Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Same Game Parlay Picks and Predictions

Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert

3 minute read

Check out our same game parlay selection for Thursday night's primetime matchup between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots. Parlay odds may vary by sportsbook.

Updated on 03/17/2026

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Bills vs. Patriots SGP Picks

• Buffalo Bills Over 23.5 Points Scored (-130)
• Josh Allen (BUF) 44.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
• Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-105)

Payout: +380

Buffalo Bills Over 23.5 Points Scored

The Bills are arguably the most dangerous team in the league at full strength, as Buffalo currently ranks Top 5 in scoring on both sides of the ball, highlighted by an offense that ranks second in points scored at 28.1 PPG, along with a defense that ranks fifth in points allowed at 18.1 PPG.

However, the Bills have consistently shot themselves in the foot in the turnover department throughout, as Josh Allen and co. currently rank 30^th in the league in giveaways with 19 on the year, resulting in a relatively modest record of 8-3 on the season, in turn, paving the way for the Dolphins to rise to the top of the AFC East standings ahead of Week 13.

The Patriots escaped with a 14-10 road win in the first matchup between these teams last season, but Buffalo ran away with the following two affairs, as the Bills posted a 33-21 victory in their final meeting of the regular season, and then in the playoffs, they stomped New England by a score of 47-17.

New England is stout on the defensive side of the ball, highlighted by the Patriots holding their opponent to an average of 14.9 PPG across their last seven games. However, the Bills have now scored 27+ PTS in four of their last five contests, and I expect that trend continue after erupting for 40 PPG in their last two matchups against New England.

Josh Allen (BUF) 44.5 Rushing Yards 44.5

The Bills certainly have flaws. Their defense is currently juggling a handful of health issues, and their rushing attack in virtually nonexistent outside of the quarterback position.

However, the marginal success they experience through the run game typically stems from the quarterback position, as Allen enters Thursday averaging 51 rushing yards per game on the year, marking the first time he’s averaged 45+ yards on the ground since his rookie season when he averaged 52.4 yards per game.

Allen has now rushed for 49+ yards in four of his last five games, with his only performance falling short of that number coming in a 31-23 win over Cleveland. And I think we’ll see a similar effort on the ground this Thursday after rushing for 64+ yards in two-of-three matchups against New England last season.

Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) Over 34.5 Receiving Yards

Rhamondre Stevenson wasn’t considered an enormous part of the Patriots’ offense out of the gate, as Stevenson averaged just 52.8 rushing yards on 10.8 carries per game and 14.3 receiving yards on 2.8 receptions per game across the first four weeks of this season, with his best receiving output during that span coming in at four receptions for 28 yards against Baltimore.

However, he’s gradually blossomed into a crucial role within New England’s passing game throughout the year, as Stevenson enters Thursday following performances of 6+ receptions for 55+ receiving yards in four of his last five contests, which includes a pair of impressive outings north of 70 yards.

So, I’ll back him to keep it going through the air here, as I think we’ll see the Bills score a decent amount of points in this matchup, which should force New England to lean on its passing game more than usual, and create plenty of checkdown opportunities for Stevenson.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson