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Jan 21, 2022

NFL Divisional Round Prop Picks & Predictions

RYAN TANNEHILL (TEN/QB) – UNDER 239.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)

Following the injury to reigning Offensive Player of the Year Derrick Henry in Week 8, the Titans were forced to lean on their passing game heavily during the back-half of the season – inevitably resulting in QB Ryan Tannehill throwing for 219 YPG on roughly 31 pass attempts per game throughout the year.

I’ll take Tannehill’s passing yards under here, as Tennessee’s signal-caller has thrown for 240+ YDS just twice since Week 8 (221 YPG), with both of those performances coming against an ailing Texans squad – and I doubt we’ll see his numbers spike in the Divisional Round with Henry’s return on the horizon.

ALLEN LAZARD (GNB/WR) – ANYTIME TD (+175)

After catching just 19 passes for 223 YDS through Week 12, Packers’ WR Allen Lazard quickly gained stream down the homestretch of the regular season, considering the fourth-year Iowa State product hauled in 21 REC for 290 YDS across Green Bay’s last five contests.

I’ll back Lazard to score a TD here, as opposing defenses typically adjust coverage to provide help on Devante Adams’ side of the field once Green Bay enters the red zone, highlighted by Lazard’s five touchdown catches across the Packers’ last five games – and I think we’ll see him make another Lambeau Leap on Saturday night.

MIKE EVANS (TMB/WR) – OVER 70.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)

After hauling in a relatively pedestrian 4.6 receptions for 64.7 yards per game during the regular season, Tom Brady leaned heavily on Mike Evans in the passing game throughout Tampa’s first- round playoff matchup against Philadelphia, as Evans caught nine passes for 117 YDS and a touchdown in the Bucs’ 31-15 victory on Wild Card Weekend.

I’ll take Evans’ receiving yards over here, as Brady and Evans linked up for 7+ REC and 70+ YDS in four of the Bucs’ last six games – and with Tampa’s receiving core watered down by so many unfortunate injuries, Tom will likely target Evans even more as the matchups increasingly get tougher.

PATRICK MAHOMES – OVER 2.5 TD PASSES (+130)

After a relatively underwhelming regular-season campaign, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense absolutely exploded in their first-round playoff matchup, as Kansas City racked up 42 PTS on 478 YDS during their 42-17 victory over Pittsburgh on Wild Card Weekend – highlighted by Mahomes throwing for 404 YDS and five touchdown passes.

I’ll back Mahomes to throw three TD’s here, as the Chiefs’ signal-caller has connected for 15 touchdown passes across their latest five-game stretch – and Sunday night’s matchup should contain even more offensive fireworks than those did.

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