Betting Recap – Week 9

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

18 minute read

Overall Notes

The largest underdogs to win straight up

• Jaguars +16 (ML +700) vs. Bills, 9-6
• Broncos +10 (ML +400) at Cowboys, 30-16
• Titans +7 (ML +270) at Rams, 28-16
• Falcons +6.5 (ML +250) at Saints, 27-25
• Cardinals +5.5 (ML +200) at 49ers, 31-17
• Giants +3 (ML +135) vs. Raiders, 23-16

The largest favorites to cover

• Colts (-10) vs. Jets, 45-30 (Thu.)
• Dolphins (-4) vs. Texans, 17-9
• Patriots (-3.5) at Panthers, 24-6

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

If you were holding a Minnesota Vikings (+270) ticket, my condolences. Things were looking great in the first quarter, as QB Kirk Cousins hooked up with WR Justin Jefferson for a 50-yard touchdown, making it 7-3 in favor of Minnesota. The Vikings pushed that lead to 17-3 late in the second quarter, but RB Devonta Freeman had a touchdown with 19 seconds left in the first half, closing the lead to 17-10.

The second half started out great for the Vikings, as RB Kene Nwangwu ripped off a 98-yard kickoff return to restore the 14-point lead. That's how things stayed until Baltimore rattled off 21 straight points to take a 31-24 lead. Then, it was Cousins and WR Adam Thielen hooking up with 63 seconds left in regulation to force overtime, 31-31.

QB Lamar Jackson, who went over 100 yards rushing on the ground again, saved the day, and smartly used the clock to his advantage in overtime. The Ravens salted away the last minute in OT, setting up the field goal while not giving the Vikings a chance if PK Justin Tucker missed. But Tucker doesn't miss, especially from just 36 yards out. He banged it home, and the Ravens won, with the Vikings covering. But Minnesota money line bettors were oh-so-close to tripling up, and they settled for a crumpled up ticket instead.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

Total bettors in the Atlanta Falcons-New Orleans Saints (43) who had the UNDER are still muttering bad words.

We had a total of just three points on the board after the first quarter, and the Falcons led 10-0 at the break, as Saints QB Trevor Siemian could do nothing. He was starting for the injured QB Jameis Winston, who suffered an ACL and MCL injury last week and will be out for the season. So Siemian is the guy, with some QB Taysom Hill sprinkled in.

Things picked up slightly in the third quarter, as the teams combined for 10 points, with Atlanta leading 17-3. But UNDER bettors were will feeling good with 22 points to play with to still cash an UNDER.

PK Brian Johnson knocked through a 53-yard field goal for the home side, cutting the lead to 17-6. Then, WR Olamide Zaccheaus snagged a 6-yard touchdown with 10:39 to go, pushing Atlanta's lead to 24-6. But that was 10 quick points. Ut-oh.

It got worse. Siemian came alive with a 5-yard TD strike to WR Marquez Callaway with 7:57 to go, and then RB Alvin Kamara punched one in from two yards out to make it 24-19. A missed two-point conversion gave UNDER bettors hope at a push, but that went out the window with a Siemian strike to WR Kenny Stills with 1:01 to go.

A money line win for Falcons (+250) bettors looked like it slipped away, too, but vintage QB Matt Ryan helped Atlanta get positioned for a game-winning field goal, and PK Younghoe Koo came through from 29 yards out to win it 27-25. But 32 total points in the fourth quarter, that was ugly for UNDER bettors.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board in Week 9, at least on Sunday, was the New England Patriots-Carolina Panthers (41.5) game. It started off well for UNDER bettors with a scoreless first quarter. We had a total of 20 points in the second quarter, and 10 points in the third, but a scoreless fourth helped UNDER bettors get across the finish line.

The lowest total is in the Monday night game between the Chicago Bears-Pittsburgh Steelers (39), which we'll discuss below.

