NFL Week 1 Parlay Picks

Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert

6 minute read

Betting expert Michael Crosson provides his top parlay selections for Week 1 of the NFL season. Odds provided by DraftKings.

ATS Parlay Best Bet

• Washington Commanders -2.5 (-110) vs. JAX
• Baltimore Ravens -7 (-110) @ NYJ

Payout: +264

Carson Wentz and the Indianapolis Colts traveled to Jacksonville with a playoff spot on the line in Week 18 last season, which was a matchup Indy was a 14-point favorite in, as the 2-14 Jaguars seemingly had nothing left to play for, and the 9-7 Colts were just a win shy of locking up an AFC Wild Card spot. However, the Colts’ offense promptly imploded, as Wentz completed just 59% of his passes for 185 yards and turned the ball over twice in a crushing 26-11 season-ending loss; and Indy wasted no time pulling the plug on its QB, as the Colts shipped Wentz to Washington in exchange for a lackluster haul of draft picks this past offseason. I’ll back Wentz to get his revenge here, as Washington posted a modest 7-10 record with a very short-handed defensive unit and Taylor Heinicke under-center last season; and despite the public’s obsessive scrutinization of Wentz, there’s no doubt he’s an upgrade at the QB position for the Commanders, and I expect them to handle business with relative ease at home in Doug Pederson’s debut for Jacksonville.

The Ravens were seemingly doomed by the injury bug from the start last year, as all three of Baltimore’s top three running backs went down with season-ending injuries prior to their Week 1 matchup against the Raiders. Baltimore barely missed a beat though, as the Ravens stormed out to an impressive 8-3 start despite injuries continuing to pile up throughout the year, especially on the defensive side of the ball. However, Lamar Jackson’s ankle injury was the straw that finally broke the camel’s back, as the Ravens limped to the finish line with six straight losses primarily quarterbacked by Tyler Huntley or Josh Johnson. I’ll back Baltimore to cover here, as Joe Flacco is 0-5 in his five starts since joining the Jets, which is no surprise considering the 37-year-old has completed just 57% of his passes for 1,202 PYDS and nine TD’s in spot appearances; and that type of performance probably won’t be enough to keep things competitive against his former squad this Sunday.

ML Parlay Best Bet

• Philadelphia Eagles ML (-195) @ DET
• Tennessee Titans ML (-250) vs. NYG
• Denver Broncos ML (-270) @ SEA

Payout: +190

Detroit finished dead-last in the NFC North with a record of 3-13-1 last season, marking the Lions’ fourth-straight last place finish in the division; and an overall record of 17-46 since the departure of head coach Jim Caldwell. Jared Goff was decent in his first campaign for Detroit, as the former Rams’ QB completed 67% of his passes for 232 PYPG and 19 TD’s across 14 contests last season, but he’ll need to bring much more to the table against playoff caliber squads like the Eagles. Philadelphia finished second in the NFC East with a record of 9-8 last season, which earned the Birds a first-round date with Tampa Bay in the playoffs and led to their inevitable demise. However, it wasn’t always sunny in Philly last season, as the Eagles posted a terrible 3-6 start to open head coach Nick Sirianni’s tenure. They quickly flipped the script though, as the Eagles posted wins in six of eight contests down the homestretch. I’ll back Philly here, as the Eagles stomped the Lions 44-6 on the road last Halloween, and there’s no reason to expect a vastly different result this time around.

Tennessee won the AFC South with a record of 12-5 last season, which beat out the second-placed Colts by a three-game margin, and narrowly topped the Chiefs for the top seed in the conference, despite All-Pro RB Derrick Henry missing nine contests with a foot injury. On the flip side, the Giants finished dead-last in the NFC East with a record of 4-13 last season, marking New York’s fifth straight season with six or less wins. However, I’d take it easy on the Giants for now, as New York posted a modest 4-7 record in contests QB Daniel Jones participated in, compared to an ugly 0-6 mark in his absence; but as far as I’m concerned, it’s still safe to assume the Giants won’t go on the road and knock off upper-tier squads like Tennessee.

Russell Wilson will waste no time making his grand return to Seattle, as the Seahawks are set to host the Broncos on Monday night, and while we should ultimately get some moderate pregame drama, this contest might get ugly in a hurry. Geno Smith gets the start at QB for Seattle this season, who’s completed just 59% of his passes for 6,917 PYDS and 34-37 TD-INT throughout his eight-year tenure, yielding a career record of 13-21 as a starter, with most of those starts coming for the Jets. On the other hand, Denver finished last in the AFC West with a record of 7-10 last season; but it wasn’t all bad for the Broncos, as they posted a sturdy 7-6 record in matchups QB Teddy Bridgewater fully participated in; and they went 0-4 in contests that he sat out. I’ll back Denver here, as the Broncos were already a solid squad before the addition of Wilson, and they should ultimately soar to new heights with an elite QB under-center; while I also have very little faith in Seattle heading into this season.

Six-Point Teaser

• Packers-Vikings Over 41 (OU 47)
• Buccaneers-Cowboys Over 44.5 (OU 50.5)

Payout: -120

The Packers and Vikings will square off for their first matchup of the year after combining for 56 PPG in their 1-1 regular season split last year. I’ll take an adjusted over here, as both meetings between these teams cleared OU 41 by at least six points last season; and while Green Bay’s offense should slightly regress due to the departure of Davante Adams, I still expect these NFC North rivals to trade punches and light up the scoreboard whenever they meet.

The Cowboys and Buccaneers will match up in Week 1 for a second straight season on Sunday, and who could blame the league for such scheduling after last year’s thrilling 31-29 victory for Tampa Bay. Last year’s 60-point total wasn’t exactly a fluke either, as the Cowboys’ offense went on to lead the entire league in scoring at 30.4 PPG, and the Buccaneers finished directly behind them at 29.9 PPG. I’ll take another adjusted over here, as both offenses lost weaponry in the pass-catching department this offseason, so it might not quite eclipse the height of their latest shootout, but over 45 PTS should still be a safe bet between a Bucs’ squad that averaged a league-high 43.3 pass attempts per game last year; and a Cowboys squad that averaged 38.4 pass attempts.

Where to place a bet this NFL Season?

• Use our exclusive BetMGM Bonus Code VIBONUS1500 to unlock BetMGM’s welcome offer for new sportsbook users!
• Compare the latest NFL Odds from the best sportsbooks before placing a bet on this week's games.
• Check out the North Carolina Sportsbooks just before they launch legal online sports betting.

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson