Last Updated Oct 04, 2022, 5:58 PM

NFL Total Talk - Week 4

The 2022 National Football League regular season heads into Week 4, or nearly the quarter pole of the 17-game season. We're starting to get a pretty good idea about teams, as far as offensive and defensive performance, and how that translates to OVER and UNDER results. After this fourth game for everyone, we'll really start to be able to hone in on some current season trends and fine tune.

The UNDER continues to dominate through the early portion of the season going 30-17-1 (63.8%) to date, and especially so at night. The UNDER is now 7-3 (70%) in 10 primetime games.

Thursday Night Football

Miami at Cincinnati: The Dolphins pushed past the Buffalo Bills in an AFC East Division showdown in South Florida, and the defense showed out for the second straight home game. The UNDER is 2-0 for Miami at home, but the OVER hit in a 42-38 win at Baltimore in the only road effort so far back in Week 2.

The Bengals made a surprise run to the Super Bowl last season, but if the offense doesn't get back in gear, it might be a tall order simply qualifying for the playoffs. The Cincinnati offense did post a season-high 27 points in its first win against the New York Jets in Week 3, but the team ranks in the bottom third in total yards per game, rushing yards and turnovers. Defensively, the Bengals have been very good, allowing just 18.3 PPG, and that's been a good recipe for UNDER results. In fact, the UNDER is a perfect 3-for-3 for the 'Nati to date.

The UNDER is 5-1 in the past six road games for the Dolphins, although, again, that lone OVER result was Week 2 in Balto. The UNDER is also 10-2-1 in the past 13 Thursday appearances for Miami.

The UNDER has cashed in eight straight games for the Bengals, obviously dating back to last season. The UNDER is 5-2-1 in Cincinnati's past eight TNF showings, too.


Division Over-Under Notes

We had seven divisional matchups in Week 3, including a pair of primetime matchups. The UNDER was a perfect 5-0 in the divisional games on Sunday, while the primetime divisional matchups Thursday and Sunday saw the OVER inch across the finish line.

Through three weeks of play, the UNDER is 15-3 in divisional play, or cashing at a crazy 83.3%.

In Week 4, there are just four divisional matchups, including the Monday Night Football game between the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers (see below).

Tennessee at Indianapolis: The Titans have been a disaster this season, but finally found a team off to a more disastrous start than them - the Raiders. Tennessee scored a season-high 24 points last week, as the offense gained a little bit of confidence. However, the Titans defense could use some of that confidence, as it has coughed up 21, 41 and 22, and the OVER has cashed in each of the past two games as a result.

The Colts also earned their first win of the season last Sunday, surprising the Kansas City Chiefs 20-17. The Indy offense tied a season best with 20 points, but still has a long way to go before we trust it for OVERs. The UNDER has hit in all three games for the Colts, one of just three teams in the AFC (Bengals, Broncos), and one of only six in the entire NFL (Buccaneers, 49ers, Packers), to go 3-0 to the UNDER so far this season.

Perhaps seeing each other will spur on the offenses for both of these teams. The OVER has connected in four of the previous five meetings in the series, including a wild 34-31 win in overtime on Halloween in Indianapolis last season.


Washington at Dallas: The Commanders offense had been in bloom, producing copious amounts of points in the first two games against the Jaguars and Lions. WashCom was good for 27.5 PPG, and QB Carson Wentz was looking like the guy the Philadelphia Eagles thought they were drafting in the first round way back when. The aforementioned Eagles slapped down Wentz and company last weekend, winning 24-8 in D.C. for Washington's first UNDER result of the season.

The Cowboys have played two games without QB Dak Prescott (thumb surgery), and they're 2-0 SU. The offense has been just OK with backup QB Cooper Rush, scoring 20 and 23, but that's a hell of a lot better than the 3 it managed against the Buccaneers in Week 1. Of course, the Bengals and Giants defensive units will not be confused with that of the Bucs, either. The UNDER is 2-0-1 for Dallas so far.

The OVER has cashed in 10 of the previous 13 meetings in this series, including a perfect 7-0 in the past seven meetings at Jerry World in Arlington.


Denver at Las Vegas: The Broncos has been very ugly so far through three games in the QB Russell Wilson era, going for 16, 16 and 11 to date. The defense is certainly doing its part, allowing just 17, 9 and 10, hitting the UNDER at a 3-0 clip.

The numbers for Denver are just downright ugly on the scoreboard, although the offense has moved the ball. The team is right in the middle with 348.0 total yards per game, ranking 16th in the NFL, while going for 117.7 rushing yards per game to check in 12th. The Broncos bog down in the red zone, however, sitting dead-last in red-zone scoring percentage (TD only) at 14.29%. Seattle (31st), Houston (20th) and San Francisco (27th) are also bad in that category, and those were Denver's first three opponents. That's why we've had such boring, low-scoring games involving Denver, unless, of course, you are a defense lover or have an UNDER. If you fall into those two categories, you love what you're seeing from Denver.

Well, the Raiders rank 26th in red-zone scoring percentage (TD only) at 46.15%, so we might have another stinker on our hands in Week 4. Toss in the fact the UNDER is 9-2 in the past 11 meetings, and 5-0 in the past five meetings in Las Vegas and/or Oakland, and UNDER looks pretty, pretty, pretty...good.


Conference Angles

We had seven conference matchups in Week 3, with the OVER edging the UNDER 4-3. That's two straight weeks where the OVER outpaced the UNDER in conference games this season.

In Week 4, we have eight conference matchups, including the Dolphins-Bengals TNF game (see above), and the Vikings-Saints game in London at 9:30 a.m. ET on Sunday.

Through three weeks the OVER-UNDER is 10-9 (52.6%) in conference play.

Minnesota vs. New Orleans (from London, UK): The Vikings and Saints head overseas for the first London game of the season. These teams play at 9:30 a.m. ET at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

We saw the Jaguars stun the Dolphins 23-20 in the most recent game at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium as the UNDER cashed. The OVER cashed in the other Tottenham game between the Falcons and Jets, combining for 47 points on a total of 46. In four all-time NFL games at this venue since 2019, the OVER has hit at a 3-1 clip.

The last time we saw Minny overseas, it took care of the Cleveland Browns 33-16 at Twickenham Stadium back on Oct. 29, 2017 to cash the OVER, and the OVER is 2-0 in both London games all-time for the Vikes, also cashing against the Pittsburgh Steelers in a 34-27 win on Sept. 29, 2013. The Saints have split the OVER-UNDER 1-1 in two all-time trips to London, both at Wembley.

Minnesota registered a season-high 28 points in a four-point win over the Lions last week, cashing the OVER for the first time. The defense has allowed 24 points in each of the past two outings.

New Orleans struggled on offense for the second straight week in Carolina, managing just 14 points. The Saints have averaged just 12.0 PPG in the past two outings, both UNDER results.


L.A. Chargers at Houston: The Chargers are looking to pick themselves up and dust themselves off after getting spanked by the Jacksonville Jaguars last week, 38-10. The offense was awful, the defense was even worse. In fact, the Bolts have allowed 19, 27 and 38, which isn't great. The OVER hit in Week 3 for the Bolts for the first time this season.

Houston also hit the OVER for the first time last week, tying a season high with 20 points in a loss in Chicago. The offense hast posted 20, 9 and 20 in three games, while allowing 23, 16, 20.

Fun fact, the Chargers have cashed at the OVER at a 16-5 clip in the past 21 games in Week 4, while the Texans are performing at a 5-2 clip in Week 4, while hitting the OVER in each of the past four following a straight-up loss.


(Getty Images)

Chicago at N.Y. Giants: The Bears offense produced a season-best 23 points last week in a home win over the Houston Texans, cashing the OVER for the first time in three outings. Chicago has scored 19, 10 and 23 this season, while yielding 19, 27 and 20.

The G-Men scratched out just 16 points in a Monday night loss to the rival Dallas Cowboys, and scoring has decreased in each game since going for 21 in Week 1. The Giants posted 19 in a win last week over the Panthers, then the 16 on MNF. The UNDER is 2-0-1 for New York so far.

These teams met last season, a 29-3 win for the Bears in Chitown as the UNDER hit. The UNDER has cashed in each of the past three in the series since Nov. 24, 2019, all meetings at Soldier Field. The last meeting at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey on Dec. 2, 2018 resulted in a 30-27 win by the Giants in OT, good for an OVER. The UNDER is 2-1 in the past three meetings in the Meadowlands since Oct. 3, 2010, however.


Seattle at Detroit: Like so many teams above, the Seahawks also scored a season high in points last week, dropping 23 on the Falcons for the first OVER result of 2022. The defense yielded 27 points, the same total it allowed in Week 2 in San Francisco.

It's been all about the OVER for the Lions so far, posting 35, 36 and 24 on offense while serving up 38, 27 and 28 on defense. We're likely to see totals of 50 or higher for the Lions until further notice, and even that might not be enough.


N.Y. Jets at Pittsburgh: The Jets offense will welcome QB Zach Wilson (knee surgery) back from a preseason injury, as he makes his regular-season debut. We'll see if there is some rust. The bad news for the Jets is that OT George Fant (knee) was placed on IR, so Gang Green is down to a third-string tackle and career backup to protect the blindside of Wilson. What could go wrong?

The Jets have scored 12 or fewer points in two of three games this season, with a 31-point performance in Cleveland in Week 2 as the outlier. In that win over the Browns, the Jets scored 14 points in the final 1:55, so it wasn't like they were tearing it up all day in that one, either.

The Steelers managed 17 points for an OVER result against those aforementioned Browns last week, also its first OVER in three games overall this season. QB Mitchell Trubisky has led the offense to 23, 14 and 17 points so far.


Buffalo at Baltimore: The Bills scored 72 total points in the first two games, and everyone was giving them their flowers. Then, Buffalo took a trip to South Beach last week, losing 21-19 in an UNDER result, and some of the adoration has stopped. The UNDER is 2-1 for Buffalo so far, as the defense has allowed 10, 7 and 21.

Defense will be needed against QB Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, who has piled up 38 and 37 in the past two games, including 80 combined points in a Week 2 game against those very same Dolphins in Charm City. The OVER has obviously cashed in each of the past two for Balto.

In the past five meetings between these teams, the UNDER is 4-1, with the past two featuring a Lamar vs. Josh Allen battle. Jackson was dinged for a 101-yard pick-six by Taron Johnson in the most recent meeting in Buffalo on Jan. 16, 2021 in a playoff game as the Bills won 17-3.


Arizona at Carolina: The Cardinals offense was shut down by the defending champ Rams in the desert last weekend, scoring a season-low 12 points. In two games in regulation, the Cardinals are averaging 16.5 PPG, and Arizona has hit the UNDER in its only previous road game this season.

Meanwhile in Charlotte, QB Baker Mayfield ranks last in the NFL in QBR, and the team has managed 24, 16 and 22 through three games, including a scoop-and-score from the defense in Week 3. The defense has done its job, allowing just 16.5 PPG in the past two games, both UNDER results.


Non-Conference Angles

The Week 3 schedule had just two AFC-NFC matchups, with the OVER-UNDER splitting 1-1. The UNDER is 5-4-1 (55.6%) across 10 intra-conference matchups to date.

In Week 4 we have four AFC-NFC matchups, including a primetime matchup down in Tampa - or perhaps a neutral site. More on that below.

Cleveland at Atlanta: The Browns hit the road for Atlanta, and Cleveland is the only team in the AFC to hit the OVER in each of its first three games this season, and there are just two other teams in the NFL to go 3-for-3 on the OVER - the Lions and these Falcons.

Cleveland has scored 26, 30 and 29 so far, while allowing 24, 31 and 17. Atlanta has been consistent on offense with new QB Marcus Mariota, scoring 26, 27 and 27, while coughing up 27, 31 and 23.


Jacksonville at Philadelphia: How many people highlighted the Jaguars-Eagles as a game of interest when the NFL schedule was announced? Not many did, but this is one of the best games on the Week 4 slate.

Jacksonville isn't a joke anymore, especially after whipping the Chargers in their pad last week, 38-10. The Jags have scored at least 22 points in each of the first three games, and the defense has allowed just 10 total points in the past two games. The Jaguars had a high of 26 points last season, coming in a Week 18 game against Indianapolis, and the 38 points were the most since a 38-20 win Dec. 29, 2019, also against the Colts.

Philly's offense has been rolling along, going for 38, 24 and 24 through three games, but the UNDER is 2-1 because the Eagles have allowed just 15 combined points on defense in the past two outings.


New England at Green Bay: The good news is that the Patriots scored a season-high 26 points last week after going for a combined 24 in the first two games, both UNDERs. The bad news is that QB Mac Jones suffered a high-ankle sprain which will likely keep him out for multiple games. QB Brian Hoyer is expected to start, and there goes that offensive momentum.

The Packers offense was garbage in two road games against the Vikings and Bucs in Weeks 1 and 3, totaling 21 points. The Green Bay offense looked sharp in Week 2 in a SNF game win over the Bears, 27-10. Either way you slice it, the Pack has cashed the UNDER at a 3-0 clip, and now a defense which has allowed just 22 total points in the previous two games gets to face the journeyman Hoyer.


Primetime Notes

The OVER was 2-1 in the three Week 3 primetime games, and the UNDER is now 7-3 (70.0%) through the first three NFL weekends. The UNDER produced at a 25-19-1 (56.9%) clip in 46 primetime games during the 2021 regular season.

Sunday Night Football Notes

Kansas City at Tampa Bay: This game is interesting. Hurricane Ian is bearing down on the Suncoast, and it's possible this game gets moved if the Tampa Bay area makes travel iffy for fans, the teams and/or if there are power outage issues at the Ray Jay, etc.

A few ideas have been floated in the media, such as moving the game to either U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, or possibly the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, with the Saints in London this week. How's that for irony, New Orleans hosting a game for another town ravaged by a hurricane? Anyway...

If the Bucs play in Tampa, they scored a season-low 12 points last week against the Packers for an UNDER. In New Orleans in Week 2, it scratched out a 20-10 win against the Saints, also an UNDER, while scoring a 19-3 win and UNDER in Dallas. Perhaps it would like to try its hand in Minneapolis to see if things are any better. There is also a possibility this game is moved to Monday night in Tampa.

After 71 combined points on offense in the first two games, the Chiefs were handcuffed for just 17 points in a loss in Indianapolis last week, its second consecutive UNDER result.


(Getty Images)

Monday Night Football Notes

L.A. Rams at San Francisco: The Rams scored just 20 points in a win last week in Arizona, hitting the UNDER for the second time in three games. The defense was obviously much better after allowing 29.0 PPG in the first two outings.

The 49ers turned to QB Jimmy Garoppolo to start in Week 3 at Denver on SNF after QB Trey Lance was knocked out of the Week 2 win over Seattle. Jimmy G and the offense was rather uneven in an 11-10 loss. The UNDER has cashed in each of the three games for Frisco so far, allowing a total of just 37 points, or 12.3 PPG to date.

These rivals split the OVER-UNDER last season during the regular season, with the 49ers winning 31-10 in the only game in San Francisco. The Rams also won 20-17 in a playoff game as the UNDER connected on Jan. 30, and the UNDER has hit in four of the past five meetings in the series.


Fearless Predictions

Last week's predictions were just so-so, misfiring on two of the three 'best' bets, but at least cashing on a three-team UNDER teaser play. Overall, we're still (barely) in the black at 6-6 (+20). Let's build back that bankroll for Week 4 and down the stretch toward Super Bowl LVII in Glendale, Arizona on Feb. 12, 2023.

  • Best Over: OVER 49.5 Browns at Falcons
  • Best Under: UNDER 48.5 Jaguars at Eagles
  • Best First-Half Total: UNDER 23.5 Chargers at Texans

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7, +135)

  • OVER 43 Seahawks at Lions
  • UNDER 46 Bears at Giants
  • UNDER 52.5 Broncos at Raiders
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