NFL Total Talk – Week 3

The 2022 National Football League regular season moves on to Week 3, and we're starting to get a little more of a sample size from teams. The more results we get, the more accurately we'll be able to predict for the remainder of the season.

So far, the best strategy has been to simply slam the UNDER. In Week 1, the UNDER went 11-5, and in Week 2, the UNDER was a healthy 10-5-1. That means through two weeks of NFL, the UNDER is hitting at a 67.8% clip. Eventually there is likely to be a correction, and we'll have one giant week of high-scoring affairs. Will Week 3 be when the tide turns?

Thursday Night Football

Pittsburgh at Cleveland: The Steelers head to Cleveland hoping QB Mitch Trubisky can help the team maintain the mastery of the Browns it enjoyed under QB Ben Roethlisberger. Pittsburgh's offense has looked awfully different under Trubisky, and has struggled to score points, going for 23 and 14, while the defense is doing its job fairly well. Pittsburgh held Cincinnati 20 points in its place in Week 1, and limited New England to just 17 in Week 2. Both times the UNDER connected.

Cleveland's problem hasn't been scoring, as it has posted 26 and 30 in the first two games. The issue is that the defense hasn't been able to stop anybody, allowing splash plays or big gainers at inopportune times in the second half. The Browns have allowed 24 and 31 to the Carolina Panthers and New York Jets, not exactly a murderer's row of offensive opponents. The OVER is 2-0 so far.

The UNDER cashed in both regular-season meetings in 2021, wit Cleveland falling 15-10 on its home field on Halloween. The UNDER is 5-2 across the past seven meetings in this series, too.


Division Over-Under Notes

We had five divisional matchups in Week 2, and the UNDER was a perfect 5-0. So far through two weeks of play, the UNDER is 10-1 in divisional play, or hitting at a ridiculous 90.9%.

In Week 3, we have seven more divisional matchups, including a pair of primetime games (Thursday and Monday).

New Orleans at Carolina: The Saints face a divisional opponent for the third consecutive week, and so far the OVER-UNDER is 1-1 in the first two outings. New Orleans made a late surge to top the Atlanta Falcons in Week 1, 27-26, cashing the OVER. In Week 2, points were at a premium, and the first touchdown of the game wasn't scored until the Tampa Bay Buccaneers took a 10-3 lead midway through the fourth quarter.

Panthers head coach Matt Rhule might have been an offensive genius at Baylor in his college coaching career, but this is a rather pedestrian group in Charlotte. The Panthers did score 24 on the Browns in Week 1, but with the way Cleveland's defense was dismantled by the New York Jets last week with a backup QB, that 24-point effort isn't looking as impressive. Carolina managed just 16 points on the road against the N.Y. Giants in Week 2, scoring just one touchdown.

The UNDER cashed in each meeting last season, and is on a 3-0 run overall in this series after four straight OVER results when QBs Drew Brees and Cam Newton were running the shows for their respective teams. The loser in this game the past three season has had 10 or fewer points, too.

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Buffalo at Miami: The Bills have been an offensive machine so far this season, going for 31 in Los Angeles in Week 1 to defeat the Los Angeles Rams, while defeating the Tennessee Titans at home Monday night in Week 2 by a 41-7 lopsided score.

The Dolphins know a little bit about scoring points, too. Miami is coming off a thrilling 42-38 comeback win at Baltimore, which saw QB Tua Tagovailoa toss four touchdown strikes in the fourth quarter, and six overall in the victory. It was a historic performance, too, as he became the second-youngest player to throw for at least 450 yards and six touchdowns in a game since 1950 (Patrick Mahomes is the youngest). He is also the third Dolphins QB to toss six TDs in a single game, joining Hall of Famers Dan Marino and Bob Griese for most in a single game for the Miami franchise.

The Bills head for South Florida and a grass surface at Hard Rock Stadium. The OVER is 10-2-1 in Buffalo's past 13 games on a grass surface. The OVER is also 10-4 in the past 14 meetings in this series, too, although the UNDER connected in each regular-season meeting in 2021.


