Super Bowl 55 – Novelty Props Predictions
Super Bowl 55 Novelty Props Predictions
In addition to the commercials and the extravagant halftime shows, the Super Bowl has become a bonanza for prop bettors.
There are hundreds of props available to bet on for Super Bowl LV.
You can bet on things as basic as the result of the opening coin toss or as bizarre as what color Gatorade will be dumped on the winning coach.
With so many options there are plenty of opportunities to find value, so let’s get at it and take a look at my top four selections.
Although one may look chalky, I've got two long shots to keep an eye on for Super Bowl 55.
WILL A QUARTERBACK HAVE A RECEPTION?
Yes +600 No -900
The basis of this prop is the famed Philly Special.
Nick Foles became the third quarterback in Super Bowl history to catch a touchdown pass when he caught a one-yard TD from Trey Burton to help lead the Philadelphia Eagles past the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LII. Tom Brady was unable to hold on to Danny Amendola’s pass on almost the exact same play call earlier in the game, further entrenching that play in Super Bowl lore.
John Elway and Jim Kelly are the only other quarterbacks to catch a pass in Super Bowl history. Elway became the first quarterback to catch a pass in the big game, hauling in a 23-yard reception during Super Bowl XXII. Kelly’s reception was not on a designed play, as he caught a pass deflected back towards him for an eight-yard loss in the Buffalo Bills’ 37-24 loss to Washington in Super Bowl XXVI.
Since only three quarterbacks have caught a pass through 54 Super Bowl games, the ‘No’ is great value even though you will be paying a lot of juice at -900.
Best Bet: No -900
It’s highly unlikely that Brady catches a pass. Over his 21-year career, Brady has only been targeted four times. His last reception was a six-yard catch during the 2018 season, and he hasn’t gotten any younger. We saw that he doesn’t have the most reliable hands in that Super Bowl loss to the Eagles, and he might be slower than most offensive linemen at this stage of his career. Also, there is no longer the element of surprise.
Andy Reid probably won’t want to risk Patrick Mahomes in this way either. Kansas City held its collective breath when Mahomes was knocked out of the Chiefs’ playoff game against Cleveland, so the team will want to avoid any unnecessary risks with its superstar quarterback. Mahomes was targeted as a receiver twice this season, but neither play resulted in a reception.
Additionally, there is no need to worry about a backup quarterback coming in and catching a pass. Neither Blaine Gabbert nor Chad Henne is athletic enough to be used as a receiver or in a trick play.
TOTAL PLAYERS WITH A RUSH ATTEMPT
Over 7.5 -120 Under 7.5 +100
|Super Bowl Rushing Attempts - History
The above table breaks down the number of players with at least one rushing attempt in every Super Bowl. There have been at least eight ball carriers in 38 of 54 Super Bowls to date. We saw at least eight players with a rushing attempt in 20 straight Super Bowls between Super Bowl XI and Super Bowl XXX, but it has been somewhat even since that point.
Kansas City is likely to have more ball carriers than Tampa Bay. Mahomes is almost guaranteed to run the ball at least once, while Brady only runs during short-yardage situations on third or fourth down at this stage in his career. Additionally, Mecole Hardman and Tyreek Hill have both run the ball multiple times this postseason.
The Chiefs should have four players carry the ball at the bare minimum. Mahomes will carry the ball at least a few times, and either Hill or Hardman will almost certainly get the call on a reverse or a sweep. Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams should each get multiple carries as the team’s top two running backs, and Le’Veon Bell might have a carry or two as well.
If the Buccaneers have four different players carry the ball, this over figures to be golden.
Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones II have split the carries the last two weeks. Brady has at least one carry in each of Tampa Bay’s playoff games so far, so only one other player would have to record a rushing attempt to make this bet a likely winner. Receivers Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Scotty Miller each have one carry this postseason, and Ke’Shawn Vaughn could run the ball too.
I think we will see five Chiefs and four Buccaneers carry the ball at least one time, making the ‘Over’ the play.
Best Bet: Over 7.5
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Player to Score First Touchdown
Cameron Brate has been one of Brady’s favorite targets in the playoffs. Brate has been targeted at least five times in each of the Buccaneers’ three postseason games.
He caught a touchdown pass against Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game, and he appeared to have another touchdown reception against Washington before it was overturned on review.
While many observers thought Rob Gronkowski would be Brady’s go-to tight end in the playoffs, Brate has seen far more action. He is a reliable target with good hands, and he will get some looks inside Kansas City’s 30-yard-line.
Given the other options available on the Bucs, Brate can get open as defenses focus on Mike Evans, Godwin, Brown, and Gronk.
Best Bet: CAMERON BRATE 22/1
Super Bowl 55 MVP Winner
It’s best to think outside of the box with your MVP play. Mahomes and Brady are the two most likely winners, but the odds on the two quarterbacks aren’t good value. However, there is a decent chance that a Tampa Bay defensive player ends up winning the Super Bowl MVP if the Buccaneers win the game.
Tampa Bay’s defensive line could have an enormous impact on Sunday. Kansas City’s offensive line is down four out of five starters from last year’s Super Bowl winning team. The Chiefs won’t have their starting tackles, and although their new guards have had time to get adjusted, they aren’t as solid as last year’s tandem.
Jason Pierre-Paul is the most likely player to take advantage of this offensive line. He has two sacks and three TFL in the postseason, and he recorded 9.5 sacks this year on his way to making the Pro Bowl.
Pierre-Paul is definitely a longshot at 75-1, but he can be a real difference maker.
Best Bet: JASON PIERRE-PAUL 75/1 TO WIN MVP
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