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Last Updated Dec 22, 2021, 15:39 PM

Total Talk - Week 14

It's Week 14 of the NFL regular season, and we have four teams on bye, including the Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles. After this week it's all hands on deck, as Saturday games kick in next week, and teams start to jockey for playoff position and/or draft position.

The Washington Football Team will officially be without QB Ryan Fitzpatrick for the remainder of the season due to hip surgery, not that he was coming back to replace QB Taylor Heinicke anytime soon.

The San Francisco 49ers might be receiving good news, as head coach Kyle Shanahan is hopeful WR Deebo Samuel (groin) will be able to return in Week 14 against the Cincinnati Bengals in a rematch of Super Bowl XVI and XXIII. Yes, the Bengals have been to the Super Bowl twice, and they could be back again soon if they keep playing the way they have been playing.

Meanwhile, Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields (rib) could be cleared to play against the Green Bay Packers, but he isn't a lock. QB Andy Dalton could make a third consecutive start in his stead.

Division Over-Under Notes

The UNDER went 2-5 in the seven NFL Divisional battles in Week 13, and that's 12-3 to the UNDER in the past three weeks. We have seven more divisional matchups on tap for Sunday and Monday. 

Dallas at Washington: The Cowboys have hit the UNDER in five of the past six outings, with the offense up and down lately. They have posted 27, 33, 9, 43 and 16 across the past five outings.

Washington is also on a nice UNDER run, going 6-1 in the past seven games, including a pair of 17-15 victories in row, the first time in NFL history that has ever been accomplished. The defense has really turned it up, allowing 15, 15, 21, 19 and 17 across the past five outings.

In this series, you can generally expect points. The OVER has hit in nine of the past 11 meetings, including a 41-16 win in Dallas on Thanksgiving. Of course, last season's meeting at FedEx Field was a 25-3 loss by the Cowboys when QB Kyle Allen led WFT past QBs Andy Dalton and Ben DiNucci.

Jacksonville at Tennessee: The Jaguars enter on a 7-0 UNDER run dating back to a 23-20 win in London against the Miami Dolphins, and the offense has been absolutely putrid with 7, 14, 10, 17, 9 and 7 in the previous six outings. The last OVER was actually a 37-19 victory against the Titans in Week 5 at TIAA Bank Stadium in Duval.

The offense has folded across the past two games, posting 13 in each outing. The OVER-UNDER has alternated in each of the past seven outings, with an UNDER due if you believe in those type of coincidental trends.

The UNDER is also 8-0 in the past eight for the Jags following a non-cover, and 5-0 in the past five after a victory. The UNDER is also 16-5 in the past 21 for J'ville against teams with a winning overall record.

Las Vegas at Kansas City: The UNDER and OVER has alternated in each of the past six for the Raiders. Las Vegas has seen the offense struggle lately, going for 15, 36, 13, 14 and 16 across the past five outings. That Thanksgiving OT win in Dallas was the 36-point effort, and the outlier.

The OVER cashed in Week 10 in Vegas between these two teams, a 41-14 win against the Chiefs. That OVER result was the only one in the past seven outings for Kansas City, and the UNDER has hit in four in a row at home for the Chiefs dating back to Week 5.

The OVER has hit in five of the past six AFC West Division games, while going 10-4-1 in the past 15 against winning teams. The UNDER is 13-3 in the past 16 meetings at Arrowhead between these bitter rivals, too.

Atlanta at Carolina: The Falcons have really struggled on offense lately, averaging just 10.3 PPG across the past four games, no surprise that the UNDER has hit in each of those outings.

The last time these met on Halloween in Atlanta, the Panthers registered a 19-13 victory. That's a frequent happening when these teams get together, going 13-3-1 in the past 17 meetings, and 15-4-2 in the past 21 meetings in Charlotte, too.

The Panthers are coming off a bye week, with the OVER hitting in eight straight following a rest. But the UNDER is 4-1 in the five divisional games, and 5-2 in the past seven at home.

Baltimore at Cleveland: Due to a little scheduling quirk, the Browns actually play the Ravens in consecutive games, sandwiched around a bye. It's the first time an NFL team has faced the same opponent in consecutive regular-season games since 1991.

The last time they met in Charm City, the Ravens posted a 16-10 win. That's consecutive UNDER results for the Browns, and the offense has managed a total of just 30 points in the previous three outings

The UNDER has connected in five in a row on the road for Baltimore, while going 4-0 in the past four, too. The Browns, who enter this one as a slight favorite, have hit the UNDER in five of the past six as a fave, and four of the past five at home.

Chicago at Green Bay: (see below in primetime section)

L.A. Rams at Arizona: (see below in primetime section)

Non-Conference Angles

Week 13 featured four non-conference matchups and the UNDER went 3-1. We have seven more AFC vs. NFC battles on tap for the Week 14 schedule.

Pittsburgh at Minnesota (Thurs.): The Steelers travel to meet the Vikings on a short week. The past 10 primetime games have seen the UNDER connect nine times. Pittsburgh has gone for 20, 10, 37 and 16 across the past four outings, splitting the OVER-UNDER in each of the past four.

The UNDER is 2-1 in Pittsburgh's previous three against NFC North teams, and 3-1 in four games vs. NFC this season.

The Vikings are reeling after a 29-27 loss in Detroit, the third straight OVER. Minnesota's offense hasn't been the problem, scoring 26 or more points in five straight outings. The defense is a reason the Vikes are on the outside looking in for the playoffs, allowing 20 or more points in seven consecutive contests.

