Vegas Money Moves Week 12

The betting public loves their NFL favorites but they are fickle and can turn on a dime with loyalty one week to the next. They love teams that can score quickly and often and basically anyone else who can string together a few covers in a row.

Their favorite team this week is the Patriots who have been bet up to a 7-point home favorite in Sunday’s Week 12 action against the Titans. It’s the same Titans who currently hold the AFC’s No. 1 seed. It’s the same Titans who were the most bet team last week from the average Joe. It’s the same Titans who were beaten at home by the 10-point underdog Texans.

The Titans cost a lot of people their parlays so they’re in the craphouse.

“I hate the Titans so much this week after losing to the Texans, I’m betting against them,” one disgruntled Titans bettor might say.

Of course, the Patriots have won and covered their last five. Bill Belichick is back to being a genius again and rookie QB Mac Jones doesn’t look like a rookie anymore. The Patriots are 7-4 straight-up and ATS and are currently tied with the Bills atop the AFC East.

The disdain for the Titans was a quick flip of the switch after failing to cover their last two games which came after winning and covering five straight. They’ve won six of their last seven games. This week’s situation also fits what has been the Titans best scenario. They’ve covered the spread in their last five as an underdog, four of them outright wins on the road this season.

The Las Vegas SuperBook posted the Titans -2.5 for this game last week in their look-ahead lines and was bet up to -3 on Tuesday and then -3.5 on Saturday before their 22-13 loss that paid +380 for Texans bettors on Sunday. When they reposted the game Sunday night it was -5.5 and then the sharp bets came on Tuesday pushing to -6.5. The move to -7 came on Wednesday.

Tennessee at New England (CBS, 1:00 p.m.)

Next up is the public’s No. 2 most bet side this week, the Eagles -3.5 at the Giants. Part of it is that they hate the 3-7 Giants and just watched them get beat and not cover Monday night at Tampa Bay. Another part is that the Eagles backers are strong in Las Vegas.

But my theory on all the Philly action this week from the public is that they’re enamored with Eagles QB Jalen Hurts who has guided the Eagles to win and covers their last two games. Hurts is hard to defend and finds ways to make something out of nothing. The public thinks they’ve stumbled onto a star and bet accordingly until he does them wrong.

They rode the Patrick Mahomes waves in his first full season starting for Kansas City and they rode with Justin Herbert and the Chargers when it became clear he wasn’t a regular rookie QB.

While all the major sportsbooks in Nevada have the Eagles as one of the most bet sides of the week, Station Casinos also has had sharp money bet the Giants. Almost everyone is -3.5 with Caesars Sportsbooks posted at Eagles -4. This NFC East rivalry has seen the road team go 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and the Giants go 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. It’s their first hook-up this season.

Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants (FOX, 1:00 p.m.)

And then we come to the No. 3 most popular ticket of Week 12, the Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 at Denver, a number most have attached mone. Chargers -3 will likely be sooner than later. If you do like the Chargers, bet it now. And if you like Denver as a home dog, as no one seems to -- no sharps either, then wait a while a see if you can pull down +3.5.

The Chargers fancy with the public baffles me beginning with blowing a two TD lead against the Steelers Sunday night for the entire world to see the Chargers fail to cover in a 41-37 win. It cost a lot of bettors some money so I guess they just hate Denver more after they laid an egg at home to the Eagles last week, one week after the Broncos won at Dallas. I think what the public took away from the Chargers game and value the most is being able to put up 37-points on the scoreboard and being able to score at seemingly anytime they want. Chargers get the public pass. The Broncos are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five at home against the Chargers.

L.A. Chargers at Denver (CBS, 4:05 p.m.)

Sharp money and public money are both on the Rams at Green Bay, but the divide among the public isn’t that great. The Atlantis-Reno and SuperBook both have more tickets on the Packers than the Rams and it ranks as one of their most popular tickets written.

Circa Sports opened the Packers as 2-point home favorites over the Rams who come off a bye, but also two losses. The line movement went from -2 to -1.5 on Sunday and then it was pick ‘em on Monday and moved to Rams -1 on Wednesday. On Friday they dropped from Rams -2.5 to -2. Several other sportsbooks are Rams -1.5.

Let’s be real, the Packers should be -3.5 for this game but Aaron Rodgers has a spinoff of turf toe that some are calling COVID-toe, part of the lingering effects that Rodgers has from contacting the disease that caused him to miss a game, one the Packers still covered at Kansas City.

The Rams have failed to cover four straight while the Packers are 9-2 ATS and 4-0 at home. On Sunday, Lambeau Field is expected to be a chilly 32 degrees with no precipitation but winds up to 17 mph. The Packers have stayed under the total in seven of their last eight. The totals has dropped from 48.5 to 47.

L.A. Rams at Green Bay (FOX, 4:25 p.m.)

Quick Hits

The 49ers have been a popular team this week as well for their home game against the Vikings. The 49ers have shown signs of being back to being the team we thought they might be when the season started. The Vikings play close games every week. Every week! With just a little luck they’d be in the driver’s seat for a playoff berth. Both teams have won and covered their last two games. Some sharp action on the 49ers at the South Point and BetMGM has forced the line upward past -3, but South Point is the only book that uses flat numbers so they had enough at -3 at went to -3.5 and haven’t taken Vikings action on the only 3.5 to push them so this may end up being -4 soon.

The Panthers have seen sharp action at the South Point, BetMGM, and the SuperBook for their game at Miami. The line rose from pick ‘em to Panthers -2 and to -2.5 at the SuperBook. The Panthers have the No. 2 overall defense and are No. 1 against the pass. The Panthers come off a home loss to Washington while the Dolphins have won and covered their last three.

The Monday game opened pick‘em and has stayed at pick’em with the Seahawks playing at Washington. Sharp money has bet the Football Team at Station Casinos and BetMGM. Russell Wilson has looked awful in his last two weeks taking over his starting QB role after ending the first lengthy time missed of his career. Two games back, two Seahawks losses, and two non-covers.

Hate to say it but Seahawks backup QB Geno Smith and the dumbed-down game plan actually made the Seahawks competitive with a chance to get Seahawks bettors cashing at the end of the game. Wilson has a pair of playmaking wide-outs that are dying for the ball.

Sharp money is already giving an indication that Washington will win and cover the spread for the third straight week. Circa Sports has moved the total from 46 to 47.

Lots to mull over before Monday night, good luck with your choices!

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