The second lowest total on the board was the Falcons-Saints game, and you know how that went.

On the flip side, the highest total on the board for Week 9 was the Sunday Night Football game between the Tennessee Titans-Los Angeles Rams (53). It was believed that the Titans would struggle with no RB Derrick Henry (foot) sidelined, although they were expected to pass more. The Titans offense was just fine, putting up 28 points. The game was never really in doubt, either. It was the Rams who struggled, posting just 16 points, while giving the Titans a short field on a miscue one time, and gifting a pick-six on another occasion. That still didn't move the needle on the total, which was well UNDER.

In the primetime games, the OVER/UNDER went 1-1, with the MNF game between the Bears and Steelers still pending. The OVER is now 12-11-1 (52.2%) through 24 primetime games. In 2020, the UNDER was 28-19-1 (59.5%) in 48 primetime contests. In 2019, the UNDER went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 10

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Jaguars (2-6) travel to meet the Colts (4-5), and Jacksonville pulled off the biggest upset in the NFL this season when it pushed past Buffalo 9-6 in a field-goal fest and Josh Allen fest in Duvalll.

Suddenly, Jacksonville has won two of the past three games, and it has alternated covers in the past six outings. In other words, the Jaguars are still not a great team, but they're also no longer a pushover.

The Colts will be rested after spanking the Jets 45-30 on Thursday night in Week 9. Indy gets a couple of extra days to mend, and that will help. Jacksonville has actually won two of the past three against Indianapolis straight up, while covering the past three. The Jaguars are also 8-1-1 ATS in the previous 10 meetings against the Colts, while cashing the OVER in three of the past four meetings.

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Bills (5-3) and Jets (2-6) square off, and New York is going to get an angry visitor. Buffalo shockingly struggled in a 9-6 loss at Jacksonville, losing outright as 16-point underdogs.

The Jets are just 1-3 ATS across the past four outings, and 2-6 ATS across eight games overall. Total bettors love the Jets, however, as the OVER has hit in each of the past five outings, after a 3-0 UNDER run to start the season.

The road team has covered four of the past six meetings in this series, although the home team covered in each of the two matchups in 2020. The UNDER has hit in three of the past four meetings in this series, too.

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Chiefs (5-4) and Raiders (5-3) tangle on Sunday night, and both teams are looking to get the offense back on track after some shaky recent outings.

Kansas City won 13-7 against the Green Bay Packers and QB Jordan Love, failing to cover in an easy UNDER result. The Chiefs have failed to cover in each of the past three, while averaging just 12.0 PPG. It's no surprise the UNDER hit in those three games, and each of the past four.

The Raiders entered Week 9 in first place, and facing what looked like a very favorable road game against the New York Giants. The G-Men disagreed, hanging a 23-16 loss on the Silver and Black before heading back to Vegas. The Raiders will be happy to be home, as they're 3-1 SU/2-2 ATS in four home dates at Allegiant this season. These teams split the regular-season meeting last year, with the road team winning each, and the Raiders covering both. The OVER also hit in each contest.

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Rams (7-2) and 49ers (3-5) get together on Monday night. And like many of the teams above, both sides will be angry and looking for the bounce back.

L.A. stumbled to a 28-16 loss at home against the Tennessee Titans, and the offense struggled more than it has all season. QB Matthew Stafford really was knocked around, and he was limping after having his ankle rolled up on at one point. He already missed practice time with a sore back last week, so perhaps Father Time finally re-discovered Staff after losing track of him for a while.

The Niners were dumped at home by the Arizona Cardinals, even though QB Kyler Murray and WR DeAndre Hopkins were sidelined. Yes, Frisco was topped by QB Colt McCoy, who everyone just realized is still in the league.

San Francisco actually won both meetings last season, and the 49ers are 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS in the past four in this series. The Niners won 24-16 at Levi's Stadium last season in Week 6 as 2.5-point underdogs as the UNDER.

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