Detroit at Minnesota: The Lions hit the road for the first time this season. At home, Detroit has rolled up 35 and 36 points on offense, while allowing 38 and 27, as the OVER has easily connected in each game at Ford Field.

On the flip side, the Vikings tossed a blanket on the Green Bay Packers in Week 1, winning 23-7, before losing on the road against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 2 on Monday night, 24-7. The UNDER easily cashed in both of Minnesota's first two matchups.

The OVER cashed in last season's meeting in Detroit, while the UNDER connected in the first meeting in the Twin Cities on Oct. 10, 2021. The UNDER is 8-1 in the previous nine meetings in Minnesota, too. The UNDER is also 6-2 in Detroit's past eight road games, too.


Philadelphia at Washington: The Eagles have done a good job on the offensive side of the ball, scoring 38 and 24 in the first two games. QB Jalen Hurts has thrown for 576 yards, one touchdown and one interception while funning for 147 yards and three more scores. The OVER-UNDER is 1-1 so far, but the OVER is 5-2 across the past seven games dating back to last season.

For the Commanders, QB Carson Wentz gets a crack against the team which originally drafted him, then discarded him via trade. He hasn't been the problem for the Commanders in their 1-1 start, as the offense has scored 28 and 27. Wentz has passed for 650 yards, 7 TD and 3 INT. The OVER is 2-0 in the first two games for the Commanders to date.

The UNDER has hit in two of the past three meetings in this series, including last season's meeting in Washington last season on Jan. 2, 2022.


L.A. Rams at Arizona: The Rams certainly didn't look super in Week 1, getting belted 31-10 at home as the UNDER comfortably connected. The offense was on point in Week 2, and the Rams outlasted the Atlanta Falcons 31-27 in an OVER result.

The OVER connected in Arizona's first game against the Kansas City Chiefs, falling 44-21, while a PUSH or UNDER was credited in Week 2 against the Las Vegas Raiders depending on the shop. The Cardinals defense has really had issue stopping people, currently ranking 31st against the pass with 302.0 yards per game allowed, while checking in dead-last in the NFL with 33.5 PPG.

The UNDER cashed in the NFC Wild-Card Game matchup at SoFi last season, with the Rams winning 34-11. But the OVER cashed in each regular-season meeting, with the Rams scoring 34, 30 and 20 in the three meetings in 2021, and Los Angeles rolling up 30 or more points against Arizona in nine of the past 10 meetings.


Conference Angles

In Week 2 we saw nine conference matchups on the slate, and that's where all the OVER results were located. The OVER edged the UNDER 5-4, and accounted for all of the OVER results for the entire week.

In Week 3 we have seven more conference matchups on tap. Through two weeks the OVER-UNDER is split 6-6 (50.0%) in conference play.

Kansas City at Indianapolis: The Chiefs fired out of the box with a 44-point effort on the road against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 1. Kansas City crashed back to Earth a little at home, but also faced a more stiff defense against the Los Angeles Chargers with a quick turnaround. The Chiefs hit the UNDER, barely, in last Thursday's game, but now come in with a couple of extra days of rest.

The Colts played to a 20-20 tie in Week 1 at Houston, before getting blanked 20-0 on the road against the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars. QB Matt Ryan has looked ancient overnight, RB Jonathan Taylor was bottled up, and the offense has really struggled, posting a pair of UNDER results.

The UNDER has cashed in seven in a row for Indy dating back to last season, while going 5-1 in the previous six meetings against the Chiefs, too.


Baltimore at New England: The Ravens are looking to rebound after a defensive collapse against the Miami Dolphins in Week 2. The Ravens led 35-14 heading into the fourth quarter, as the OVER was already in the bag. The Ravens were outscored 28-3 in the final 15 minutes.

The Patriots have struggled mightily on offense, going for just 7 and 17 in the first two outings. The defense has been on point, yielding just 20 and 14 points. The UNDER has connected in each of the first two games, and it hasn't really even been close, either.

On the road, the UNDER has cashed in 12 of the past 16 games on the road for the Ravens, while going 5-0 in the past five games in the month of September for the offensively-challenged Patriots. The UNDER is also 11-5 in the past 16 games after a SU win for the Pats.


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Cincinnati at N.Y. Jets: The Bengals have been consistent so far, but that's consistently bad. Cincinnati was favored by 7.5 points in each of its first two games against Pittsburgh and at Dallas, and it lost by both while cashing the UNDER in each. The offense has scored just 20 and 17, while allowing 23 and 20. The offense just hasn't had a lot of consistency and it is ruining decent defensive showings.

These teams met last season on Halloween, with the Jets outlasting the Bengals 34-31 for a rare win as the OVER was never in question. Speaking of rare wins, the Jets got one on the road in Cleveland last week, erasing a 30-17 deficit in the final two minutes to pick up the 31-30 road victory as the OVER was easily put to bed.

QB Joe Flacco was effective, and he'll get at least one more start. The defense has coughed up 24 and 30 points, so that's an area of concern if you were planning on playing the UNDER. The Jets have allowed 123.5 rushing yards per game to rank 21st in the NFL, while checking in 25th with 27.0 PPG. It sounds like a perfect situation for Joe Brrr and the 'Nati offense to get well after a slow start.


Las Vegas at Tennessee: Two winless teams meet in the Music City, and it's hard to believe one of these Super Bowl hopefuls will go home 0-3.

The reason for the slow start in Vegas is a lack of consistency on offense, as the Raiders have scored 19 and 23, while yielding 24 and 29. The UNDER has connected in each of the outings so far.

The Titans offense has also struggled early on, going for 20 and 7, including an ugly 41-7 loss at Buffalo on Monday night as the OVER came in at some shops. Tennessee ranks 25th in the NFL in passing yards per game (186.5) and rushing yards per game (86.5), while checking in 27th in total yards (273.0) and 28th in the NFL with 13.5 PPG. On defense, the Titans have allowed 31.0 PPG, ranking 31st. Once the offense gets going, and it will, the OVER should be a better play for the Titans.


Jacksonville at L.A. Chargers: The Jaguars aren't on the clock. In fact, they're seeing their AFC South Division title odds drop substantially by the day. The Jaguars have scored 22 and 24 points in the first two outings, and it is coming off a shutout win over the Colts.

The Jags played at this venue last season, losing 37-7 against the Rams at SoFi in Week 13 as the UNDER connected. The UNDER was 2-0 in Jacksonville's two trips in the Pacific Time Zone in 2021, while cashing the OVER in a 38-28 loss at L.A. Chargers in the most recent meeting Oct. 25, 2020.

The Bolts have scored 24 in each of the first two games this season, while allowing 19 and 27. The UNDER has cashed in both games for the Chargers so far.


Atlanta at Seattle: The Falcons have had the offense going well this season, posting 26 and 27 for a couple of OVER results so far. The Falcons have allowed 27 and 31 through two games, too.

The last time the Falcons traveled to the Pacific Time Zone, Atlanta cashed the UNDER at San Francisco in Week 15 in a 31-13 loss.

The Seahawks have scored just 17 and 7 in two outings so far, easily cashing the UNDER in the two meetings. The defense allowed just 16 last on MNF against Denver, while coughing up 27 in San Francisco in Week 2.

The OVER has cashed in six of the past eight meetings in the month of September, while going 22-9 in the past 31 games on a field-turf surface. It's all UNDER trends for the Seahawks lately, going 15-6 in the past 21 vs. NFC teams, and 13-6 in the past 19 on field turf.


Green Bay at Tampa Bay: The Packers opened with a 23-7 loss at Minnesota in Week 1, before topping Chicago 27-10 at home on SNF to cash the UNDER for a second consecutive game this season.

The OVER is 24-10 in the past 34 games in the month of September, while going 5-1 in the past six games following a straight-up win.

For the Bucs, the OVER is 12-5 in the past 17 games in the month of September, going for 19 and 20 in the first two games, while allowing just 3 and 10. The UNDER is 2-0 in two games to date, and it really hasn't even been close in either outing.


Non-Conference Angles

The Week 2 slate featured a pair of AFC vs. NFC battles, and we had our first push at most shops in the Cardinals-Raiders tilt. The UNDER is outpacing the OVER 4-3-1 so far through eight intra-conference matchups so far.

In Week 2 we have two AFC-NFC matchups, including a primetime battle in the mountains.

Houston at Chicago: The Texans played to a 20-20 tie in Week 1 against the Colts, and they were locked in a 16-9 defensive slog on the road against the Denver Broncos last weekend. Houston is scoring just 14.5 PPG, while allowing only 18.0 PPG. That's a perfect recipe for the UNDER, which is 2-0 to date.

For the Bears, they're also struggling to put points on the board, posting 19 and 10 through two games. The defense has coughed up 10 and 27 points, cashing the UNDER in each of their two games as well. As such, the UNDER comes in below 40 for this week's battle. The Bears have already hit a total UNDER 38.5 in the soggy opener against the 49ers, a 19-10 win by the Bears.

The UNDER is 7-1 in the past eight games on the road for the Texans, while going 7-1 in the past eight games following a cover. The UNDER is 21-7 in the past 28 games at home for the Bears, while hitting at a 4-0 clip in the past four in September. On grass, these teams have also hit the UNDER, going 32-13 in the past 45 on a grass surface for the Bears, while going 5-1 in the past six on grass for the Texans.


Primetime Notes

The UNDER was 3-1 in the four Week 2 primetime games, and the UNDER is now 6-1 (85.7%) through the first two NFL weekends. The UNDER produced at a 25-19-1 (56.9%) clip in 46 primetime games during the 2021 regular season.

Sunday Night Football Notes

San Francisco at Denver: The 49ers posted 10 points in their first road game, a 19-10 loss by QB Trey Lance on a slick surface in Chicago in Week 1. Lance fractured his ankle last weekend, and he is done for the season, so QB Jimmy Garoppolo returns as the starter. The offense responded with a 27-7 win against the Seahawks in Week 2 under Jimmy G's leadership. The defense has allowed just 19 and 7 so far, both UNDER results.

The Broncos have not flown out of the gates like many predicted. Head coach Nathaniel Hackett has been questioned in the first two games, and QB Russell Wilson is still taking time to acclimate. The natives are getting restless in the Mile High City, although really, all it takes is a trip to the dispensary to relax. Denver has scored 16 in each of the first two games, while allowing 17 and 9. The UNDER has easily hit in each game.

Wilson knows the 49ers well, and they know him. This will be an interesting game for San Francisco, as they lost starting RB Elijah Mitchell to IR in Week 1, and RB Tyrion Davis-Price was injured last week, and he will miss several weeks. The 49ers are back to Jimmy G and RB Jeff Wilson Jr., two players starring in roles where two weeks ago they were afterthoughts.


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Monday Night Football Notes

Dallas at N.Y. Giants: The Cowboys started QB Cooper Rush last week, as he took the reins for the injured QB Dak Prescott. The starter was knocked out in Week 1 due to a thumb injury which required surgery.

Dallas scored 20 last week in a win over the Cincinnati Bengals, which was a giant improvement from the 3 it posted against Tampa Bay on SNF in Week 1. The defense has been strong, allowing 19 and 17, as the UNDER has connected in both games to date.

The Giants have started out a surprising 2-0, scoring 21 and 19, which is fine. But the defense has been surprisingly strong, topping the Titans and Panthers while allowing 20 and 16. The UNDER has cashed in each outing for the G-Men, too.

The UNDER cashed in last season's meeting between these teams in New Jersey, a 21-6 win by the Pokes. The UNDER has cashed in each of the past two meetings at MetLife Stadium, too.


Fearless Predictions

Last week's predictions weren't as good as the opening week, with a Week 2 mark of 1-3, including the Three-Team Total Teaser. Overall, we're still (barely) in the black at 4-4 (+5). Let's build back that bankroll for Week 3 and down the stretch toward Super Bowl LVII in Glendale, Arizona on Feb. 12, 2023.

  • Best Over: OVER 53.5 Bills-Dolphins
  • Best Under: UNDER 47.5 Eagles-Commanders
  • Best First-Half Total: UNDER 23.5 Raiders-Titans

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7, +135)

  • UNDER 60.5 Lions-Vikings
  • UNDER 54.5 Jaguars-Chargers
  • UNDER 51.5 49ers-Broncos

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