Betting Recap – Week 13

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

16 minute read

Overall Notes

The largest underdogs to win straight up

• Lions +7 (ML +270) vs. Vikings, 29-27
• Steelers +4 (ML +175) vs. Ravens, 20-19
• Chargers +3 (ML +125) at Bengals, 41-22
• Seahawks +2.5 (ML +125) vs. 49ers, 30-23

The largest favorites to cover

• Rams (-14) vs. Jaguars, 37-7
• Buccaneers (-10.5) at Falcons, 30-17
• Colts (-10) at Texans, 31-0
• Chiefs (-8.5) vs. Broncos, 22-9

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Atlanta Falcons (50.5) looked like it was hurtling toward an easy OVER result. The teams combined for 20 points in the first quarter, and a total of 37 points by the half, with the defending champs leading 20-17 at the break.

Things slowed down substantially in the third quarter, as the Buccaneers managed just a touchdown, with the Falcons blanked. The Falcons put up a good egg again, and the Bucs were able to scratch out just a field goal down the stretch. Hopefully you didn't start buying shots for the bar and celebrating at halftime, as the offense slowed to a crawl in a hugely disappointing second half after plenty of fireworks in the first 30.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

Like the Bucs-Falcons game above, the Jacksonville Jaguars-Los Angeles Rams (48) look to be in good shape for an OVER. But whenever you need help from the Jaguars offense to get things across the finish line, it usually doesn't end up very well.

The Rams led 10-0 at the end of the first quarter, and they held a 16-7 lead at the break, with the Jacksonville offense actually chipping in. After a pair of touchdowns in the first 11:33 of the third quarter, the Rams held a 30-7 lead, and they started to power things down and go to more of a run-based attack. OVER bettors needed the Jags to do something, anything. It wasn't happening.

L.A. posted a 1-yard touchdown from QB Matthew Stafford to WR Odell Beckham Jr. with 10:52 to go in regulation, and then OVER bettors had to painfully watch the rest of the game go without any points. The Jaguars have now hit the UNDER in second consecutive outings.

Going Streaking

-- The aforementioned Jaguars have cashed the UNDER in seven straight consecutive outings, including each of the past four games on the road.

-- The Denver Broncos have hit the UNDER in six consecutive games after its low-scoring 22-9 loss at Kansas City on SNF, and they're now 10-2 in 12 games to the UNDER so far this season.

-- The Miami Dolphins have picked up five consecutive victories, and they're 5-0 ATS in five outings, while hitting the UNDER in five of the past six.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board in Week 13 was the Giants-Dolphins (40) game, and it wasn't even close. These teams got off to a slow start with a scoreless first quarter, and the Giants managed just three fields, one in the second, third and fourth quarters. Miami is on a five-game win streak, and the UNDER is 4-1 during that span and 5-1 in the past six overall.

The second-lowest odds on the board are the pending titanic Monday night AFC matchup between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills (41). The next lowest game, the Arizona Cardinals-Chicago Bears (43), and that game was played in the rain. No worries. Each quarter ended up having a total of 10 or more points, including the final quarter which saw 17 total points for 55 overall.

On the flip side, the highest total on the board for Week 13 was in the Bucs-Falcons (50.5) game, and we told you how that one painfully ended. The second-highest total on the board was the Los Angeles Chargers-Cincinnati Bengals (50) game, and we had 16 or more points in three of the four quarters for a total of 63 points for the easy OVER.

In the primetime games, the UNDER was a perfect 3-0 for the second consecutive week, with the MNF game between the Patriots and Bills in the cold, wind and snow easily cashing UNDER. In fact, QB Mac Jones had just three total pass attempts. The UNDER is now on a 9-1 run across the past 10 primetime games. The UNDER is now 22-14-1 (61.1%) through 37 primetime games. In 2020, the UNDER was 28-19-1 (59.5%) in 48 primetime contests. In 2019, the UNDER went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 14

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The first-place Cowboys (8-4) and Washington (6-6) square off at FedEx Field for the first of two meetings down the stretch. This game will go a long way in determining the NFC East, too. A Washington win, and they're right in this thing, while a loss will push the Cowboys well ahead with just four regular-season games remaining.

