NFL Week 13 Parlay Picks and Predictions

7 minute read

Betting expert Michael Crosson provides his top parlay selections for Week 13 of the NFL season. Odds provided by DraftKings.

ATS Parlay Best Bet

Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 (-110) at CIN
Cleveland Browns -7.5 (-110) at HOU

Payout: +264

Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 at CIN

The Chiefs will visit the Bengals for a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game this Sunday, which was a contest in which Kansas City barreled out to a 21-3 first-half lead in, only to have that lead erased in the second half as Joe Burrow and co. ended up rallying from behind to escape with a three-point road victory and a trip to the Super Bowl.

However, the Bengals countered last year’s run with a disappointing 2-3 skid to kick off this season, which was an incredibly out of character stretch for this squad, as Cincy’s defense surrendered just 17.8 PPG and forced eight turnovers in their first five games of the year, but it never quite translated to success due to their offense averaging just 21.6 PPG during that timeframe.

Cincy quickly returned to form following that opening stretch, though, as the Bengals now enter Sunday following scoring outputs of 30+ PTS in four of their last six games, resulting in a sturdy record of 5-1 in those contests. And it’s not like they’ve been aided by improved health status either, highlighted by Ja’Marr Chase missing four of those affairs with a hip injury.

However, I’ll back Kansas City here, as the Bengals may have escaped with a narrow road win in last year’s conference championship game, but the Chiefs still strike me as the far superior team in this matchup, and I expect them to claim their revenge against the squad that eliminated them from last year’s playoffs.

Cleveland Browns -7.5 at HOU

The Texans are currently the worst team in the league, and at this point, it’s not much of a debate, as Houston ranks 31^st in the league in points scored at 15.8 PPG and 23^rd in points allowed at 23.6 PPG, despite partaking in a division race with only one team over the .500 mark on the season.

Things won’t get any easier for the Texans this week either, as Houston hosts Cleveland this Sunday, which is a nightmare matchup for this squad, as the Browns’ offense ranks Top 7 in the league in both rushing yards per game and yards per carry, which doesn’t bode well for a Texans’ defensive front that currently ranks 28^th in yards allowed per rush attempt.

I’ll back Cleveland to cover here, as the Browns’ offense already ranked Top 12 in the league with backup QB Jacoby Brissett under center, and while obviously, replacing him with Deshaun Watson in Week 13 won’t do much for their 30^th ranked defense, I still expect to see Cleveland run away with Sunday’s matchup against a Texans squad that’s scored 17 PTS or less in six of their last seven games.

ML Parlay Best Bet

Los Angeles Chargers ML (+115) at LV
Miami Dolphins ML (+170) at SF

Payout: +480

Los Angeles Chargers ML vs. LV

The Raiders entered the season with sky high expectations after adding All-Pro wideout Davante Adams to a squad that already made the playoffs with a record of 10-7 the year prior.

However, things haven’t exactly gone as planned thus far, as Derek Carr and co. racked up 24.1 PPG across a frustrating 4-7 start to the season, which ranks Top 10 in the league in points scored, but their improvements on the offensive side of the ball still haven’t been enough to overcome their defense ranking 26^th in points allowed at 25.1 PPG.

On the other hand, the Chargers are one of the most difficult teams to trust in the league, especially when they get roped into a shootout, as the Bolts enter Sunday having won five of their last eight games, with their only losses during that span coming in tough matchups against the Chiefs, Niners, and Seahawks.

But the oddsmakers still aren’t quite buying this L. A. squad yet, and rightfully so, as the Chargers’ latest 5-3 stretch has been very close to swinging in the opposite direction on multiple occasions, highlighted by four of their last five wins coming by narrow margins of three points or less.

I’ll take L. A. moneyline here, as Vegas enters Sunday following back-to-back overtime victories over Denver and Seattle, however, it’s nearly impossible to trust this Raiders squad after giving up 23+ PTS in 9-of-11 matchups so far this season, especially after scoring 22 PTS or less in four of their last five games.

Miami Dolphins ML vs. SF

The Dolphins have been on quite the rollercoaster so far this season, as Miami averaged 29.3 PPG on 390 YPG across their eight contests started and finished by Tua Tagovailoa, while posting a perfect 8-0 record in those matchups.

However, in the three games Tagovailoa missed or exited early, the Dolphins scored just 16 PPG on 377 YPG and turned the ball over seven times, resulting in a frustrating 0-3 skid, and a heavy downtick to their impressive numbers outside of that stretch.

On the other hand, San Francisco is a tough nut to crack, as the Niners arguably have the top defense in the league when healthy. But their offense is middle of the road, at best, highlighted by Jimmy Garoppolo and co. ranking 15^th in the league in scoring at 22.6 PPG, while turning in performances of 14 PTS or less in roughly a third of their matchups so far this season.

I’ll take Miami moneyline here, as the Niners typically thrive in matchups that allow them to lean on their defense and run the football. But I think they’ll be forced to engage in a high-scoring battle against a Dolphins squad that’s scored 30+ PTS in four straight games, and I like my chances with Miami in that scenario.

Six-Point Teaser

Commanders-Giants Under 46.5 (OU 40.5)
Broncos-Ravens Under 44.5 (OU 38.5)

Payout: -120

Commanders-Giants Under 46.5

The Giants posted a surprisingly strong first half of the season, as Brian Daboll’s squad barreled out to a red-hot 6-1 start to the year, despite averaging just 21.4 PPG on the offensive side of the ball during that timeframe.

However, the Giants have faced some excellent offenses recently, and their defense hasn’t answered the bell, highlighted by New York surrendering 27+ PTS in three of their last four games, resulting in a trio of losses to the Seahawks, Cowboys, and Lions.

Fortunately, though, Washington visits MetLife this Sunday, who plays a very similar brand of football to the G-Men, as the Commanders enter Week 13 following wins in six of their last seven games, despite their offense generating less than 20 PTS in over half of those contests.

I’ll take an adjusted under here, as I expect to see an ugly, low-scoring, NFC East battle guided by a pair of defenses that have both surrendered less than 21.5 PPG on the year, especially going up against these dreadful offenses averaging less than 20.5 PPG apiece this season.

Broncos-Ravens Under 44.5

The Broncos’ offense has been an absolute disaster this season, as Russell Wilson and co. currently rank dead-last in the league in scoring at 14.3 PPG and 26^th in yards per play at 5 YPP, resulting in a disappointing record of 3-8 thus far.

However, the Broncos’ defense certainly can’t be blamed for any struggles, as Denver currently ranks third in the league in both points allowed yards allowed per play on the other side of the ball (17.6 PPG, 4.8 YPP), which is quite the feat considering their horrendous numbers on offense.

I’ll take another adjusted under here, as the Broncos have now scored 16 PTS or less in 9-of-11 contests this season, and there will probably be even fewer possessions on the table than usual in Sunday’s matchup against a Ravens squad that ranks sixth in the league in rush attempts per game.

Where to place a bet this NFL Season?

Use our exclusive BetMGM Bonus Code VIBONUS1500 to unlock BetMGM’s welcome offer for new sportsbook users!
Compare the latest NFL Odds from the best sportsbooks before placing a bet on this week's games.
Check out the North Carolina Sportsbooks just before they launch legal online sports betting.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson