Last Updated Oct 19, 2022, 5:27 PM

NFL Week 6 Parlay Picks and Predictions

Betting expert Michael Crosson provides his top parlay selections for Week 6 of the NFL season. Odds provided by DraftKings.

ATS Parlay Best Bet

  • Baltimore Ravens -5 (-110) at NYG
  • Arizona Cardinals -2.5 (-110) at SEA

Payout: +264

We’re just five weeks into the 2022 season, and the Giants have already eclipsed their previous win total, as the G-Men finished dead-last in the NFC East with a record of 4-13 last year, and now this season, New York enters Week 6 sitting 4-1. However, it hasn’t been pretty, as Daniel Jones and co. averaged just 20.6 PPG on 333 YPG in their first five contests, which ranks 19th and 23rd in the league respectively. But lackluster offensive play is commonly overlooked when your defense surrenders 20 PTS or less in three-of-five matchups to open the year (18.6 PPG).

The Ravens, on the other hand, posted a solid 3-2 start to the season, however, Baltimore’s record certainly doesn’t tell the full story, as Jon Harbaugh’s squad led by 17+ PTS late in both of their losses to Buffalo and Miami. In the end, they lost those two contests, but if the Ravens actually hung on to win those games, this Baltimore squad would be sitting on quite the pedestal after averaging 27.6 PPG on 352 YPG across a hypothetical 5-0 start, while also forcing a league-high 2.2 turnovers per game on the defensive side.

I’ll back Baltimore to cover here, as Brian Daboll’s squad is off to an inspiring 4-1 start to the year, however, the Giants’ offense still scored 21 PTS or less in four of their first five matchups, and while that might be enough to beat teams like Tennessee, Carolina, Chicago, and apparently Green Bay, I doubt they’ll be able to keep up with a Ravens squad that averaged 27.6 PPG against a gauntlet of defenses containing the Bills, Dolphins, Jets, Patriots, and Bengals to open the season.

The Cardinals are off to a frustrating 2-3 start to the season, however, cut them some slack, their schedule hasn’t exactly been a walk in the park, as Arizona racked up 27.5 PPG on 376 YPG across a pair of wins over the Raiders and Panthers, and averaged just 16.7 PPG on 337 YPG in losses to the Chiefs, Rams, and Eagles.

The Seahawks, on the other hand, also went 2-3 in their first five contests, however, Seattle has been lauded for its surprisingly mediocre start, as Geno Smith and co. currently rank seventh in the league in scoring and eighth in total offense at 25.4 PPG and 368 YPG, which nobody saw coming. But that still hasn’t been enough to compensate for their defense surrendering 27+ PTS in four-of-five matchups to start the season (30.8 PPG).

I’ll back Arizona to cover here, as Kyler Murray and co. should rip Seattle’s defense to shreds in Sunday’s contest, and while the Seahawks’ offense lit up the scoreboard for 34.3 PPG on 457 YPG in matchups against the Falcons, Lions, and Saints, they also looked terrible against tough San Francisco and Denver defensive fronts (12 PPG, 235 YPG). So, I think we’ll see them struggle again facing a Cardinals defense that’s surrendered 20 PTS or less in three-of-five matchups so far this season.

ML Parlay Best Bet

  • Jacksonville Jaguars ML (+115) at IND
  • Cincinnati Bengals ML (-130) at NO

Payout: +280

The Colts decided to move in a different direction at QB after missing the playoffs with a record of 9-8 last season, and so far, it’s been an absolute disaster, as Indy’s offense averaged a league-worst 13.8 PPG and turned the ball over 11 times in Matt Ryan’s first five games under center, mostly thanks to Ryan’s seven interceptions and 11 fumbles. (three fumbles lost)

The Jaguars, on the other hand, played some impressive football in their first three contests under new head coach Doug Pederson, as Jacksonville averaged 28 PPG and turned the ball over just once across a solid 2-1 start against the Commanders, Colts, and Chargers. However, Trevor Lawrence and co. have been incredibly careless with the ball the last few weeks, as the Jaguars scored just 13.5 PPG and turned the ball over seven times in losses to the Eagles and Texans in Weeks 4 and 5.

I’ll back Jacksonville here, as this is actually the second meeting of the year between these AFC South rivals, as the Jaguars held Indy to 218 total yards and forced three turnovers en route to a dominant 24-0 home win over the Colts back in Week 2. And while it’s probably not fair to expect another shutout performance from the Jags’ defense, the Colts’ have now scored 20 PTS or less in five straight matchups to open the season, so I like my chances with a Jacksonville squad that’s scored 21+ PTS in four-of-five contests (22.2 PPG).

The Bengals stumbled out to an incredibly disappointing start to the season, as Cincinnati opened with a pair of head-scratching losses to Pittsburgh and Dallas, while averaging just 18.5 PPG and turning the ball over five times across those affairs. However, the Bengals looked much better in Weeks 3 through 5, as Cincy cruised to double-digit victories over the Jets and Dolphins prior to their narrow 19-17 loss in Baltimore this past Sunday.

New Orleans, on the other hand, has been on quite the rollercoaster to open the season, as the Saints averaged 33 PPG on 412 YPG and turned the ball over three times in wins over Atlanta and Seattle in Weeks 1 and 5. However, their two wins were separated by three straight losses, as the Saints scored just 16.3 PPG on 357 YPG and turned the ball over 10 times in consecutive losses to the Bucs, Panthers, and Vikings.

I’ll back Cincy here, as Joe Burrow and co. should have a field day against a Saints’ defense that’s surrendered 20+ PTS in five straight matchups to start the season (25.6 PPG).

Six-Point Teaser

  • Buccaneers-Steelers Under 50 (OU 44)
  • San Francisco 49ers +0.5 (-5.5) at ATL

Payout: -120

The Buccaneers’ offense couldn’t get anything going in the first three weeks of the season, as Tom Brady and co. scored 20 PTS or less in consecutive matchups against the Cowboys, Saints, and Packers to open the year (17 PPG, 297 YPG), despite yielding a modest record of 2-1 in those three contests. However, the Bucs looked much better in their ensuing two affairs, as Tampa Bay averaged 26 PPG on 398 YPG in matchups against the Falcons and Chiefs in Weeks 4 and 5, which includes a 10-point loss in a contest they scored 31 PTS in.

The Steelers, on the other hand, have also experienced their fair share of difficulties on offense early in the year, as Mike Tomlin’s squad averaged just 15.4 PPG on 296 YPG and turned the ball over nine times across a 1-4 skid to open the season, with their highest scoring output thus far coming in a Week 1 overtime win over the Bengals (W, 23-20 OT).

I’ll take an adjusted under here, as the Bucs have now scored 21 PTS or less and allowed 15 PTS or less in four-of-five contests to start the year, which should ultimately set the stage for a low-scoring battle against a Steelers squad that’s scored 20 PTS or less in four of their first five matchups.

Atlanta is off to an inspiring 2-3 start to the season, as the Falcons averaged 23.6 PPG on 331 across the first five weeks of the season, which includes a trio of one-possession losses to the Saints, Rams, and Bucs, plus a pair of tough victories over the Seahawks and Browns.

However, San Francisco’s defense is a totally different animal, as the Niners surrendered 12.2 PPG on 249 YPG and forced seven turnovers across a 3-2 run to open the year, with both of their losses coming in matchups their offense scored 10 PTS or less in.

These offenses are pretty even on paper, however, San Francisco owns an enormous edge on the defensive side, highlighted by the Niners holding their opponents to 19 PTS or less in five straight matchups, and the Falcons allowing 20+ PTS in five straight. So, I’ll lean with the Niners in Atlanta.

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