Last Updated Oct 29, 2021, 11:00 PM

Vegas Money Moves - Week 8

The sportsbooks got steamrolled the last three weeks with winning parlays cashing and it continued to start NFL Week 8 action when the Packers won at undefeated Arizona, 24-21, covering the money-line and +6.5 while also staying under 51.

Joe Public went against the grain by not siding with the favorite despite three WRs out for the Packers, including Davante Adams, the best WR in the NFL.

“We could have used a Cardinals cover,” said Marc Nelson of Atlantis Reno. “We did okay, but we had a ton of Packers money-line and +6.5. Everyone said how can you not bet the Packers getting almost a touchdown.”

It was the same story for most books on Thursday. Don’t feel sorry for the sportsbooks losing the last three weeks, even though I don’t ever remember losing three straight NFL Sundays in my almost 30 years in the business.

Losing stinks and these guys in Nevada have to deal with more garbage than the national European chain of books. By the way, what in the hell just happened after the repeal of PASPA? How were American gaming companies so weak to the market and how were these European companies allowed to just dominate by force (cash) with stale products everywhere?

Anyway, you would love Nevada sportsbooks because they let you bet side to total parlays, NFL teasers, and also let you parlay a Sunday game with the Monday night game. The Euros are going to show Americans proper booking as they still learn the U.S. sports.

The Nevada sportsbooks are mostly part of a casino and are a small portion of the overall casino revenue (varies 1-to-9%), but losing doesn’t go over well with the Casino boss. “Fix it!” Lose again. “I thought it was fixed, what happened?”

The national books aren’t even trying to win, they’re goal is just getting customer retention for a 10-year global plan. Free-money, free-money everywhere for everyone, please sign-up with us. But it’s all floating money. Nevada bookmakers have to win to get a bonus at year's end, and even then the amount depends on the casino that generates 95% of the revenue.

No one likes to lose, but I know the VPs and directors at the Nevada sportsbooks are under more pressure to win than the national books.

So this all intertwines with losing the last three weeks and Thursday. They’re feeling the pressure. They’re inflating prices on all the popular public teams, both good and bad.

Betting against the Jets (1-5 ATS) has been just as popular as betting on the Cardinals (6-2 ATS). And in Week 8, Joe Public is betting against the Jets again making the Bengals inflated to 10.5-point road favorites. Jets backup QB Mike White is making the start.

The Bengals are Station Casinos top public play of the week and they’re second-most bet at the South Point, SuperBook, Atlantis, and BetMGM.

I can’t make a serious case for the Jets and I can talk all day about why the Bengals will cover after winning four of their last five, but the public weight on it and the inflated price crossing over 10 have me skeptical.

But these people are on fire. They need TV shows. In the last three weeks in this column, I have talked about all their teams and best selections for the week and they end up winning and covering almost all of them.

I always say the number eventually catches up with all teams, but then the Jets lose 54-13 to the Patriots last week. It goes on and on, and yes, inflation will eventually catch them -- it does with all of us lately in day-to-day life -- but it isn’t catching them now.

I like to call this group of seven NFL dregs the Jets are part of the Dirty 7. They’re a group that has combined to go 8-39 straight-up and 16-31 ATS this season and Joe Public is making lots of money every week just betting against those teams. Is it too late to jump on board? Or, has the well run dry?

Here’s the Dirty 7: Jets, Dolphins, Texans, Jaguars, Giants, Football Team, and the Lions.

The South Point’s top public play this week is the Bills laying -14 at home against the Dolphins who the public just saw the Bills beat 35-0 in Week 3. The Bills have the No. 1 defense in the NFL allowing only 272 ypg, but most of the public is still first betting against the Dolphins and then betting on the Bills offense. The Bills are No. 2 at Stations and No. 5 at BetMGM.

Great offenses are endearing to Joe Public.

The SuperBook and BetMGM's top public plays this week are the Cowboys who opened -2.5 at Minnesota last week and are now +3. I don't know if they know if Cowboys QB Dak Prescott might not play with a calf injury, but dammit, the Cowboys are 6-0 ATS.

The Cowboys had a bye last week and Prescott did a walk-through in practice but backup QB Cooper Rush has taken most of the first-string snaps in practice. More news to be unveiled on Prescott’s situation on Saturday. Find out first before you bet.

Other popular choices from the public this week are the Buccaneers (-4 at New Orleans) and the Titans (+2.5 at Indianapolis).

The Colts and Titans are both 5-2 ATS, but the Titans have a two-game win advantage at 5-2. But the Colts had all their injured players back practicing during the week which had sharp bettors driving the Colts number higher from Titans -1.5 to Colts -2.5. Books always flow the spread towards what bet respected faces give them. Rarely ever for the public.

Indianapolis has won their last two games, covered their last four, and Carson Wentz is being a great leader and has 11 TDs with only one pick on the season. The Titans won 25-16 at home against the Colts (+4.5) in Week 3. The Titans also gave the Jets their only win of the season and now the Titans have won four straight. The favorite is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

Tom Brady has been great at home for the Buccaneers but he hasn’t covered any road game (0-3 ATS) so far while averaging a 23-24 score. The Bucs are No. 1 in passing (324 ypg) while the Saints passing offense is No. 31 (176 ypg), but a few sharp groups bet the Saints at +4.5 down to +4. These groups hit the South Point, Station Casinos, and Atlantis.

Another top sharp play during the week was on the Patriots, but that was more about the number taking +6, +5.5, +5, and +4.5 at the Chargers where we have to regularly remember there is no home field for the Chargers.

But let’s give the Chargers +1 for home just because the Patriots have to travel across the country and sleep in a different bed. Chargers -4 looks like the proper number. A reminder among the Patriots tough losses to good competition is that they beat the Jets twice and Texans in a thriller.

Sharps have played the Vikings just because of the uncertainty because Cooper Rush starting should have the Vikings -5 if announced. The current Vikings -3 number is about a two-thirds out number. They think he’s out but just want to be sure in case he plays.

The SuperBook took sharp plays on the Eagles (+3 at Detroit) and the Falcons (-3 vs. Panthers). The Eagles are -3.5 at winless Detroit. The Lions have had a brutal schedule to get to 0-7, but the Eagles only win since Week 2 was a comeback at Carolina.

Carolina won its first three games and now has lost the last four. QB Sam Darnold got benched last week. He loved the press he was getting at 3-0, but the mounting pressure of losing has taken him deep off-target to some Jets days.

I wish I had more advice for you all, but these are whacky times so you’re on your own. All the best.

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