Seattle at Houston: The Seahawks had a 30-23 victory at home againts the San Francisco 49ers last week, a rare OVER result. That snapped a 9-0 run for the UNDER, the longest such streak in the NFL this season. It was just the second OVER this season for Seattle, too. It was only the third time Seattle has hit for 30 or more in a single game this season.

The Seahawks cashed the UNDER in the most recent game against an AFC foe in Week 8 against Jacksonville, and the UNDER is 3-1 in the first four games against an AFC opponent for Seattle.

The Texans were blanked last week in Indianapolis, and Houston's offense continues to flounder. They have 0, 14, 22, 9, 22, 5 and 3 across the past seven games. The UNDER is 2-1 in the first three against NFC foes for the Texans. 

New Orleans at N.Y. Jets: The Saints lost 27-17 against the Dallas Cowboys last Thursday, hitting the UNDER. That's back-to-back UNDER results for New Orleans since opening the season on a 3-0 run. The UNDER has hit in two of the first three against AFC opponents.

The Jets defense has at least been serviceable in the past three outings, averaging 23.7 PPG. That's not great, but that combined with its flagging offense has led to a pair of UNDER results in the past three. The OVER is 2-1 in the past three against NFC foes.

The OVER is 7-2 in the past nine games overall for the Jets, while going 7-2 in the past nine as an underdog, too.

Detroit at Denver: The UNDER has hit in three of the past four outings, with a season-high 29 points against the Minnesota Vikings last Sunday. That helped the Lions hit a rare OVER, just the second time in the past 10 outings. The UNDER is 4-0 in the first four against AFC teams for the Lions.

The Broncos managed just nine points in a Sunday night loss in Kansas City, the team's sixth consecutive UNDER. The defense has allowed 22, 13, 30, 16, 10 and 17 during the six-game run. Three of those games were against NFC foes, and the UNDER is 4-0 in the first four against NFC opponents this season.

N.Y. Giants at L.A. Chargers: The Chargers rolled up 41 points for the second time in three games, and they have alternated OVER-UNDER results across the past five outings. The UNDER is 3-1 in four games against NFC teams this season.

The UNDER has hit in the past six outings for the G-Men, as the offense has managed just 9, 13, 10, 23, 17, 25 and 11 across the past seven contests. The defense has allowed just 16.0 PPG across the past six outings, too

The UNDER is 3-0-1 for the Bolts in the past four against NFC teams, too.

San Francisco at Cincinnati: The 49ers have figured out the offense in the past two, averaging 28.5 PPG. They might have Samuel back, and that's a huge deal for the offense and potential OVER bettors.

The OVER-UNDER is 1-1 in the past two games against AFC foes for the Niners. Frisco plays an AFC opponent three times in the next four weekends.

The Bengals have allowed 34 or more points in three of the past five outings, and the OVER is on a 5-1 run for Cincinnati across the past six weeks. The UNDER has cashed in three of four outings against NFC teams this season for the 'Nati.

Buffalo at Tampa Bay: The Bills saw the UNDER easily cash on Monday night in that windy, blustery, freezing-cold game at home against the Patriots. The UNDER is 4-2 across the past six games overall for the Bills.

The OVER-UNDER is 1-1 in the past two against NFC teams for the Bills, including a 31-6 win on Thanksgiving in New Orleans to hit the UNDER.

The OVER has hit in six straight as an underdog, while going 6-0 in the past six as an underdog, and 4-0 in the past four as a road 'dog.

Primetime Notes

The UNDER was a perfect 3-0 again in the three primetime games in Week 13. That's now 9-1 in the past 10 primetime games, and the UNDER has produced a 22-14-1 (61.1%) clip in 37 primetime games so far this season.

Sunday Night Football Notes

The Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers hook up for Sunday Night Football in an NFC North Division battle. These teams met in Week 6 in Chicago, with the Packers coming away with a 24-14 win as the UNDER connected. You might remember that's the game QB Aaron Rodgers let everyone know at Soldier Field that he owns the Bears.

The UNDER has cashed in eight of the past 11 games overall for the Bears, too, while hitting in 16 of the past 23 as a road underdog, and six of eight against winning teams.

The Pack have been all about the UNDER this season. The defense has allowed 20.2 PPG, ranking fifth in the NFL overall. The UNDER has cashed in seven of the past nine against teams with a losing record, while the OVER is 7-2 in the past nine vs. NFC North Division clubs.

Monday Night Football Notes

The Los Angeles Rams-Arizona Cardinals meet on Monday Night Football for the first time since Week 4. The Cardinals worked over the Rams at SoFi, and now L.A. looks for revenge. L.A. has re-discovered the offense in the past two outings, going for 32.5 PPG. The defense has been an issue lately, giving up 22 or more points in four of the past five outings, with seven points yielded to the Jaguars last weekend.

The UNDER has hit in three of the past four games overall for the Rams, and 5-2-1 across the past eight. For the Cards, the OVER has hit in three of the past four.

For the Rams, the UNDER is 7-3 in the past 10 against divisional foes, while going 3-1-1 in the past five against NFC teams.

Fearless Predictions

It was a decent showing last week, although the teaser didn't come through. Still, posting a 3-1 (+200), was solid. That's a season total of 15-9 and (+610). Let's keep adding to that bankroll for Week 14 and down the stretch, as we need money to spend for the Super Bowl.

  • Best Over: Over 49ers at Bengals
  • Best Under: Under 42 Lions at Broncos
  • Best First-Half Total: Over 25.5 Rams at Cardinals (MNF)

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7, +135)

  • Under 51 Jaguars at Titans
  • Under 50 Falcons at Panthers
  • Under 48.5 Seahawks at Texans
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