Last Updated Dec 11, 2022, 8:00 PM

Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers Picks, Predictions, Odds

The 14th Sunday of regular season NFL action will conclude with a heavyweight AFC battle between the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Chargers. Coverage begins from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.


The Chargers stand well within striking distance of a playoff spot with a record of 6-6 on the season. However, they’re still the most difficult squad to trust in football, and again, they reminded us of that notion with a frustrating 27-20 loss to the Raiders last week.

Following their loss to Vegas, the Chargers have now lost three of their last four games. Which is quite the turn of events after stringing together a 4-1 run in Weeks 4 through 9.

But to be fair, the Bolts’ schedule hasn’t exactly been a walk in the park recently, highlighted by the Chargers’ trio of losses during their latest stretch coming in tough matchups against the Niners, Chiefs, and of course, the Raiders.

While on the other hand, Miami has been on quite the rollercoaster this season, as the Dolphins averaged 27.9 PPG on 381 YPG across their nine contests started and finished by Tua Tagovailoa, while posting an impressive 8-1 record in those matchups.

However, in the three games that Tagovailoa missed or exited early, the Dolphins scored just 16 PPG on 377 YPG and turned the ball over seven times, resulting in three straight losses, and a heavy downtick to their impressive numbers outside of that stretch.

In their latest matchup against San Francisco, the Dolphins trailed by six points in the fourth quarter, and drove the ball all the way down to the Niners’ 36-yard-line with roughly six minutes left on the clock. But in a crushing turn of events, Miami coughed up its fourth turnover of the contest, which enabled the Niners to widen the final score to a margin of 33-17 with a pair of late touchdowns by Nick Bosa and Christian McCaffrey.

I’ll back Miami to cover here, as prior to last week’s loss to San Francisco, the Dolphins’ offense racked up 30+ points in four straight games, and I expect to see a similar scoring output against a Chargers squad that’s surrendered an average of 26.2 PPG on the defensive side of the ball across their last six contests.

Score Prediction: Dolphins 30, Chargers 23
Best Bet: Dolphins -3.5 (-105)


More Odds | Super Bowl Odds | Expert Picks


Date: Sunday, December 11, 2022
Matchup: AFC East vs. AFC West
Venue: SoFi Stadium
Location: Inglewood, California
Time-TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET


The Dolphins are off to a solid 8-4 start to the season, however, their record certainly doesn’t tell the full story, as Miami’s offense still ranks sixth in the league in scoring at 24.9 PPG, despite averaging just 16 PPG in their three games without Tagovailoa.

However, last week, they posted their worst performance of the year with Tua under center last week, as the Dolphins scored just 17 PTS and turned the ball over four times in a road loss to San Francisco.

But even with those four turnovers, the Dolphins still had a chance to take the lead late in the fourth quarter against a very good Niners squad. Which speaks volumes about the heightened level of potential this team wields moving forward.

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The Dolphins are 12-4 SU in their last 16 games against the Chargers. (Getty)


The Chargers appear to be drifting towards another frustrating conclusion to a regular season campaign, as Justin Herbert and co. entered Week 10 with their chests puffed out following a 4-1 run to bring their record up to 5-3 on the year. 

But after posting losses in three of their last four games, the Bolts are back to .500, and now, they desperately need wins down the stretch in order to secure a playoff spot.

Fortunately, though, their schedule gets much easier after next week, as the Chargers draw matchups against the Titans, Colts, Rams, and Broncos the rest of the way.

So, if the Bolts can split their next two games against Miami and Tennessee, there’s a pretty good chance they sneak into the playoffs with a record of 10-7 or 9-8.


  • The Dolphins are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last five games.
  • The Dolphins are 5-1 SU in their last six games.
  • The Chargers are 2-4 SU in their last six games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 15 of LA Chargers' last 17 games against Miami.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Chargers' last nine home games.
  • The Dolphins are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games against the Chargers.
  • The Dolphins are 12-4 SU in their last 16 games against the Chargers.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of Miami's last six road games.
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