World Cup Group F: Odds to Win, Qualify

Dylan Wilkerson Sports Betting Expert

16 minute read

Updated on 4/21/26

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The World Cup is slated to start on June 11th, 2026. Here are the latest World Cup Group F winner odds and odds for Group F teams to qualify for the knockout round.

Updated on 4/21/26

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Odds to Win Group F

• Netherlands (53%)
• Japan (27%)
• Sweden (17%)
• Tunisia (5%)

Odds to Advance Out of Group F

• Netherlands (86%)
• Japan (80%)
• Sweden (71%)
• Tunisia (48%)

Group F Team Previews

1. Netherlands

The "Oranje" are arguably the greatest footballing nation to never win a World Cup. They arrive in North America with a balanced squad and a tactical system designed to control the rhythm of the game.

• How They Qualified: The Netherlands topped a tricky UEFA qualification group, finishing ahead of second-place Greece to secure their automatic spot.
• Team Overview: Under Ronald Koeman, the Dutch have returned to a philosophy of technical fluidity and strong defensive foundations. While they may lack the legendary "Total Football" names of the past, they are one of the most organized teams in the tournament, specializing in utilizing their ball-playing defenders to launch attacks.
• Star Players:
  • Virgil van Dijk: The captain and defensive colossus. His leadership and aerial dominance remain the cornerstone of the Dutch backline.
  • Cody Gakpo: A versatile forward who has proven he can score on the world's biggest stage, providing the creative spark in the final third.

2. Japan

The "Samurai Blue" enter 2026 with a reputation as a global giant-killer following their stunning victories over Germany and Spain in 2022. They are no longer an underdog, but a legitimate threat to win any group they are in.

• How They Qualified: Japan cruised through the AFC (Asian) Third Round, securing their 8th consecutive World Cup appearance with several games to spare.
• Team Overview: Japan is world-renowned for its tactical discipline and relentless energy. They excel in a high-pressing system and possess some of the fastest transitional play in the world. Their squad is deeply experienced, with nearly the entire starting eleven playing in Europe's top five leagues.
• Star Players:
  • Takefusa Kubo: A creative maestro in La Liga, his ability to unlock defenses with a single pass or a mazy run makes him Japan’s primary playmaker.
  • Kaoru Mitoma: One of the most feared one-on-one dribblers in the Premier League, providing the width and pace that stretches opposing defenses.

3. Sweden

After missing out in 2022, Sweden returns to the world stage with a new generation of attacking talent that has moved them away from their traditionally defensive "long-ball" reputation.

• How They Qualified: Sweden secured their spot through the UEFA play-offs, navigating a tense path to ensure the return of the "Blågult" to the finals.
• Team Overview: The modern Swedish side is far more attack-oriented than previous versions. While they remain physically imposing and excellent on set pieces, they now possess elite technical forwards who thrive in a fast-paced, vertical system. They are widely considered the "bridge" team in the group—capable of out-muscling Tunisia and out-playing Japan.
• Star Players:
  • Viktor Gyökeres: One of the most prolific strikers in Europe over the last two seasons, known for his incredible strength and clinical finishing.
  • Alexander Isak: A tall, silky forward with the skill set of a winger and the instincts of a poacher.

4. Tunisia

The "Eagles of Carthage" are making their third consecutive World Cup appearance. They are the group's "defensive wall," specializing in frustrating high-profile opponents.

• How They Qualified: Tunisia easily topped their CAF qualification group, relying on a nearly perfect defensive record at home to secure their ticket to North America.
• Team Overview: Tunisia is a "compact" team. They often play with five at the back or a very deep midfield line, looking to grind out results. They are masters of the "1-0" victory and are incredibly disciplined in their positioning, making them a very difficult team to break down even for the likes of the Netherlands.
• Star Players:
  • Ellyes Skhiri: An industrious midfielder who consistently covers the most ground in matches, acting as the defensive glue for the team.
  • Youssef Msakni: The veteran captain and creative heart of the side, responsible for providing the clinical edge on the counter-attack.

Dylan Wilkerson

Dylan Wilkerson has over 5 years of experience reporting and analyzing the sports betting industry for various sites. His portfolio includes work for SportsHandle and Action Network, in addition to VegasInsider. His favorite sports are the NFL, College Football, The PGA Tour, the LIV Tour, and Cricket. Dylan has a broad and deep understanding of various sports-related topics. More from Dylan Wilkerson