Last Updated Nov 22, 2021, 7:00 AM

Betting Recap - Week 11

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 11 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-5
Against the Spread 7-7
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 5-9
Against the Spread 3-11
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 5-9
National Football League Year-to-Date Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 97-65-1
Against the Spread 71-91-1
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 79-83-1
Against the Spread 66-96-1
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 72-89-2

The largest underdogs to win straight up

  • Texans +10 (ML +380) at Titans, 22-13
  • Colts +7 (ML +250) at Bills, 41-15
  • Cardinals +4.5 (ML +190) at Seahawks, 23-13
  • Washington +3.5 (ML +150) at Panthers, 27-21

The largest favorites to cover

  • Patriots (-7) at Falcons, 25-0
  • 49ers (-6.5) at Jaguars, 30-10
  • Dolphins (-4) at Jets, 24-17
  • Eagles (-3) vs. Saints, 40-29

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Baltimore Ravens-Chicago Bears (+1.5, ML +105) game saw late fireworks, and Chicago money line bettors were left disappointed in the end.

Wth 3:41 to go in regulation, the Ravens got a 46-yard field goal from PK Justin Tucker to go ahead 9-7. The Bears were no longer covering, and money line bettors were angered. However, QB Andy Dalton, who replaced an injury QB Justin Fields (ribs), led the team the field for the go-ahead score. He hit WR Marquise Goodwin for the 49-yard touchdown to put the Bears up 13-9. It looked like the Bears were going to cash that ticket after all. But, like the last game in Pittsburgh on Monday Night Football in Week 9, the Bears were unable to hold the lead.

The Ravens went the length of the field, with a backup QB Tyler Huntley, by the way, subbing the ill QB Lamar Jackson. RB Devonta Freeman punched in a run from three yards out, and the visitors went on to the 16-13 victory.

For Bears money line bettors and side bettors, it was like losing twice. Those are the toughest bets.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The Green Bay Packers (-1.5, ML -125)-Minnesota Vikings had another wild finish, and the late fireworks at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis made the Baltimore-Chicago finish look like nothing.

The Vikings held a 23-17 lead heading to the fourth quarter, but WR Davante Adams scored an 18-yard touchdown from QB Aaron Rodgers, going ahead 24-23 wit 7:49 to go. It looked like it might be another Vikings heartbreaking loss in the final quarter.

However, QB Kirk Cousins hit WR Justin Jefferson with a beautiful 23-yard scoring strike to the right front pylon, as the home side went ahead 29-24. With an easy two-point conversion run for QB Dalvin Cook, the Vikings were ahead 31-24 with 2:17 to go.

That lead lasted nine seconds. Rodgers hit a streaking WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling down the left sidelines for a 75-yard quick strike, knotting the game up at 31-31.

The Vikings wouldn't be denied, however, working it down the field to set up PK Greg Joseph for the game-winning field goal from 29 yards out. It was a bummer for Packers side bettors and/or money line bettors.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board in Week 11 was the Ravens-Bears (40.5) game, and as mentioned above, the total wasn't low enough. We had just 29 combined points, as the OVER was never threatened. 

The second lowest total on the board was the game between the Detroit Lions-Cleveland Browns (42), and like the Ravens, the visitors will using a first-time NFL starter under center. QB Tim Boyle made the start with QB Jared Goff (groin) inactive due to an injury. Boyle didn't even pass for 100 yards, with the Lions getting their only touchdown from RB D'Andre Swift. The Lions made it close in the end, but came up short 13-10. The OVER never had a chance.

On the flip side, the highest total on the board for Week 11 was in the Dallas Cowboys-Kansas City Chiefs (56.5) game. We had a total of 12 points in the first quarter, and it looked like this game might be as advertised, but just off to a slow start. Unfortunately for OVER bettors, the first quarter was the only time we had a combined total of double-digit points in a quarter. We had just seven points in the second, six in the third and three in the fourth for a surprising defensive battle.

In the primetime games, the OVER/UNDER was 1-1, with the MNF game between the New York Giants-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (50) still pending. The UNDER is now 15-14-1 (51.7%) through 30 primetime games. In 2020, the UNDER was 28-19-1 (59.5%) in 48 primetime contests. In 2019, the UNDER went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 12

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET)

The Bears (3-7) and Lions (0-9-1) kick off the Thanksgiving Day festivities in the early game, as is tradition. These teams last met on Thanksgiving on Nov. 28, 2019, with the Bears coming away with a 24-20 win. The teams also met on Thanksgiving on Nov. 22, 2018, and the Bears took that one 23-16.

It used to be pretty common that the Lions would play their best game on Thanksgiving, but lately things have gone south for the Honolulu Blue and Silver. Detroit has lost four straight on Thanksgiving dating back to a 16-13 win against the Minnesota Vikings on Nov. 24, 2016.

These teams met in Week 4 at Soldier Field, with the Bears coming away with a 24-14 win as three-point favorites as the UNDER (41.5) connected. The Bears have covered in five of the past seven meetings.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Bengals upended the Steelers 24-10 in Week 3 as 2.5-point underdogs at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh as the UNDER (42) connected. Cincinnati has covered the past two meetings, although Pittsburgh is 21-9-1 ATS in the past 31 meetings, and a whopping 16-4-2 ATS in the past 22 trips to Cincinnati.

The UNDER is 5-1-1 in the past seven meetings in this series, too.

The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in the past five road games, while going 34-15-3 ATS in the past 52 games as an underdog. The UNDER has hit in seven of the past 10 games overall, and 8-3-1 in the past 12 as a road underdog.

The Bengals are 1-4 ATS in the past five home games, while the OVER is 5-1-1 in the past seven as a home favorite, and 7-3-1 in the past 11 divisional games.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Eagles have won back-to-back games for the first time this season, as QB Jalen Hurts continues to run the Eagles to victories. They're also 3-1 SU/ATS across the past four games to move within one game of .500.

The Giants won the most recent meeting in New Jersey, snapping an eight-game run in this series by the Eagles. While Philly is 8-1 SU in the past nine meetings, the G-Men have actually covered four of the past five, and six of the past eight. The UNDER is 4-1 in the past five meetings in this series, too.

Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)

The Chargers are coming off a thrilling 41-37 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night, while the Broncos are coming off a bye. Will one team resting for two weeks, while another coming off an emotional win on a short week make a difference?

L.A. won the most recent meeting at SoFi Stadium on Dec. 27, 2020 in front of no fans, winning 19-16. The Chargers covered a 2.5-point number in that three-point win, its first in the series in the past four games. Denver has won four of the past five at home against L.A., and the UNDER is 5-2 in the past seven meetings in this series.

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