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NFL

Jan 28, 2022

Money Moves Conference Championship

It’s NFL Championship Sunday, the Final Four of the NFL where two teams will earn the right to play in the Super Bowl on February 13. In the AFC, bettors have come united strongly on one side while the NFC has seen good two-way betting while managing the most key number in the NFL.

How about a Rams-Chiefs Super Bowl? The Las Vegas SuperBook has posted that possible matchup already with the Chiefs -2.5 and 52.5. The SuperBook has all four possible Super Bowl matchups posted. More on those later.

That appears to be the Super Bowl most would like to see, but there’s plenty of money on the 49ers this week as long as the number is +3.5.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS

  • Date: Sunday, January 30, 2022
  • Time-Network: 6:30 p.m.- FOX
  • Location: Los Angeles, California
  • Venue: SoFi Stadium 
  • Roof: Indoors
  • Odds: Rams -3.5, O/U 45.5

“We took $200,000 on the 49ers at +3.5 and went to -3 and within an hour we had already gotten back that amount on the Rams -3,” Andrews said.

Two different sharp groups battling it out for their desired number – -110 only – and Andrews and his crew satisfy them both. Meanwhile, most of the other books basically had a closed sign up at -3.5 EV or -3 -120.

“Overall, we’re actually pretty even in dollars collected on the game between 3 and 3.5,” said Andrews, who obviously doesn’t want to get sided if the Rams win by 3 – refund the Rams bets and pay all the 49ers +3.5 bets..

Andrews started at -3.5 and has bounced back and forth to -3 three separate times over the last week. He's at -3.5 as of Friday afternoon.

The South Point also has the Rams money-line at -180/+160 as they come in winning seven of their last eight games (5-2 ATS) with the one loss coming at home to the 49ers. In fact, the Rams have lost their last six meetings with the 49ers (1-5 ATS).

The 49ers out-gained the Rams 784-to-543 between the two meetings this season, the last coming in Week 18 with the 49ers overcoming a 17-0 deficit. Deebo Samuel totaled 4 TDs, which includes rushing, receiving, and passing TDs. Matt Stafford threw four picks, one for a TD, between the two meetings. Jimmy Garoppolo is 15-4 ATS as an underdog.

How about the 49ers in the Super Bowl again? The SuperBook has the 49ers -2.5 and 48.5 against the Bengals and the Chiefs -3 and 50 against the 49ers. The Bengals have been to two Super Bowls and both were losses against the 49ers.

CINCINNATI BENGALS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

  • Date: Sunday, January 30, 2022
  • Time-Network: 3:00 p.m.- CBS
  • Location: Kansas City, Missouri
  • Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium 
  • Roof: Outdoors
  • Odds: Chiefs -7, O/U 54.5

The AFC Championship Game (3:05 pm ET) looks to have already been decided by the way bettors are betting it. The Bengals last playoff win came in 1991, now they have two playoff wins in 2022. But in most people’s minds, the Bengals beat a weak Raiders squad and the worst No. 1 seed ever (Titans). 

The South Point opened -7 and the Chiefs money kept piling up so director Chris Andrews had to make a move. "We went to Chiefs -7.5 this morning, the only 7.5-flat out there figuring I know I’m going to eventually be there and when I moved no one came running to take the Bengals +7.5, so this line may get higher,’ Andrews said.

When a bookmaker reveals a number that no one in the world has like Bengals +7.5, it’s almost an automatic that someone will jump in and buy, especially nowadays with the phones. Or like in the old days when a group would send one of their minions to drive across town for a half-point.

But no one came running for the Bengals +7.5. What’s the number they’ll bite at? Is it 8, 8.5, or 9? Is it 10? It has to at least be 10. But we don’t know yet. Maybe it’s nothing. Maybe sharp money thinks the Chiefs are playing so well right now that taking points is a dumb move.

“We don’t have very much on the Bengals, it’s been all Chiefs so far,” said Andrews. What’s so attractive about the Chiefs this week? How about winning 11 of their last 12 games (8-4 ATS), the last two scoring 42 points in each. Their offense is so in tune now after an early-season hiccup they’ve gone over in their last seven games with the only loss, 34-31, coming at Cincinnati in Week 17.

The Chiefs jumped out 14-0 in the Week 17 meeting and then Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase went off. They picked on Chiefs DB L’Jarius Sneed the rest of the game and Sneed couldn’t stop Chase from getting 11 catches for 266 yards and 3 TDs. Burrow would throw for 446 yards and 4 TDs.

“Yeah, but that was at Cincinnati,” one Chiefs bettor might say and then the Bengals bettor responds with “Yeah, but the Chiefs secondary is still playing and their best DB might be out.”

Chiefs DB Tyrann Mathieu got his bell rung early last week against the Bills and missed most of the game and is trending to play but hasn’t cleared concussion protocols as of Friday afternoon. SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay says Chiefs and over would be the worst possible two-team parlay of the day. The high number on the Bengals money-line is +290 at the South Point and Las Vegas SuperBook, Chiefs -350. Can we move to +300 to get some kind of Bengals money? Andrews says he’s still got time before making a move to attract like that on the money-line.

The totals have both been attractive for a few betting groups. “Sharp money has been on the under of both games, but the Chiefs-Bengals over has been a very popular (public) play,” Andrews said. Circa Sports opened the Chiefs-Bengals total at 53.5 and it got as high as 55 on Tuesday before settling at 54.5.

The SuperBook opened the Rams-49ers total at 46.5 and it briefly went to 47 but they’ve been at 46 since Wednesday. Station Casinos VP Jason McCormick says the sharps have been on both unders as well. He also says the worst two outcomes bet by the public would be the two favorites, Chiefs and Rams, covering. Straight bets, parlays, and teasers would all be cashing big for the little guys, Joe Public.

The SuperBook Super Bowl lookahead line for the last possible combination has the Rams -3.5 over the Bengals with a total of 49.5. All those possible lines will be altered somewhat by how well they play Sunday. It's a what-they-saw last mentality that will force bets. If the Chiefs win by 20 on Sunday, add an extra half-point on all their possibilities.

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