to a halt.

So in the primetime games, the UNDER is 1-0-1 with the Buffalo Bills-Tennessee Titans (53.5) still pending. That's now 9-6-1 (60.0%) through 16 primetime games. In 2020, the UNDER was 28-19-1 (59.5%) in 48 primetime contests. In 2019, the UNDER went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 7

New York Jets at New England Patriots (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Jets (1-4) travel to meet the Patriots (2-4) for the second and final meeting of the season. New England traveled to MetLife Stadium and picked up a 25-6 win in Week 2, as Jones outdueled fellow rookie QB Zach Wilson. New England covered a 5.5-point number as the UNDER (43.5) connected.

The Jets are coming off a bye, so they'll have two weeks to prepare for the Pats this time around. New York enters 1-4 ATS in the past five outings, with the OVER hitting in the past two. New York is also 5-15 ATS in the past 20 against AFC East teams.

The Patriots have also hit the OVER in the past two, and they're also 2-4 ATS. New England has picked up the pace offensively, going for 27.0 PPG across the past two outings.

New England is 4-1-1 ATS in the past six home meetings with New York, while going 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings overall.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Bengals (4-2) and Ravens (5-1) tangle in Charm City, and Cincinnati has a shot to work its way into first place in the AFC North with a victory.

Cincinnati worked over Detroit 34-11 in the Motor City, covering as 3.5-point favorites on the road. The UNDER has cashed in five straight games for the Bengals. The Bengals have played just one game inside the division this season, winning on the road and covering as 2.5-point 'dogs at Pittsburgh in Week 3.

The Ravens have won five consecutive games, including a convincing 34-6 win against the Los Angeles Chargers in a marquee game on Sunday. Baltimore has alternated non-covers and covers in each of its six games to date. The UNDER is 3-1 in the past four for Baltimore.

Cincinnati has cashed in five of the past seven meetings in Baltimore, while the road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five in this series.

Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)

The Lions (0-6) and Rams (5-1) got together and swapped quarterbacks this past offseason. L.A. has QB Matthew Stafford, and he has excelled in his new home. QB Jared Goff, well, let's just say he has struggled a bit in his new surroundings, and head coach Dan Campbell expects more.

It's a revenge game, so perhaps Goff will bring it in front of what might be a bit of a hostile crowd. Perhaps that will get him going. And perhaps the Lions defense will use facing Stafford as some sort of motivation.

The Rams are favored by more than two touchdowns, and the Lions are 3-1 ATS this season as an underdog of 7.5 or more points.

The Lions are 4-9 ATS in the past 13 as a road underdog, and they're 1-4 ATS in the past five against winning teams. The Rams are 9-4-1 ATS in the past 14 as a home favorite.

Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)

We get another revenge game, as Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins gets a shot at the team which traded him. And while Texans RB David Johnson has a reserve role these days, perhaps he'll get more touches in his old stomping grounds.

The Texans have dropped five straight since a Week 1 win against the Jaguars. They have also covered just once in the past four outings, with the UNDER going 3-1 during the span.

The Cardinals worked over a good Cleveland Browns team in their building, with Arizona winning 37-14 as 3-point underdogs. The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in the past four, and 5-1 ATS overall. Arizona's only non-cover came in one of its two home games, with the OVER/UNDER splitting 1-1.

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