Last Updated Dec 24, 2021, 7:00 PM

Week 16 Best Props & Player Market Bets

Stuart Durst is back to give his best prop bets and player market wagers to consider for Week 16 of the NFL season. Check out his top free plays below!

Zach Ertz (ARI/TE) - Over 44.5 Receiving Yards

Starting out here with a Spicy Saturday night game. Ertz may be remembered as being a very talented tight end that was forced to split work in Philadelphia with Dallas Goedert. Since joining his new team, Ertz has had a relatively successful season helping out the Cardinals. In the eight weeks since he's joined the Cardinals, he's gone over 40 yards in six of them and additionally seen 5+ targets in 6 of 8.

Over the last two games there has been a clear surge in Ertz’s production and hes has really established himself as an even bigger target in this offense, especially with injuries to DeAndre Hopkins. In those two games, he's gone 6-74 and 5-42 seeing 7 and 11 targets in those games. Due to injury, Kyler Murray has seemingly become more of a pocket passer over these last couple weeks and Ertz has clearly stepped up as one of his favorite targets. Without Hopkins, Veteran AJ Green and slot receiver Cristian Kirk will be his biggest competition, in a must win game there should be plenty to go around.

Lets Look at how the colts have done against tight ends recently:

  • Hunter Henry - 6-66-2
  • Parahaoh Brown - 4-23
  • Gronk 7-123
  • Dawson Knox 6-80
  • Dan Arnold 5-67

Wow. When first doing my weekly research, I knew Ertz was someone I was gonna target but these numbers are insane. Besides a dud from Brown (his best week of the year) anytime this Colts defense faced an above average tight end, they buckled. What's even more crazy is, in four of those five games, the tight end listed above was the teams leading receiver that week. It's clear the colts have a good defense, but tight end is an obvious weak spot.

Matthew Stafford (LAR/QB) Most Passing Yards

Let's start out by stating the obvious, it's been a rough couple weeks for the former Lions quarterback. Stafford was expected to come into this Rams system and immediately become an MVP frontrunner, which became obvious seeing his MVP odds drop all throughout the preseason. While Stafford has had a fairly good season, he's faced plenty of scrutiny in recent weeks for his performance. Even with two underwhelming weeks in a row, he's still thrown for 300+ yards in 6 games this season and has clearly shown his upside over the course of his career.

When looking at some of his close competition, judging by the odds given, hes also has a much better matchup. The vikings have been one of the worst pass defenses in the league all year, allowing 285 to fields, 296 to Goff, 308 to Big Ben and 230 to Jimmy G over the last couple weeks. When not playing some of the worst passing attacks in the league, the Vikings have been creamed. Against Aaron Rodgers they allowed 385 passing yards along with 324 to the Cooper Rush lead Cowboys and 400 yards to Kyler Murray. Patrick Mahomes gets a tough Steelers matchup and Dak Prescott gets a Washington defense in a must win game.

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