Dallas slapped the brakes on a two-game mini-slide with a 27-17 win and cover over the New Orleans Saints on Thursday night last week. While they've been a bit inconsistent, going 2-3 ATS, the UNDER is a solid 5-1 across the past six outings.

Washington is on a four-game win streak, and they're 4-0 ATS during the run, too, getting back to .500 after a 2-6 SU start. The WFT is just 2-5 ATS in the past seven games at home against the Cowboys, although the underdog is an impressive 29-13 ATS in the past 42 meetings. The OVER has also cashed in nine of the previous 11 in the series.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Jaguars (2-10) will face the Titans (8-4) for the first time since Week 5 in Jacksonville. The Titans went down to TIAA Bank Stadium and picked up a 37-19 win for their highest scoring output of the season. That kicked off a six-game win streak, and 5-0 ATS run following a shocking loss on the road to the New York Jets.

Jacksonville was manhandled on the road against the Los Angeles Rams, dropping a fifth straight game since its stunning 9-6 win over the Buffalo Bills in Week 9 as a 14.5-point underdog. They're also 0-3 ATS across the past three, while the UNDER continues to cook for the Jags. The UNDER has hit in seven straight outings, with the last OVER hitting in that first meeting with Tennessee.

The Jaguars are just 2-7 ATS in the past nine meetings with the Titans, while going 1-4-1 ATS in the past six trips to Nashville. The OVER is also 5-1 in the past six meetings at Nissan Stadium, too.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Bears (4-8) tumbled in the rain against the Arizona Cardinals, slipping five games back of the first-place Packers (9-3), who were staying dry and warm during a bye. Both teams are 2-1 SU inside the NFC North Division, but the Pack have a huge advantage in overall record, obviously. The point differential for the Bears is minus-86, while the Packers are at plus-41.

Chicago has posted just one win in the past seven games overall, while going 0-3 ATS across the past three games, and 1-6 ATS in the previous seven outings. The UNDER is 8-3 in the previous 11 outings for Chicago, too, although the OVER cashed against the Cards.

Green Bay has been amazing against the spread, going 10-1 ATS across the past 11 games overall, with the only non-cover in Week 11 at Minnesota in a 34-31 loss. The OVER has hit in the past two for Green Bay after a 7-0 UNDER run from Weeks 4 through 10.

The Bears are just 1-4 ATS in the past five trips to Lambeau Field, while going 7-21 ATS in the previous 28 meetings in this series. The favorite has cashed in four straight meetings, too.

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Rams (8-4) and Cardinals (10-2) square off in a titanic NFC West Division battle on MNF. These teams met in Week 4 at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, with the Cardinals rolling to a 37-20 win as 3.5-point underdogs as the OVER connected.

Arizona welcomed back QB Kyler Murray from a multi-week absence, and he helped the Cards to a 33-22 win in rainy Chicago. The OVER is still 3-1 in the previous four outings with or without Murray. The offense has continued to hum.

Los Angeles registered a 37-7 win against Jacksonville in Week 13, cashing as a 14-point favorite. It was L.A.'s first cover as a double-digit favorite in three tries this season. The UNDER is 3-1 in the previous four for the Rams, and 5-2-1 across the past eight outings.

Despite the ugly loss in L.A. earlier in the season, the Rams are still 7-1-1 ATS in the past nine meetings overall, and 6-0 ATS in the past six trips to Arizona. The road team is 4-1-1 ATS in the past six in this series, too.

Where to place a bet this NFL Season?

• Use our exclusive BetMGM Bonus Code VIBONUS1500 to unlock BetMGM’s welcome offer for new sportsbook users!
• Compare the latest NFL Odds from the best sportsbooks before placing a bet on this week's games.
• Check out the North Carolina Sportsbooks just before they launch legal online sports betting.

VegasInsider Staff

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