World Cup Group D: Odds to Win, Qualify

Dylan Wilkerson Sports Betting Expert

16 minute read

Updated on 4/21/26

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The World Cup is slated to start on June 11th, 2026. Here are the latest World Cup Group D winner odds and odds for Group D teams to qualify for the knockout round.

Updated on 4/21/26

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Odds to Win Group D

• USA (41%)
• Turkey (37%)
• Paraguay (17%)
• Australia (10%)

Odds to Advance Out of Group D

• USA (82%)
• Turkey (80%)
• Paraguay (66%)
• Australia (40%)

Group D Team Previews

1. United States

As the primary co-host, the USMNT enters 2026 with its most talented "Golden Generation" in history. Playing on home soil, the pressure is on to surpass their previous best and reach the deep knockout rounds.

• How They Qualified: The United States received an automatic berth as a co-host of the tournament.
• Team Overview: Now coached by Mauricio Pochettino, the U.S. plays a modern, high-pressing game. They rely on technical superiority in the midfield and explosive pace on the wings. Their experience in major European leagues has transformed them from an athletic underdog into a tactically sophisticated side.
• Star Players:
  • Christian Pulisic: The "Captain America" of the squad. His creativity and ability to score crucial goals in big moments make him the heartbeat of the team.
  • Tyler Adams: The defensive general in midfield whose ball-winning ability and leadership provide the essential cover for the backline.

2. Australia

The "Socceroos" have become a staple of the World Cup, known for their physical resilience and ability to punch above their weight on the global stage.

• How They Qualified: Australia qualified through the AFC (Asian) Third Round, securing their spot as one of the top teams in their group to clinch their 6th consecutive tournament appearance.
• Team Overview: Australia is characterized by a "never say die" attitude. They are exceptionally well-organized and dangerous on set pieces. While they lack the superstar depth of some rivals, their collective work rate and tactical discipline make them incredibly difficult to beat.
• Star Players:
  • Harry Souttar: A massive presence in central defense and a major threat in the opposition box during corners and free kicks.
  • Nestory Irankunda: The young speedster who provides the "X-factor" and raw pace capable of stretching any defense.

3. Paraguay

"La Albirroja" returns to the World Cup with a renewed focus on the defensive grit that made them a nightmare for opponents in the late 2000s.

• How They Qualified: They secured their spot through the grueling CONMEBOL (South American) qualification, finishing in the automatic spots after a series of vital home wins.
• Team Overview: Paraguay is a team built on defensive solidarity and aerial dominance. They are masters of the "low block" and look to punish teams on the counter-attack or through set-piece opportunities. They play with a physical edge that often frustrates more technical opponents.
• Star Players:
  • Miguel Almirón: The creative engine of the team. His work rate and ability to carry the ball from midfield to attack are vital for Paraguay's transitions.
  • Julio Enciso: A rising star in the Premier League, providing the flair and long-range shooting ability that can change a game in an instant.

4. Türkiye

After missing out on recent editions, the "Crescent Stars" are back with a young, exciting squad that many experts view as the dark horse of the entire tournament.

• How They Qualified: Türkiye qualified through the UEFA (European) rounds, navigating a competitive group to return to the world stage for the first time since their historic 2002 run.
• Team Overview: This Turkish side is technically gifted and plays with high emotional intensity. They favor a ball-retention style but possess the individual quality to score spectacular goals from distance. They are often backed by a massive diaspora of fans, ensuring they will have a "home" atmosphere even in North America.
• Star Players:
  • Hakan Çalhanoğlu: The captain and midfield maestro. His vision and world-class dead-ball delivery are among the best in the tournament.
  • Arda Güler: A generational talent who provides the creative spark and technical brilliance in the final third.

Dylan Wilkerson

Dylan Wilkerson has over 5 years of experience reporting and analyzing the sports betting industry for various sites. His portfolio includes work for SportsHandle and Action Network, in addition to VegasInsider. His favorite sports are the NFL, College Football, The PGA Tour, the LIV Tour, and Cricket. Dylan has a broad and deep understanding of various sports-related topics. More from Dylan Wilkerson