Last Updated Nov 20, 2021, 00:00 AM
Vegas Money Moves Week 11
Joe Public went back to the drawing board after having a subpar previous three weeks of betting the NFL with an attempt to recreate the three straight weeks of dominating their sportsbooks that ended in Week 7.
So naturally, in Week 11 NFL action, they’re coming strong with the meat and potatoes and the same old reliable formula. They are betting the teams they like with some kind of positive streak active while also betting against the same teams they hate every week.
Here’s a look at how this imaginary meeting went in some Elk’s Lodge union hall.
“Hello, my name is Mitch and I am president of the public parlay people’s choice, thank you for your participation. The first team we must discuss and decide on is the Packers who have covered nine straight. Do we like them to cover again at Minnesota laying -1.5?”
The crowd burst out in laughter with one gent saying “Why ask? As if. Why stop betting them now?”
The Packers opened as 2.5-point road favorites and sharp money at the Las Vegas SuperBook, South Point, and Station Casinos all came in on the Vikings. We have ourselves a sharp-public divide on the game.
“So we all agree,” Mitch said. “Packers to the front as our top choice of week 11. Sold! The next topic up for discussion is how much we hate the Jaguars. Do we want to lay off them after covering three of their last four games and beating the Bills, or do we think the 49ers have finally woken up?”
The crowd has lots of differing opinions on the game but ultimately agrees that they all like the 49ers to start the roll that never happened in 2021 as they come off an impressive Monday night win at the Rams.
“They just beat the Rams 31-10,” said one guy. “They should kill the Jags.”
The 49ers are 3-6 ATS and the Jaguars are 4-5 ATS and while sharp money hasn’t come on either side so far, the public appreciation of the 49ers this week forced a move from the 49ers -5.5 to -6.5. It’s the second most popular choice this week among the public. One extra note on the game is that the Jaguars better play in the last four weeks has also coincided with all four games staying under the total. The number dropped from 46 to 45 at Circa Sports.
So just like that, the betting public has decided that the Packers and 49ers are the top plays and the Titans are next since they’ve won six straight and covered five of the six. But sharp money at Station Casinos and BetMGM is once again taking the points dropping the visiting Texans from +10.5 to +10.
Again, another sharp-public divide. Two of the top-3 public games have sharp money against them and sharp money wins more than they lose.
After those three root games for most of the public, their favorites start to branch off into the Bills (-7 vs. Colts) while others are playing the Cardinals (-2 at Seattle), Chargers (-6 vs. Steelers), and Chiefs (-2,5 vs. Cowboys).
The Bills came back to lie last week and reassured their followers they were good to go with a 45-17 win at the Jets.
Speaking of the Jets, Joe Flacco at QB is starting against the Dolphins for some reason. This is insane. The Dolphins are 3-point road favorites before and -3.5 after the Flacco announcement and sharp money thinks the game stinks and public money says they hate both teams, so it's a stalemate. The Jets are 2-7, the season lost, but nothing can be gained by starting a dinosaur like Flacco. He’s not in future plans, Mike White might be. Flacco starting makes no sense other than maybe reviving Zach Wilson’s confidence that the starting QB job is his upon returning.
Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins has already been listed out and QB Kyler Murray is again a game-time decision. The Cardinals have been a steady 2-point road favorite since opening, but be cautious here even though Arizona is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Seattle. Russell Wilson will start his second game since coming back for the Seahawks, but wow was he awful in a 17-0 loss at Green Bay last week. If betting the Cardinals now, you might end up with Colt McCoy as your starting QB. The favorite will flip if McCoy starts.
The west coast Steelers fans will have about 70% of seats taken at SoFi Stadium when the Steelers play the Chargers Sunday night. No home edge for the Chargers other than sleeping on their own pillows Saturday night and not having to fly. It’s worth almost a full-point edge for the Chargers, but the flying Terrible Towels in the crowd and noise is worth half-point for the road team.
The public likes the Chargers and respected money at the SuperBook does too, laying -3.5 and -4.5. The Chargers are now -6.
The game that has Joe Public pulled in two directions is the Cowboys getting +2.5 at Kansas City. On one side, they’ve always loved the Chiefs and showed they’re back last week in a 41-14 win at Las Vegas.
Chiefs less than a field goal at home is too much to pass up for some. They like the Chiefs more than they like the Cowboys, even though the Cowboys had a reawakening win last week, 43-3, against the Falcons.
The top wiseguy play this week between the Atlantis, South Point, Station Casinos, and BetMGM was taking the Bears +6.5 at home against the Ravens who suffered a bad loss at Miami last Thursday.
Cam Newton is starting at QB for the Panthers at home against Washington and sharps laid -3 at the SuperBook to push them to -3.5 EVEN. The South Point took sharp action on Washington but remained at -3.5 flat.
BetMGM saw sharp bets on the Texans (+10.5) and Giants +11 Monday night at Tampa Bay. Are the Giants finally healthy?
“Meeting is adjourned,” said Mitch.